Water Table Uncertainties due to Uncertainties in Structure and Properties of an Unconfined Aquifer

We consider two sources of geology‐related uncertainty in making predictions of the steady‐state water table elevation for an unconfined aquifer. That is the uncertainty in the depth to base of the aquifer and in the hydraulic conductivity distribution within the aquifer. Stochastic approaches to hydrological modeling commonly use geostatistical techniques to account for hydraulic conductivity uncertainty within the aquifer. In the absence of well data allowing derivation of a relationship between geophysical and hydrological parameters, the use of geophysical data is often limited to constraining the structural boundaries. If we recover the base of an unconfined aquifer from an analysis of geophysical data, then the associated uncertainties are a consequence of the geophysical inversion process. In this study, we illustrate this by quantifying water table uncertainties for the unconfined aquifer formed by the paleochannel network around the Kintyre Uranium deposit in Western Australia. The focus of the Bayesian parametric bootstrap approach employed for the inversion of the available airborne electromagnetic data is the recovery of the base of the paleochannel network and the associated uncertainties. This allows us to then quantify the associated influences on the water table in a conceptualized groundwater usage scenario and compare the resulting uncertainties with uncertainties due to an uncertain hydraulic conductivity distribution within the aquifer. Our modeling shows that neither uncertainties in the depth to the base of the aquifer nor hydraulic conductivity uncertainties alone can capture the patterns of uncertainty in the water table that emerge when the two are combined.     

Sediment resuspension events induced by the wake wash of deep-draft vessels

Hydrodynamics and sediment resuspension events, induced at the shoreline by a deep-draft vessel passing nearby, are described. Measurements (pressure, currents and turbidity) were obtained at 4 Hz, on a lower beach ~50 m from a channel where large car ferries operate in Wootton Creek, Isle of Wight. The study focuses on a representative 8-min 32-s-long record, during which two large vessels passed the channel section. At the shore, the passage of each vessel induced a long-period water-level drawdown, followed by a water-level oscillation (seiche) of similar period, and the short-period waves of the wake. Both drawdowns were the main constituents of the prevailing wave pattern. The second drawdown was the largest in amplitude, in response to a higher speed of the ferry, and the influence of the seiche which had been activated during the preceding event. Two successive peaks of turbidity were observed shortly after this drawdown. Analyses of current velocity and direction indicate that the sediments resuspended originated from the shallower upper beach. Anthropogenically induced erosion of the foreshore is predicted at Wootton Creek.     

Natural aggregates in the performance and durability of concrete: chemical characteristics

This article continues from the earlier feature in Geology Today (2011, v.27, n.4) and looks at the influence of chemical reactivity within concrete due to the presence of unsound aggregates or deleterious material incorporated in the aggregate used in the concrete mix. Some of the more disruptive problems from chemical unsoundness come from the presence of chlorides, which cause rusting in reinforced concrete or, sulphate attack from ground waters. Both of these reactions are relatively common in Britain. Alkali–silica reactions with aggregates and cement is not too prevalent in Britain but can be very prevalent and disruptive elsewhere in the world.     

A three-tiered approach to participatory vulnerability assessment in the Solomon Islands

Greater recognition of the seriousness of global environmental change has led to an increase in research that assesses the vulnerability of households, communities and regions to changing environmental or economic conditions. So far, however, there has been relatively little attention given to how assessments can be conducted in ways that help build capacity for local communities to understand and find their own solutions to their problems. This paper reports on an approach that was designed and used to work with a local grass roots organization in the Solomon Islands to promote inclusivity and participation in decision-making and to build the capacity of the organization to reduce the vulnerability of communities to drivers of change. The process involved working collaboratively with the organization and training its members to conduct vulnerability assessments with communities using participatory and deliberative methods. To make best use of the learning opportunities provided by the research process, specific periods for formal reflection were incorporated for the three key stakeholders involved: the primary researchers; research assistants; and community members. Overall, the approach: (1) promoted learning about the current situation in Kahua and encouraged deeper analysis of problems; (2) built capacity for communities to manage the challenges they were facing; and (3) fostered local ownership and responsibility for problems and set precedents for future participation in decision-making. While the local organization and the communities it serves still face significant challenges, the research approach set the scene for greater local participation and effort to maintain and enhance livelihoods and wellbeing. The outcomes highlight the need for greater emphasis on embedding participatory approaches in vulnerability assessments for communities to benefit fully from the process.     

River stabilisation due to changing climate and vegetation during the late Quaternary in western Tasmania, Australia

The Stanley River in western Tasmania, Australia, contains sub-fossil rainforest logs within the channel and floodplain. Of the more than 85 radiocarbon dates obtained, all but 3 date from 17 ka to the present and permit an interpretation of fluvial and related environmental changes over this period. Particular attention is focused on the interactive relationship between the river and its riparian rainforest. Following the Last Glacial Maximum, the Stanley River was a laterally active gravel-load system reworking most of its valley floor in the upstream reaches. With ameliorating conditions at the end of the Pleistocene, climate became less seasonal and flow regimes less energetic. Huon pines already present in the catchment, re-asserted themselves in the form of dense tree cover along the river banks and floodplains with basal floodplain deposition shifting from gravels to coarse sands and granules. By about 3.5 ka, a further change in climate reduced stream discharges substantially. As a result the channel reduced in size, transported finer sediment, became laterally stable, and the floodplain accreted with overbank deposits of sand and silt. Huon pines falling into the channel formed obstructions of woody debris, some surviving for 2 ka. These have reduced stream power and boundary shear stress, further contributing to channel stability. Generational sequences of Huon pines on the river banks, some extending back 1–2 ka, are additional evidence of this stability. Since the Pleistocene, changing climate and the re-establishment of dense riparian rainforest appear to have stabilised the river channels and floodplains of western Tasmania.     

Holocene sedimentation of a wave-dominated barrierisland shoreline: Cape Lookout, North Carolina

The sedimentary record of 130 km of microtidal (0.9 m tidal range) high wave energy (1.5 m average wave height) barrier island shoreline of the Cape Lookout cuspate foreland has been evaluated through examination of 3136 m of subsurface samples from closely spaced drill holes. Holocene sedimentation and coastal evolution has been a function of five major depositional processes: (1) eustatic sea-level rise and barrier-shoreline transgression; (2) lateral tidal inlet migration and reworking of barrier island deposits; (3) shoreface sedimentation and local barrier progradation; (4) storm washover deposition with infilling of shallow lagoons; and (5) flood-tidal delta sedimentation in back-barrier environments.

Twenty-five radiocarbon dates of subsurface peat and shell material from the Cape Lookout area are the basis for a late Holocene sea-level curve. From 9000 to 4000 B.P. eustatic sea level rose rapidly, resulting in landward migration of both barrier limbs of the cuspate foreland. A decline in the rate of sea-level rise since 4000 B.P. resulted in relative shoreline stabilization and deposition of contrasting coastal sedimentary sequences. The higher energy, storm-dominated northeast barrier limb (Core and Portsmouth Banks) has migrated landward producing a transgressive sequence of coarse-grained, horizontally bedded washover sands overlying burrowed to laminated back-barrier and lagoonal silty sands. Locally, ephemeral tidal inlets have reworked the transgressive barrier sequence depositing fining-upward spit platform and channel-fill sequences of cross-bedded, pebble gravel to fine sand and shell. Shoreface sedimentation along a portion of the lower energy, northwest barrier limb (Bogue Banks) has resulted in shoreline progradation and deposition of a coarsening-up sequence of burrowed to cross-bedded and laminated, fine-grained shoreface and foreshore sands. In contrast, the adjacent barrier island (Shackleford Banks) consists almost totally of inlet-fill sediments deposited by lateral tidal inlet migration. Holocene sediments in the shallow lagoons behind the barriers are 5–8 m thick fining-up sequences of interbedded burrowed, rooted and laminated flood-tidal delta, salt marsh, and washover sands, silts and clays.

While barrier island sequences are generally 10 m in thickness, inlet-fill sequences may be as much as 25 m thick and comprise an average of 35% of the Holocene sedimentary deposits. Tidal inlet-fill, back-barrier (including flood-tidal delta) and shoreface deposits are the most highly preservable facies in the wave-dominated barrier-shoreline setting. In the Cape Lookout cuspate foreland, these three facies account for over 80% of the sedimentary deposits preserved beneath the barriers. Foreshore, spit platform and overwash facies account for the remaining 20%.     

Representation of Uncertainty and Integration of PGIS-based Grazing Intensity Maps Using Evidential Belief Functions

In a project to classify livestock grazing intensity using participatory geographic information systems (PGIS), we encountered the problem of how to synthesize PGIS-based maps of livestock grazing intensity that were prepared separately by local experts. We investigated the utility of evidential belief functions (EBFs) and Dempster's rule of combination to represent classification uncertainty and integrate the PGIS-based grazing intensity maps. These maps were used as individual sets of evidence in the application of EBFs to evaluate the proposition that " This area or pixel belongs to the high, medium, or low grazing intensity class because the local expert(s) says (say) so ". The class-area-weighted averages of EBFs based on each of the PGIS-based maps show that the lowest degree of classification uncertainty is associated with maps in which "vegetation species" was used as the mapping criterion. This criterion, together with local landscape attributes of livestock use may be considered as an appropriate standard measure for grazing intensity. The maps of integrated EBFs of grazing intensity show that classification uncertainty is high when the local experts apply at least two mapping criteria together. This study demonstrates the usefulness of EBFs to represent classification uncertainty and the possibility to use the EBF values in identifying and using criteria for PGIS-based mapping of livestock grazing intensity.     

Creating a Population of 12‐Digit Headwater Basins within the Albemarle‐Pamlico Estuary System

Ecological research within the US Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Research and Development has recently changed its focus to quantifying and mapping ecosystem services provided to humans. Our local research group has been charged to develop a regional assessment of several ecosystem services in the Albemarle‐Pamlico Estuary System (APES). Time, data, and funding constraints precluded explicit modeling of the entire APES, so in Phase 1 of our research plan we chose to model ecosystem services in a random sample of headwater catchments. After observing numerous inconsistencies between the National Hydrography Dataset‐Plus (NHDPlus) stream network and the Virginia/North Carolina Watershed Boundary Dataset 12‐digit HUC coverage, we began by creating modified 12‐digit hydrologic units (HUCs) by aggregating smaller catchments delineated within the NHDPlus. In defining our population of interest (headwater 12‐digit HUCs with perennial, natural, wadeable pour points), we generally excluded HUCs that had multiple pour points, no pour points, or whose pour points were intermittent streams, artificial segments, ditches/canals, or lentic systems (lakes and reservoirs). After taking these actions, 318 HUCs remained and a stratified random sample (Omnerik ecoregions as strata) of 50 HUCs was chosen from this population.     

Weather as a Chronic Hazard for Road Transportation in Canadian Cities

Inclement weather creates a chronic hazard for Canadian travellers. Past studies indicate that road collision rates increase during precipitation, although the magnitude of theincrease varies from study to study, partly as a result of variations in weather and driving conditions,but also because of differences in methods. The goal of the current study is to improve ourunderstanding of the links between weather and travel risk in mid-sized Canadian cities by using astandardized method for analyzing data from six cities with different climates: Halifax-Dartmouth,Ottawa, Québec, Hamilton, Waterloo Region, and Regina. The study has four interrelated objectives: (1) Toconduct a sensitivity analysis to determine the extent to which risk estimates vary depending onthe criteria used to define precipitation events and `normal' conditions; (2) To compare therelative risk of collision and injury during precipitation relative to `normal' conditions; (3) Todetermine the extent to which weather-related risks vary fordifferent Canadian cities; and (4) To explore any differences in collision characteristics between events and controls, especially as theyvary from city to city. Results are based on a matched-pair analysis, using six-hour time blocks over afour-year period, 1995 to 1998. Results indicate only modest sensitivity to the criteria used to define precipitation events and `normal' conditions. On average, precipitation is associated with a 75 percentincrease in traffic collisions and a 45 percent increase in related injuries, as compared to `normal'seasonal conditions, but risk levels vary depending on the characteristics of the weather event.Both sensitivity to specific weather conditions and weather-related accident profiles vary from city tocity in ways that are not easily explained.