Seismic Hazard Estimate at the Iberian Peninsula

—?Seismic hazard at the Iberian Peninsula has been evaluated by using a methodology which combines both zonified and non-zonified probabilistic methods. Seismic sources are used when considering zones where certain calculation parameters may be considered homogeneous, as in zonified methods, while, on the other hand, earthquakes are considered wherever it has taken place, as in non-zonified methods. The methodology which is applied in this paper has been originally used to calculate the seismic hazard maps in the United States. In our case, it has been necessary to adapt the method to the specific features of the seismicity in the Iberian Peninsula and its geographical surroundings, not only with respect to its distribution and characteristics, but also with respect to the properties of the seismic catalog used.¶Geographically, the main feature of the result is the fact that it reflects both historical seismicity and current seismic clusters of the region. Despite the smoothing, maps show marked differences between several seismic zones; these differences becoming more noticeable as exposure time increases. Maximum seismic hazard is found to be in the southwestern region of the Peninsula, especially in the area of the Cape St. Vicent, and around Lisbon. The uncertainty of the results, without considering that due to the attenuation laws, as deduced from the other evaluation parameters, is quite stable, being more sensitive to the parameters b and m _max of the Gutenberg-Richter relation.     

Modelling of meteorological conditions at an urban scale for the PUMA winter campaign

For the winter 2000 campaign of the Pollution of Urban Midlands Atmosphere project, observation and numerical modelling of meteorological conditions over the West Midlands conurbation, UK, was undertaken. Modelling was performed using the regional atmospheric meteorological system (RAMS). This paper presents a comparison of modelled and observed wind and temperature for 25 and 26 January 2000. The RAMS model uses two nested grids with a mesh size of 2 km for the inner grid which is embedded in the outer grid with a mesh size of 8 km. Statistical evaluation of the model results against the observational data of wind speed, direction and temperature at 10 m was conducted. In general, the modelling results are in a reasonable agreement with observation. The statistical evaluation suggests that model performance is poorer for the inner grid than the outer grid as the model uncertainties (mainly mean bias) transfer from the outer to inner one. The low indices of agreement of temperature and wind are mainly associated with the systematic root-mean-square-difference values. For temperature, the systematic bias may also be affected by representation of cloud amount by the model. For wind, the model tends to have a poor performance for calm conditions, as under a stable anti-cyclonic situation local wind patterns associated with topography may develop, although the topography of the region is relatively flat. The results for the inner grid reveal some subtle spatial patterns at a scale smaller than 10 km near hills and valleys with differences in elevation of a few hundred metres.     

Predicting average annual groundwater levels from climatic variables: an empirical model

On the basis of one-dimensional theoretical water flow model, we demonstrate that the groundwater level variation follows a pattern similar to recharge fluctuation, with a time delay that depends on the characteristics of aquifer, recharge pattern as well as the distance between the recharge and observation locations. On the basis of a water budget model and the groundwater flow model, we propose an empirical model that links climatic variables to groundwater level. The empirical model is tested using a partial data set from historical records of water levels from more than 80 wells in a monitoring network for the carbonate rock aquifer, southern Manitoba, Canada. The testing results show that the predicted groundwater levels are very close to the observed ones in most cases. The overall average correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed water levels is 0.92. This proposed empirical statistical model could be used to predict variations in groundwater level in response to different climate scenarios in a climate change impact assessment.     

Combined GPS and InSAR Models of Postseismic Deformation from the Northridge Earthquake

--Models of combined Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data collected in the region of the Northridge earthquake indicate that significant afterslip on the main fault occurred following the earthquake. Additional shallow deformation occurred to the west of the main rupture plane. Both data sets are consistent with logarithmic time-dependent behavior following the earthquake indicative of afterslip rather than postseismic relaxation. Aftershocks account for only about 10% of the postseismic motion. The two data sets are complimentary in determining the postseismic processes. Fault afterslip and shallow deformation dominate the deformation field in the two years following the earthquake. Lower crustal deformation may play an important role later in the earthquake cycle.     

On the Generation of ULF Magnetic Variations by Conductivity Fluctuations in a Fault Zone

v--vPrior to the October 18, 1989 Loma Prieta M_s 7.1 earthquake, Fraser-Smith et al. (1990) recorded a 10-100 fold increase in ultra-low frequency (ULF) magnetic fields near the earthquake epicenter. Several mechanisms for generation of these ULF fields by fluid flow in the earth have been advanced, but all appear to require unrealistic fluid velocities or hydraulic permeabilities to match the observations. As an alternative explanation, Merzer and Klemperer (1998) proposed that the increase in ULF magnetic fields could result from induced electric currents flowing in a fault-zone made temporarily much more electrically conductive by stress-induced reorganization of pore geometry. Using a numerical model we show that while this mechanism could produce a significant increase in ULF variations, mutual induction between the fault zone and the surrounding crust would probably limit the amplitude increase to levels well below those observed at Loma Prieta. We consider a variant on this quasi-static conductive fault zone model in which low frequency telluric currents are modulated by small higher frequency variations of bulk fault zone conductivity. We show that because the spectrum of natural EM variations is red, substantially larger relative increases in ULF magnetic fields could be produced by this mechanism with even small conductivity fluctuations at these frequencies. These variations would be easy to detect with a well-designed experiment, if they occurred. In principle this mechanism could explain the Loma Prieta ULF observations, however the magnitude of conductivity fluctuations that would be required to match the very large reported amplification factors still appears to be too large to be physically plausible.     

DNAPL Characterization Methods and Approaches, Part 2: Cost Comparisons

Contamination from the use of chlorinated solvents, often classified as dense nonaqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) when in an undissolved state, pose environmental threats to ground water resources worldwide. DNAPL site characterization method performance comparisons are presented in a companion paper (Kram et al. 2001). This study compares the costs for implementing various characterization approaches using synthetic unit model scenarios (UMSs), each with particular physical characteristics. Unit costs and assumptions related to labor, equipment, and consumables are applied to determine costs associated with each approach for various UMSs. In general, the direct-push sensor systems provide cost-effective characterization information in soils that are penetrable with relatively shallow (less than 10 to 15 m) water tables. For sites with impenetrable lithology using direct-push techniques, the Ribbon NAPL Sampler Flexible Liner Underground Technologies Everting (FLUTe) membrane appears to be the most cost-effective approach. For all scenarios studied, partitioning interwell tracer tests (PITTs) are the most expensive approach due to the extensive pre-and post-PITT requirements. However, the PITT is capable of providing useful additional information, such as approximate DNAPL saturation, which is not generally available from any of the other approaches included in this comparison.     

Surface vibration due to a sequence of high speed moving harmonic rectangular loads

The transmission of vibrations over the surface of the ground, due to high-speed moving, vertical harmonic rectangular loads, is investigated theoretically. The problem is three-dimensional and the interior of the ground is modelled as an elastic half-space or a multilayered ground. The transformed solutions are obtained using the Fourier transform on the space variable. A new damping model in the spatial wavenumber domain, presented in Lefeuve-Mesgouez et al. [J. Sound. Vibr. 231 (2000) 1289] is used. Numerical results for the displacements on the surface are presented for loads moving with speeds up to and beyond the Rayleigh wave speed of the half-space.     

Gravity and magnetic signatures of volcanic plugs related to Deccan volcanism in Saurashtra, India and their physical and geochemical properties

The Bouguer anomaly and the total intensity magnetic maps of Saurashtra have delineated six circular gravity highs and magnetic anomalies of 40-60 mGal (10⁻⁵m/s²) and 800-1000 nT, respectively. Three of them in western Saurashtra coincide with known volcanic plugs associated with Deccan Volcanic Province (DVP), while the other three in SE Saurashtra coincide with rather concealed plugs exposed partially. The DVP represents different phases of eruption during 65.5±2.5 Ma from the Reunion plume. The geochemical data of the exposed rock samples from these plugs exhibit a wide variation in source composition, which varies from ultramafic/mafic to felsic composition of volcanic plugs in western Saurashtra and an alkaline composition for those in SE Saurashtra. Detailed studies of granophyres and alkaline rocks from these volcanic plugs reveal a calc-alkaline differentiation trend and a continental tectonic setting of emplacement. The alkaline plugs of SE Saurashtra are associated with NE-SW oriented structural trends, related to the Gulf of Cambay and the Cambay rift basin along the track of the Reunion plume. This indicates a deeper source for these plugs compared to those in the western part and may represent the primary source magma. The Junagadh plug with well differentiated ring complexes in western Saurashtra shows well defined centers of magnetic anomaly while the magnetic anomalies due to other plugs are diffused though of the same amplitude. This implies that other plugs are also associated with mafic/ultramafic components, which may not be differentiated and may be present at subsurface levels. Paleomagnetic measurements on surface rock samples from DVP in Saurashtra suggest a susceptibility of 5.5×10⁻² SI units with an average Koenigsberger ratio (Q_n) of almost one and average direction of remanent magnetization of D=147.4° and I=+56.1°. The virtual geomagnetic pole (VGP) position computed from the mean direction of magnetization for the volcanic plugs and Deccan basalt of Saurashtra is 30°N and 74°W, which is close to the VGP position corresponding to the early phases of Deccan eruption. Modeling of gravity and magnetic anomalies along two representative profiles across Junagadh and Barda volcanic plugs suggest a bulk density of 2900 and 2880 kg/m³, respectively and susceptibility of 3.14×10⁻² SI units with a Q_n ratio of 0.56 which are within the range of their values obtained from laboratory measurements on exposed rock samples. The same order of gravity and magnetic anomalies observed over the volcanic plugs of Saurashtra indicates almost similar bulk physical properties for them. The inferred directions of magnetization from magnetic anomalies, however, are D=337° and 340° and I=−38° and −50° which represent the bulk direction of magnetization and also indicate a reversal of the magnetic field during the eruption of these plugs. Some of these plugs are associated with seismic activities of magnitude ≤4 at their contacts. Based on this analysis, other circular/semi-circular gravity highs of NW India can be qualitatively attributed to similar subsurface volcanic plugs.     

Geoecological Characteristics of Lake Seliger

Data of hydrological and hydrochemical observations conducted in August 2000 at Lake Seliger and its major tributaries are presented. The analyzed characteristics included: O₂, H₂S, CH₄, microelements; mineral and organic compounds of P and N, ionic composition components (HCO₃ ^–, Cl^–, Na⁺, K⁺, dry residue, pH; color index, electrical conductivity. Bottom sediment samples were analyzed for microelement concentrations, CH₄, oil hydrocarbons. The influence of the basin on the ecological state of the lake was assessed, and tendencies in the evolution of its ecosystem are analyzed. It is shown that the ecological conditions of the lake has not changed significantly since 1960–1991, however, nutrient concentrations in the lake water was found to increase.     

Behavior of Strontium,Fluorine, and Boron in the Kuban and Don Mouth Areas

The distributions of concentrations of dissolved Sr, Ca, F, and B in the Kuban and Don mouth areas are studied. It is found that the behavior of F and B is conservative, whereas that of Sr and Ca is slightly nonconservative and is associated with the spatial heterogeneity of the structure of the zone where the river and sea waters are mixing (this heteromogeneity can arise because of dissimilar transformation of continental river runoff in different areas of the near-mouth coastal waters). It is shown that the parameters of linear relationships between the concentrations of Sr and Ca and the chlorides content of water differ in accordance with the seasonal variations in the chemical composition of the river and the Sea of Azov waters; for F and B, such regularity is not found.