Climate change and multi-dimensional sustainable urbanization

Global large-scale urbanization and climate change have become indisputable scientific facts yet are unresolved issues, and are a common concern for mankind. The relationship between these two topics is unclear and it is not known how to deal appropriately at the scientific level with climate change in the process of urbanization. Further exploration of the science, management and practice, are needed to achieve global and regional sustainadevelopment. This paper first considers the basic facts concerning mass urbanization and climate change and summarizes the interactions and possible mechanisms of urbanization and climate change. Urbanization leads to the heat island effect, an uneven distribution of precipitation and extreme weather, together with a local-regional-global multi-scale superposition effect, which aggravates the consequences of global climate change. The impact of climate change on urbanization is mainly manifested in aspects such as changes of energy consumption, mortality, and the spread of infectious diseases, sea level rise, extreme weather damage to infrastructure, and water shortages. This paper also briefly reviews relevant international research programs and action coalitions and puts forward an analysis framework multi-dimensional sustainable urbanization which can adapt to and mitigate climate change, from the perspective of the four key dimensions—population, land use, economy, and society. It is imperative that we strengthen the interdisciplinary activities involving the natural and social sciences, take urbanization and other human activities into consideration of the land-atmosphere system, and explore the human-land-atmosphere coupling process. The adaptation and mitigation from the perspective of human activities, as represented by urbanization, might be the most critical and realistic way to deal with climate change.     

A New Look at the Bistatic-to-Monostatic Conversion for Tandem SAR Image Formation

The bistatic synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data, which are converted into equivalent monostatic data by proper preprocessing, can be processed by standard monostatic focusing algorithms. The dip moveout (DMO) approach, which is derived from seismic data processing, converts the bistatic data into equivalent monostatic data by a short time-domain Rocca's smile operator. A 2-D exact point-target (PT) reference spectrum is derived in this letter for tandem bistatic configuration. The geometry-based bistatic formulation is shown to be actually equivalent to Rocca's smile operator, although they are derived from the pure SAR and geophysics points of view, respectively. Moreover, the new PT spectrum can be extended to deal with azimuth-invariant bistatic SAR data. Interpretations on the equivalent monostatic range wavenumber are presented in this letter, which help understand the conversion from the radar signal processing viewpoint.      

阿尔金东段现代变形特征的SAR监测

合成孔径雷达差分干涉测量技术(D-InSAR)可监测地球表面的微量形变,包括地震、火山活动、冰川漂移、地面沉降、活动断裂及山体滑坡等引起的地表位移,是近年来发展起来并得到日益重视的新方法,与其他监测方法(如GPS监测等)相比,用D-InSAR进行地面微位移监测具有全天时、全天候、精度高、覆盖范围大且空间连续的巨大优势。采用D-InSAR技术对阿尔金东段构造变形特征进行了研究,结果表明,阿尔金断裂带是青藏高原东北缘地壳变形的重要分界线。界线以北地区变形均匀,而且变形量较小;以南地区变形强烈且不均匀,变形强度的总体趋势为西高东低,中间受北祁连断裂带西段的影响,在断裂带中出现约为1.0cm的变形低值。另外,南区存在N65°W和近NW两个方向的线性强变形带,前者与阿尔金走滑断裂带次一级的压扭面方向一致,后者与北祁连断裂带西段的展布方向一致。     

AMDAR资料在机场天气预报中的应用

介绍了我国航空器空中报告（AMDAR）的下传及应用情况，包括AMDAR的数据特点、资料的实时分析及应用。重点介绍了AMDAR资料在机场临近预报中的应用，包括在风场分析、颠簸的诊断及警报以及在天气分析中的应用。     

基于T213产品与水汽收支的强降水面雨量预报方法及其误差分析

基于T213数值预报产品,以水汽收支平衡方程为基础,研制预报强降水的落区及强度的预报方法,并利用此方法制作6h面雨量的预报。该方法在2003年汛期淮河流域洪涝期间进行了应用,利用所得面雨量结果与实况降水进行各种误差分析。结果表明,预报正确率较高,该方法较为可靠,有一定的预报价值。     

西北太平洋夏季风的气候学研究

西北太平洋季风区(5°~25°N,120°~160°E)是亚洲-太平洋季风区与亚洲-澳大利亚季风区的一个重要部分,也是一个独立的季风区。文中对西北太平洋夏季风进行了气候学研究,发现西北太平洋夏季风的爆发发生在31候(6月上旬)前后。爆发后,夏季风经历了3次活跃-中断循环,每个循环都相应于独立的干期和湿期。第1个循环是从6月初到7月中旬,降水与低层西风的中心主要位于5°~10°N。第2个循环是7月下旬至9月下旬,降水与低层西风明显向东北方向移动,位于10°~20°N。这个循环是西北太平洋夏季风最强盛的时期。第3个循环是从9月末到10月末,降水与低层西风又向南退回到5°~10°N,达到了西北太平洋夏季风最弱的阶段。这个循环的结束也就预示着西北太平洋夏季风的结束。西北太平洋季风区有明显的季节内振荡(ISO),这种气候的季节内振荡(CISO)主要由30~60 d与10~20 d两种周期组成,但是主要以30~60 d的低频振荡为主。根据西北太平洋的对流和低层西风在不同位相分布的分析,可以看出西北太平洋的低频对流和西风是向西向北传播的。西北太平洋的季风降水、对流与西风的活跃-中断循环在很大程度上受30~60和10~20 d低频振荡的调制。     

基于鲸鱼优化算法的长短期记忆模型水库洪水预报

洪涝灾害是世界主要自然灾害之一,优化洪水预报方案对防洪决策至关重要,然而传统水文模型存在参数多、调参受人为因素影响,泛化能力弱等问题。针对上述问题,本文提出基于改进的鲸鱼优化算法和长短期记忆网络构建自动优化参数的WOA-LSTM模型,通过优化神经网络结构进一步增强该模型的稳定性和精确度,并且建立不同预见期下的洪水预报模型来分析讨论神经网络结构与预报期之间的关系。以横锦水库流域1986—1997年洪水资料为例,其中以流域7个雨量站点的降雨以及横锦站水文资料为输入,不同预见期下洪水过程作为输出,以1986—1993年作为模型的率定期,1994—1997年作为模型的检验期,研究结果表明:(1)以峰现时差、确定性系数、径流深误差和洪峰流量误差作为评价指标,相比较于LSTM模型和新安江模型对检验期的模拟结果表明WOA-LSTM模型拥有更高的精度、预报结果更稳定;(2)结合置换特征值和SHAP法分析模型特征值重要性,增强了神经网络模型的可解释性;(3)通过改变神经网络结构在一定程度避免由于预见期增加和数据关联性下降而导致的模型预报精度下降的问题,最终实验表明该模型在预见期1~6 h下都可以满足横锦水库的洪水预报要求,可以为当地的防洪决策提供依据。     

Small-Scale Brightenings in the UV Continuum of an M9.1 Solar Flare

We analyze an M9.1 two-ribbon solar flare which occurred on 2004 July 22 us- ing the TRACE white-light and 1700A~。images,the RHESSI,and the SOHO/MDI data.We find many small-scale fast-varying brightenings that appeared in the white-light and 1700A~。images along the flare ribbons.Some of them underwent rapid motions in weak magnetic field regions.We identify these short-lived brightenings as UV continuum enhancement.Our preliminary result shows that the brightenings are closely related to the HXR emission.They have a lifetime of 30-60 s and a typical size of about 1″-2″.The intensity enhancement is about 150-200 times the mean value of the quiet-Sun.According to previous works,we infer that the 1700A~。enhancement may be dominated by the increased emission of 1680 A con- tinuum coming from the temperature minimum region.The impulsive feature in the 1700 A~。light curves of the small-scale brightenings may be due to the irradiation of the impulsive CIV line intensity caused by the bombardment of non-thermal electron beams.     

1960-2010年中国西南地区0 ℃层高度变化特征

使用西南地区1960-2010 年14 探空站高空气象资料和对应的14 个地面观测站的5 个气温要素和2 个降水要素资料,通过Mann-Kendall 检验,线性趋势法、相关分析法及R/S 分析方法,分析了西南地区0 ℃层高度的时间变化特征和空间分布情况以及0 ℃层高度与气温、降水、海拔的相关性分析,并预测了0 ℃层高度未来变化趋势及持续性强度。结果表明:(1) 西南地区0 ℃层高度年代际变化表现为自20 世纪70 年代后突然降低之后逐渐升高的趋势,各季节年代际变化也不尽相同;(2) 西南地区0 ℃层高度在年际变化方面,在全年、秋季和冬季处于上升趋势,以冬季变化趋势最为明显且通过了显著性检验,春季和夏季处于不明显的下降趋势;(3) 西南地区0 ℃层高度的空间分布表现为由南向北逐渐降低的趋势,夏季较为均匀,从年际变化空间分布来看,年、季节变化空间差异也比较明显;(4) 西南地区各气温和降水要素表现出非常明显的空间差异,与降水各要素相比较,气温各要素与0 ℃层高度相关性更显著;从0 ℃层高度与海拔高度相关性来看,夏季0 ℃层高度与海拔高度相关性最好,而与其他季节及年的相关性不明显。(5) 未来趋势预测表明,西南地区年、季节0 ℃层高度变化趋势与过去一致,并且大部分站点保持较强的持续性。     

关于海洋行政处罚中立案程序的探讨

立案是行政法学理论中关于处罚程序的必须步骤,目前在执法实践中围绕这方面的应用探讨很少。文章从目前立案在海洋行政执法程序方面的规定,结合自身的海洋行政执法实践,从立案的程序、文书的制作方法、制作要求和复杂情况下的立案处理方法,进行了有一定深度的实际探讨,并提出自己的观点。