Crust‐scale 3D model of the Western Bredasdorp Basin (Southern South Africa): data‐based insights from combined isostatic and 3D gravity modelling

The southern South African continental margin documents a complex margin system that has undergone both continental rifting and transform processes in a manner that its present‐day architecture and geodynamic evolution can only be better understood through the application of a multidisciplinary and multi‐scale geo‐modelling procedure. In this study, we focus on the proximal section of the larger Bredasdorp sub‐basin (the westernmost of the five southern South African offshore Mesozoic sub‐basins), which is hereto referred as the Western Bredasdorp Basin. Integration of 1200 km of 2D seismic‐reflection profiles, well‐logs and cores yields a consistent 3D structural model of the Upper Jurassic‐Cenozoic sedimentary megasequence comprising six stratigraphic layers that represent the syn‐rift to post‐rift successions with geometric information and lithology‐depth‐dependent properties (porosities and densities). We subsequently applied a combined approach based on Airy's isostatic concept and 3D gravity modelling to predict the depth to the crust‐mantle boundary (Moho) as well as the density structure of the deep crust. The best‐fit 3D model with the measured gravity field is only achievable by considering a heterogeneous deep crustal domain, consisting of an uppermost less dense prerift meta‐sedimentary layer [ρ = 2600 kg m^?3] with a series of structural domains. To reproduce the observed density variations for the Upper Cenomanian–Cenozoic sequence, our model predicts a cumulative eroded thickness of ca. 800–1200 m of Tertiary sediments, which may be related to the Late Miocene margin uplift. Analyses of the key features of the first crust‐scale 3D model of the basin, ranging from thickness distribution pattern, Moho shallowing trend, sub‐crustal thinning to shallow and deep crustal extensional regimes, suggest that basin initiation is typical of a mantle involvement deep‐seated pull‐apart setting that is associated with the development of the Agulhas‐Falkland dextral shear zone, and that the system is not in isostatic equilibrium at present day due to a mass excess in the eastern domain of the basin that may be linked to a compensating rise of the asthenospheric mantle during crustal extension. Further corroborating the strike‐slip setting is the variations of sedimentation rates through time. The estimated syn‐rift sedimentation rates are three to four times higher than the post‐rift sedimentation, thereby indicating that a rather fast and short‐lived subsidence during the syn‐rift phase is succeeded by a significantly poor passive margin development in the post‐rift phase. Moreover, the derived lithospheric stretching factors [β = 1.5–1.75] for the main basin axis do not conform to the weak post‐rift subsidence. This therefore suggests that a differential thinning of the crust and the mantle‐lithosphere typical for strike‐slip basins, rather than the classical uniform stretching model, may be applicable to the Western Bredasdorp Basin.     

A Spherical Lens For The Ska

Spherical refracting lenses based upon the Luneburg lens offer unique capabilities for radioastronomy, but the large diameter of lens required for the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) means that traditional lens materials are either too dense or too lossy. We are investigating a composite dielectric that theoretically offers extremely low loss and low density, and is suitable for low-cost mass production. We describe our progress towards realising this material and demonstrating the manufacturing concept, via the manufacture and testing of a small (0.9 m) spherical lens.     

Scientists' warning on extreme wildfire risks to water supply

2020 is the year of wildfire records. California experienced its three largest fires early in its fire season. The Pantanal, the largest wetland on the planet, burned over 20% of its surface. More than 18 million hectares of forest and bushland burned during the 2019–2020 fire season in Australia, killing 33 people, destroying nearly 2500 homes, and endangering many endemic species. The direct cost of damages is being counted in dozens of billion dollars, but the indirect costs on water-related ecosystem services and benefits could be equally expensive, with impacts lasting for decades. In Australia, the extreme precipitation (“200 mm day −1 in several location”) that interrupted the catastrophic wildfire season triggered a series of watershed effects from headwaters to areas downstream. The increased runoff and erosion from burned areas disrupted water supplies in several locations. These post-fire watershed hazards via source water contamination, flash floods, and mudslides can represent substantial, systemic long-term risks to drinking water production, aquatic life, and socio-economic activity. Scenarios similar to the recent event in Australia are now predicted to unfold in the Western USA. This is a new reality that societies will have to live with as uncharted fire activity, water crises, and widespread human footprint collide all-around of the world. Therefore, we advocate for a more proactive approach to wildfire-watershed risk governance in an effort to advance and protect water security. We also argue that there is no easy solution to reducing this risk and that investments in both green (i.e., natural) and grey (i.e., built) infrastructure will be necessary. Further, we propose strategies to combine modern data analytics with existing tools for use by water and land managers worldwide to leverage several decades worth of data and knowledge on post-fire hydrology.     

Assessing risk to groundwater quality using an integrated risk framework

Source-water protection strategies are ideally focused where the greatest amount of harm reduction can occur. This process of risk management requires an assessment of the spatial variability of risk to water. The assessment methodology presented herein combines aquifer susceptibility with a hazard threat inventory and an analysis of the consequence of contamination to assess the risk to water quality. Aquifer susceptibility combines the intrinsic susceptibility of the physical system with anthropogenic features that locally increase susceptibility. Hazard threats are assessed based on the properties of the chemicals (toxicity and environmental fate), the potential magnitude (extent and quantity of release) and the likelihood of release. The consequence is herein considered as the financial costs of the loss of the resource, including the replacement of a water source and the economic loss where water intensive businesses are lost. A second scenario is included that analyses health issues related to pathogen sources as well as the financial impact to the community where people fall ill and present a financial burden to the public health care system. The risk assessment methodology is applied to the Township of Langley, in southwestern British Columbia, Canada. The results outline the most vulnerable areas as those where susceptible aquifers coexist with potential chemical and biological threats. The risk is greatest where these vulnerable areas coincide with those with the greatest potential for financial loss: within the capture zones of major municipal production wells and where private wells serve agricultural operations with high annual farm sales.     

Replacing carbon lost from forests: an assessment of insurance,reserves, and expiring credits

Abstract

Concern over the “non-permanence” or reversibility of carbon sequestration projects has been prominent in discussions over how to develop guidelines for forest project investments under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol. Accordingly, a number of approaches have been proposed that aim to help ensure that parties do not receive credit for carbon that is lost before project obligations are fulfilled. These approaches include forest carbon insurance, land reserves, and issuance of expiring credits. The potential costs of each of these different approaches are evaluated using a range of assumptions about project length, risk and discount rate, and a comparison of costs is ventured based on the estimated reduction in value of these credits compared with uninsured, and permanent credits. Obstacles to participation in the different approaches are discussed related to problems of long-term commitments, project scale, rising replacement costs, and low credit value. It is concluded that a system of expiring credits, which could be coupled with insurance or reserves, could guarantee obligations that span time-scales longer than that of conventional insurance policies while maintaining incentives for long-term sequestration.     

The origin of crystalline residues in Stardust Al foils: Surviving cometary dust or crystallized impact melts?

Abstract– Samples returned by the Stardust mission from comet 81P/Wild 2 provide an unequaled opportunity to investigate cometary formation and evolution. Crystalline silicates have been identified in impact craters in Stardust Al foil, yet their origin is ambiguous. They may be original cometary components, or they may have grown from melt generated by impact. We have now studied experimental impacts of the calcium silicate mineral wollastonite, using scanning and transmission electron microscopy to document the relationship between impact feature shape and crystal lattice orientation in impact residue. Wollastonite can have a characteristic acicular habit, forming crater shapes that indicate crystal orientation upon impact. From extracted impact residue, we determined the lattice orientation of crystalline material for comparison with the whole particle orientation. We assume that crystallization from melt, without surviving seed nuclei, should result in randomly oriented crystallite growth, with no preferred direction for individual crystals. However, we find that the majority of crystalline material in the residue retains b‐axis orientation parallel to the long axis of the crater form. This, together with impact parameter calculations and lack of Al incorporation by the residue (suggesting melting did not occur), indicates that these crystals and, by analogy, the majority of Al‐free crystalline silicates in Stardust foil, are surviving remnants of the impactor. Furthermore, amorphous wollastonite residue probably did not form via melting and subsequent quenching, but instead by high‐pressure amorphization or degradation of unquenchable phases. Finally, one crystal studied appears to be a new high‐pressure/temperature polymorph of CaSiO₃, indicating that such polymorphs may be observed in Stardust residues in craters.     

GRAVITAS: general relativistic astrophysics via timing and spectroscopy

GRAVITAS is an X-ray observatory, designed and optimised to address the ESA Cosmic Vision theme of ??Matter under extreme conditions??. It was submitted as a response to the call for M3 mission proposals. The concept centres around an X-ray telescope of unprecedented effective area, which will focus radiation emitted from close to the event horizon of black holes or the surface of neutron stars. To reveal the nature and behaviour of matter in the most extreme astrophysical environments, GRAVITAS targets a key feature in the X-ray spectra of compact objects: the iron K?? line at ~6.5?keV. The energy, profile, and variability of this emission line, and the properties of the surrounding continuum emission, shaped by General Relativity (GR) effects, provide a unique probe of gravity in its strong field limit. Among its prime targets are hundreds of supermassive black holes in bright Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN), which form the perfect laboratory to help understand the physical processes behind black hole growth. Accretion plays a fundamental role in the shaping of galaxies throughout cosmic time, via the process of feedback. Modest (~sub-arcmin) spatial resolution would deliver the necessary sensitivity to extend high quality X-ray spectroscopy of AGN to cosmologically-relevant distances. Closer to home, ultra-high count rate capabilities and sub-millisecond time resolution enable the study of GR effects and the equation of state of dense matter in the brightest X-ray binaries in our own Galaxy, using multiple probes, such as the broad iron line, the shape of the disk continuum emission, quasi-periodic oscillations, reverberation mapping, and X-ray burst oscillations. The enormous advance in spectral and timing capability compared to current or planned X-ray observatories would enable a vast array of additional scientific investigations, spanning the entire range of contemporary astrophysics from stars to distant galaxy clusters. Despite its breakthrough capabilities, all enabling technologies for GRAVITAS are already in a high state of readiness. It is based on ultra light-weight X-ray optics and a focal plane detector using silicon technology. The baseline launcher would be a Soyuz?CFregat to place GRAVITAS into a zero inclination, low-earth orbit, providing low and relatively stable background.     

A growth agenda without growth: English spatial policy,sustainable communities,and the death of the neo-liberal project?

The rapid onset of the recession in the UK in 2009 is likely to have profound implications for English spatial policy. The neo-liberal emphasis on supporting, and catering for, the expansion of the globally competitive London and the South East region is coming under strain as growth falters. The future of spatial policy seems uncertain as does the emphasis on what has been termed sustainable community-building. This paper explores and assesses the politics of assumption-building that have underpinned spatial policy practices and thinking in England under the Labour government. It examines and highlights some of the key challenges and difficulties that now face policy-makers and explores the possibility that we are witnessing the emergence of new forms of neo-Keynesianism. It shows that as the core assumptions of the 1990s and 2000s break down, so new opportunities are opened up for alternative, less growth-oriented agendas. The paper concludes by highlighting areas for further research and sketching out possible futures for the sustainable communities agenda.