Quantitative multi-risk analysis for natural hazards: a framework for multi-risk modelling

This paper introduces a generic framework for multi-risk modelling developed in the project ‘Regional RiskScape’ by the Research Organizations GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand. Our goal was to develop a generic technology for modelling risks from different natural hazards and for various elements at risk. The technical framework is not dependent on the specific nature of the individual hazard nor the vulnerability and the type of the individual assets. Based on this generic framework, a software prototype has been developed, which is capable of ‘plugging in’ various natural hazards and assets without reconfiguring or adapting the generic software framework. To achieve that, we developed a set of standards for treating the fundamental components of a risk model: hazards, assets (elements at risk) and vulnerability models (or fragility functions). Thus, the developed prototype system is able to accommodate any hazard, asset or fragility model, which is provided to the system according to that standard. The software prototype was tested by modelling earthquake, volcanic ashfall, flood, wind, and tsunami risks for several urban centres and small communities in New Zealand.     

Application of portable X-ray fluorescence analyses to metabasalt stratigraphy,Plutonic Gold Mine,Western Australia

Stratigraphy, structure and host-rock chemistry are dominant controls on the location of Au in Archaean greenstone-hosted Au deposits, but the stratigraphy in such deposits is seldom obvious due to the monotonous nature of the host rocks or pervasive alteration associated with Au mineralisation. Portable, hand-held, X-ray fluorescence (pXRF) spectrometry provides a method to rapidly collect large amounts of whole-rock geochemical data that can yield new insights into both stratigraphy and Au localisation. Here we present results of pXRF analyses of samples from a representative section through Au-mineralised amphibolite-facies metabasaltic rocks at Plutonic Gold Mine, Western Australia. These data illustrate a geochemical stratigraphy in which individual lava flows can be identified on the basis of element concentrations. The most evolved basalts are at the structural base of the succession, and the least evolved at the top of the sequence, confirming previous geochemical interpretations and textural evidence that the sequence is overturned, and demonstrating for the first time that the presented section does not involve significant structural repetition. In conjunction with Au assay data, the pXRF data reveal that Au commonly occurs along basalt flow boundaries. The elemental concentration data clearly demonstrates for the first time the stratigraphic control on Au mineralisation that is not readily apparent at the macroscopic level. The methods described in this paper are readily applied, and have the potential to enhance the understanding of otherwise unclear stratigraphy and its control on mineralisation in many different types of deposits worldwide.     

The effect of the dominant polychaete Scolelepis squamata on nematode colonisation in sandy beach sediments: An experimental approach

The effect of an abundant sandy beach polychaete, Scolelepis squamata, on the colonisation of defaunated sediments by marine nematodes indicates that sandy beach fauna can be partially controlled by biological interactions within and across size groups. Experimental cores, equipped with windows allowing infaunal colonisation, were filled with defaunated sandy beach sediment containing two different treatments with and without S. squamata. These cores were inserted into microcosms filled with sediment with indigenous meiofauna collected from the field. The treatments were incubated in the laboratory at ambient temperature and salinity for 2, 7, 14 and 21 days, in order to follow the colonisation process of the defaunated sediments by the indigenous nematode fauna over time. Nematodes initially colonised both treatments, with abundances of up to 10% of the densities in the control; after 2 weeks, nematode densities in the cores without S. squamata surpassed the control densities. Nematode assemblages in both treatments were not species rich, and also differed in composition from the natural assemblages. The most successful colonising species, Enoplolaimus litoralis, was rare in the surrounding sediment, suggesting that colonisation was determined by species-specific characteristics such as body size, motility and feeding strategy. Initially the presence of macrofauna did not affect the nematode community composition, but after 2 weeks of the experiment, the presence of the polychaete seemed to facilitate the earlier establishment of non-opportunistic species.     

Interannual variability in vertical export in the Ross Sea: Magnitude, composition, and environmental correlates

The vertical flux of particulate matter from the surface of the Ross Sea, Antarctica, has been suggested as being large, with substantial seasonal and spatial variations. We conducted a study in which vertical flux was quantified using sediment traps deployed at 200 m and compared to estimates calculated from one-dimensional budgets of nutrients (nitrogen and silicon). Estimates of flux were collected at two locations in the southern Ross Sea from late December to early February during four years: 2001-2002, 2003-2004, 2004-2005, and 2005-2006. Phytoplankton biomass and vertical flux varied substantially seasonally and spatially between the two sites, and among years. The greatest flux was observed in 2001-2002, with a short-term maximum organic carbon flux of 3.13 mmol m⁻² d⁻¹, and the summer mean organic carbon flux equal to 0.93 mmol m⁻² d⁻¹. In contrast, the mean carbon flux at the same site in 2003-2004 was over an order of magnitude less, averaging 0.19 mmol m⁻² d⁻¹, despite the fact that productivity in that year was substantially greater. In 2005-206 the contribution of fecal pellets to flux was smallest among all years, and the pellet contribution ranged from <1 to more than 50% of organic flux. As the moorings also had surface layer fluorometers, the relationship between surface biomass and sediment trap flux was compared. Temporal lags between surface fluorescence and flux at 200 m maxima in 2003-2004 and 2004-2005 ranged from two to six days; however, in 2005-2006 the temporal offset between biomass and flux was much longer, ranging from 11 to 27 days, suggesting that fecal pellet production appeared to increase the coupling between flux and surface production. Estimates of export from the upper 200 m based on one-dimensional nutrient budgets were greater than those recorded by the sediment traps. Nutrient budgets also indicated that siliceous production averaged ca. 40% of the total annual production. The variations observed in the flux of biogenic matter to depth in the Ross Sea are large, appear to reflect different forcing among years, and at present are not adequately understood. However, such variability needs to be both understood and represented in biogeochemical models to accurately assess and predict the effects of climate change on biogeochemical cycles.     

Airborne imagery of a disintegrating Sargassum drift line

Airborne hyperspectral and thermal infrared imagery collected over the Florida Current provide a view of the disintegration of a Sargassum drift line in 5 m s⁻¹ winds. The drift line consists mostly of rafts 20-80 m² in size, though aggregations larger than 1000 m² also occur. Rafts tend to be elongated, curved in the upwind direction, and 0.1-0.5 °C warmer than the surrounding ocean surface. Long weed ‘trails’ extending upwind from the rafts are evidence of plants dropping out and being left behind more rapidly drifting rafts. The raft line may be a remnant of an earlier Sargassum frontal band, which is detectible as an upwind thermal front and areas of submerged weed. Issues are identified that require future field measurements.     

NRM engagement between remote dryland communities and government agencies: Success factors from Australia

The management of dryland environments involves the interaction of multiple government agencies and citizens, and is required to respond to a wide range of responsibilities and aspirations for a given region. This paper focuses on the characteristics of engagement between management agencies and citizens in a dryland region, presented here as a series of success factors. These factors are based on empirical research carried out in the Lake Eyre Basin in Australia, one of the world’s largest inwardly draining basins. The results reinforce generic and dryland-specific factors supporting successful community engagement. The former, such as building trust, working in partnership, supporting community champions, and maintaining transparency, are necessary but insufficient for achieving successful community engagement in the case study region. In addition, community engagement in the case study region also required respecting the extreme conditions and extraordinary variability of the Basin and committing to longer timeframes even if the outcomes of community engagement are slow to accrue, in order to take advantage of opportunities in more prosperous times.     

Varved sediments of Lake Yoa (Ounianga Kebir,Chad) reveal progressive drying of the Sahara during the last 6100 years

The sedimentological and geochemical properties of a 7·47 m long laminated sequence from hypersaline Lake Yoa in northern Chad have been investigated, representing a unique, continuous 6100 year long continental record of climate and environmental change in the eastern Central Sahara. These data were used to reconstruct the Mid to Late Holocene history of this currently hyper‐arid region, in order to address the question of whether the Mid Holocene environmental transition from a humid to a dry Sahara was progressive or abrupt. This study involved a suite of analyses, including petrographic and scanning electron microscope examination of thin sections, X‐ray diffraction, X‐radiography, granulometry, loss on ignition and magnetic susceptibility. The potential of micro‐X‐ray fluorescence core scanning was tested at very high resolution. Detailed microscopic investigation revealed the sedimentary processes responsible for the formation of the fine laminations, identified the season during which they were formed, and confirmed their annually rhythmic nature. High‐resolution X‐ray fluorescence core scanning allowed the distinction of each individual lamination over the entire record, opening new perspectives for the study of finely laminated sediment sequences. Geochemical and mineralogical data reveal that, due to decreasing monsoon rainfall combined with continuous and strong evaporation, the hydrologically open and fresh Mid Holocene Lake Yoa slowly evolved into the present‐day hypersaline brine depleted in calcium, which has existed for about the past 1050 years. During the oldest part of the investigated period, Lake Yoa probably contained a permanently stratified lower water column that was nevertheless disrupted relatively frequently by mixing events. Deep‐water anoxia became more stable because of increased salinity‐driven density stratification. In parallel, the sediment grain‐size proxies record a progressive increase of aeolian input in the course of the last 6100 years. Altogether, all geochemical and sedimentological indicators point to a progressive drying of the eastern Central Sahara, strengthening previous conclusions based on palaeoecological indicators.     

FT-IR measurements of cold C3H8 cross sections at 7–15 μm for Titan atmosphere

We present absorption cross sections of propane (C₃H₈) at temperatures from 145 K to 297 K in the 690–1550 cm⁻¹ region. Pure and N₂-broadened spectra were measured at pressures from 3 Torr to 742 Torr using a Bruker IFS125 FT-IR spectrometer at JPL. The gas absorption cell, developed at Connecticut College, was cooled by a closed-cycle helium refrigerator. The cross sections were measured and compiled for individual spectra recorded at various experimental conditions covering the planetary atmosphere and Titan. In addition to the cross sections, a propane pseudoline list with a frequency grid of 0.005 cm⁻¹, was fitted to the 34 laboratory spectra. Line intensities and lower state energies were retrieved for each line, assuming a constant width. Validation tests showed that the pseudoline list reproduces discrete absorption features and continuum, the latter contributed by numerous weak and hot band features, in most of the observed spectra within 3%. Based on the pseudoline list, the total intensity in the 690–1550 cm⁻¹ region was determined to be 52.93 (±3%) × 10⁻¹⁹ cm⁻¹/(molecule cm⁻²) at 296 K; this value is within 3% of the average from four earlier studies. Finally, the merit of the pseudoline approach is addressed for heavy polyatomic molecules in support of spectroscopic observation of atmospheres of Titan and other planets. The cold cross sections will be submitted to the HITRAN database (hitran.harvard.edu), and the list of C₃H₈ pseudolines will be available from a MK-IV website of JPL (http://mark4sun.jpl.nasa.gov/data/spec/Pseudo).     

A search for amino acids and nucleobases in the Martian meteorite Roberts Massif 04262 using liquid chromatography‐mass spectrometry

The investigation into whether Mars contains signatures of past or present life is of great interest to science and society. Amino acids and nucleobases are compounds that are essential for all known life on Earth and are excellent target molecules in the search for potential Martian biomarkers or prebiotic chemistry. Martian meteorites represent the only samples from Mars that can be studied directly in the laboratory on Earth. Here, we analyzed the amino acid and nucleobase content of the shergottite Roberts Massif (RBT) 04262 using liquid chromatography‐mass spectrometry. We did not detect any nucleobases above our detection limit in formic acid extracts; however, we did measure a suite of protein and nonprotein amino acids in hot‐water extracts with high relative abundances of β‐alanine and γ‐amino‐n‐butyric acid. The presence of only low (to absent) levels of several proteinogenic amino acids and a lack of nucleobases suggest that this meteorite fragment is fairly uncontaminated with respect to these common biological compounds. The distribution of straight‐chained amine‐terminal n‐ω‐amino acids in RBT 04262 resembled those previously measured in thermally altered carbonaceous meteorites (Burton et al. 2012; Chan et al. 2012). A carbon isotope ratio of ?24‰ ± 6‰ for β‐alanine in RBT 04262 is in the range of reduced organic carbon previously measured in Martian meteorites (Steele et al. 2012). The presence of n‐ω‐amino acids may be due to a high temperature Fischer‐Tropsch‐type synthesis during igneous processing on Mars or impact ejection of the meteorites from Mars, but more experimental data are needed to support these hypotheses.