Spatial crime distribution and prediction for sporting events using social media

ABSTRACT

Sporting events attract high volumes of people, which in turn leads to increased use of social media. In addition, research shows that sporting events may trigger violent behavior that can lead to crime. This study analyses the spatial relationships between crime occurrences, demographic, socio-economic and environmental variables, together with geo-located Twitter messages and their ‘violent’ subsets. The analysis compares basketball and hockey game days and non-game days. Moreover, this research aims to analyze crime prediction models using historical crime data as a basis and then introducing tweets and additional variables in their role as covariates of crime. First, this study investigates the spatial distribution of and correlation between crime and tweets during the same temporal periods. Feature selection models are applied in order to identify the best explanatory variables. Then, we apply localized kernel density estimation model for crime prediction during basketball and hockey games, and on non-game days. Findings from this study show that Twitter data, and a subset of violent tweets, are useful in building prediction models for the seven investigated crime types for home and away sporting events, and non-game days, with different levels of improvement.     

Assessment of reference evapotranspiration across an arid urban environment having poor data monitoring system

Estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) in urban areas is challenging but essential in arid urban climates. To evaluate ET₀ in an urban environment and non-urban areas, air temperature and relative humidity were measured at five different sites across the arid city of Isfahan, Iran, over 4 years. Wind speed and sunshine hours were obtained from an urban surrounding weather station over the same period and used to estimate ET₀. Calculated ET₀ was compared with satellite-based ET₀ retrieved from the MOD16A2 PET product. Although MODIS PET was strongly correlated with the Valiantzas equation, it overestimated ET₀ and showed average accuracy (r = 0.93–0.94, RMSE = 1.18–1.28 mm/day, MBE = 0.73–0.84 mm/day). The highest ET₀ differences between an urban green space and a non-urban area were 1.1 and 0.87 mm/day, which were estimated by ground measurements and MODIS PET, respectively. The sensitivity of ET₀ to wind speed and sunshine hours indicated a significant effect on cumulative ET₀ at urban sites compared to the non-urban site, which has a considerable impact on the amount of irrigation required in those areas. Although MODIS PET requires improvement to accurately reflect field level microclimate conditions affecting ET₀, it is beneficial to hydrological applications and water resource managers especially in areas where data is limited. In addition, our results indicated that using limited data methods or meteorological data from regional weather stations, leads to incorrect estimation of ET₀ in urban areas. Therefore, decision-makers and urban planners should consider the importance of precisely estimating ET₀ to optimize management of urban green space irrigation, especially in arid and semi-arid climates such as the city of Isfahan.     

Predictive value of Keetch-Byram Drought Index for cereal yields in a semi-arid environment

The study examines the potential of urban roofs to reduce the urban heat island (UHI) effect by changing their reflectivity and implementing vegetation (green roofs) using the example of the City of Vienna. The urban modelling simulations are performed based on high-resolution orography and land use data, climatological observations, surface albedo values from satellite imagery and registry of the green roof potential in Vienna. The modelling results show that a moderate increase in reflectivity of roofs (up to 0.45) reduces the mean summer temperatures in the densely built-up environment by approximately 0.25 °C. Applying high reflectivity materials (roof albedo up to 0.7) leads to average cooling in densely built-up area of approximately 0.5 °C. The green roofs yield a heat load reduction in similar order of magnitude as the high reflectivity materials. However, only 45 % of roof area in Vienna is suitable for greening and the green roof potential mostly applies to industrial areas in city outskirts and is therefore not sufficient for substantial reduction of the UHI effect, particularly in the city centre which has the highest heat load. The strongest cooling effect can be achieved by combining the green roofs with high reflectivity materials. In this case, using 50 or 100 % of the green roof potential and applying high reflectivity materials on the remaining surfaces have a similar cooling effect.     

A long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regions of Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole

A long-term (1948 to 2012) trend of precipitation (annual, pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon seasons) in Bangladesh was analyzed in different regions using both parametric and nonparametric approaches. Moreover, the possible teleconnections of precipitation (annual and monsoon) variability with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episode and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) were investigated using both average and individual (both positive and negative) values of ENSO index and IOD. Our findings suggested that for annual precipitation, a significant increasing monotonic trend was found in whole Bangladesh (4.87 mm/year), its western region (5.82 mm/year) including Rangpur (9.41 mm/year) and Khulna (4.95 mm/year), and Sylhet (10.12 mm/year) and Barisal (6.94 mm/year) from eastern region. In pre-monsoon, only Rangpur (2.88 mm/year) showed significant increasing trend, while in monsoon, whole Bangladesh (3.04 mm/year), Sylhet (7.17 mm/year), and Barisal (6.94 mm/year) showed similar trend. In post-monsoon, there was no significant trend. Our results also revealed that the precipitation (annual or monsoon) of whole Bangladesh and almost all of the spatial regions did not show any significant correlation with ENSO events, whereas the average IOD values showed significant correlation only in monsoon precipitation of western region. The individual positive IODs showed significant correlation in whole Bangladesh, western region, and its two divisions (Rajshahi and Khulna). So, in the context of Bangladesh climate, IOD has the more teleconnection to precipitation than that of ENSO. Our findings indicate that the co-occurrence of ENSO and IOD events may suppress their influence on each other.

     

Changing patterns in rainfall extremes in South Australia

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Daily rainfall records from seven stations in South Australia, with record lengths from 50 to 137 years and a common period of 36 years, are...     

Non-adiabatic interactions in excitedC 2 H molecules and their relationship toC 2 formation in comets

A unified picture of the photodissociation of theC ₂ H radical has been developed using the results from the latest experimental and theoretical work. This picture shows that a variety of electronic states ofC ₂ are formed during the photodissociation of theC ₂ H radical even if photoexcitation accesses only one excited state. This is because the excited states have many avoided corssings and near intersections where two electronic states come very close to one another. At these avoided crossings and near intersections, the excited radical can hop from one electronic state to another and access new final electronic states of theC ₂ radical. The complexity of the excited state surfaces also explains the bimodal rotational distributions that are observed in all of the electronic states studied. The excited states that dissociate through a direct path are limited by dynamics to produceC ₂ fragments with a modest amount of rotational energy, whereas those that dissociate by a more complex path have a greater chance to access all of phase space and produce fragments with higher rotational excitation. Finally, the theoretical transition moments and potential energy curves have been used to provide a better estimate of the photochemical lifetimes in comets of the different excited states of theC ₂ H radical. The photochemically active states are the 2²₊, 2²II, 3²II, and 3²₊, with photodissociation rate constants of 1.0×10^–6, 4.0×10^–6, 0.7×10^–6, and 1.3×10^–6s^–1, respectively. These rate constants lead to a total photochemical lifetime of 1.4×10⁵ s.     

A Geometric Computational Model for Calculation of Longwall Face Effect on Gate Roadways

In this paper a geometric computational model (GCM) has been developed for calculating the effect of longwall face on the extension of excavation-damaged zone (EDZ) above the gate roadways (main and tail gates), considering the advance longwall mining method. In this model, the stability of gate roadways are investigated based on loading effects due to EDZ and caving zone (CZ) above the longwall face, which can extend the EDZ size. The structure of GCM depends on four important factors: (1) geomechanical properties of hanging wall, (2) dip and thickness of coal seam, (3) CZ characteristics, and (4) pillar width. The investigations demonstrated that the extension of EDZ is a function of pillar width. Considering the effect of pillar width, new mathematical relationships were presented to calculate the face influence coefficient and characteristics of extended EDZ. Furthermore, taking GCM into account, a computational algorithm for stability analysis of gate roadways was suggested. Validation was carried out through instrumentation and monitoring results of a longwall face at Parvade-2 coal mine in Tabas, Iran, demonstrating good agreement between the new model and measured results. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was carried out on the effect of pillar width, bearing capacity of support system and coal seam dip.     

Rock mass rating and Kinematic analysis for slope stability investigation of Utari dam,Lalitpur district,Uttar Pradesh

Rock mass characterization of Utari dam in Lalitpur district of Uttar Pradesh was done to identify different stability classes of rock mass. For better stability of Utari dam, foundation conditions were carefully studied by detailed field investigations of the site supplemented by laboratory tests. During feasibility and preliminary stages, rock mass characterization of slopes was conducted to identify the vulnerable zones of failure. Rock mass characterization was done by compilation of information obtained from intact rock as well as from rock mass to determine its grade and long term slope stability of the site. On the basis of Rock Mass Rating (RMR) and Geological Strength Index (GSI) slope stability is identified which lies under good quality rock mass. Kinematic analysis was conducted to find out the probability for different types of structurally controlled slope failure. Microscopic analyses were conducted to identify the degree of chemical alteration of feldspar. Clay formation by sericitization along joint planes is harmful for the stability of dam structure. Remedial measures must be taken to reduce the extent of chemical alteration. Granitoids at dam site forms a compact and stable foundation consisting of four sets of joints in which two sets were prominent which are dipping on the upstream side of the dam which reveals good condition on the dam site as leakage from reservoir will be minimum and least up-thrust on the dam structure.