Calibration of regional pollen data to construct maps of former forest types in southern Sweden

A method was developed to construct maps of former forest types based on regional pollen data in southern Sweden. The considered species were Alnus, Betula, Carpinus, Corylus, Fagus, Fraxinus, Juniperus, Picea, Pinus, Populus, Quercus, Salix, Tilia and Ulmus. A network of 37 regional pollen sites with high data quality from lakes and peat deposits were selected from Sweden south of 60 ° N. Pollen percentage values were calculated and converted into estimates of tree composition. For controlling the reliability of the reconstruction, the estimates from the core-tops were compared with present day forest inventory data, and local pollen diagrams were compared with the regional pollen diagrams. An inverse distance weighted interpolation algorithm was used to generate maps for each tree species distribution at 2000 BP, 1500 BP, 1000 BP, 500 BP and 0 BP. A supervised classification routine was implemented to generate nine different forest types common to the five studied time intervals. The maps show that the amounts and patterns of distribution of the species and the forest types have varied in a significant but systematic manner through time. The changes are due to human activities, migrational patterns and changes in climate. These maps will be of value as a basis for future landscape planning, forestry and conservation of biodiversity.This is the 20th in a series of papers published in this special AMQUA issue. These papers were presented at the 1994 meeting of the American Quaternary Association held 19–22 June, 1994, at the University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA. Dr Linda C. K. Shane served as guest editor for these papers.     

A 1951–80 global land precipitation climatology for the evaluation of general circulation models

Previous evaluations of model precipitation fields have suffered from two weaknesses; they have used only mean observed climatologies which have prevented an explicit evaluation of interannual variability, and they have generally failed to quantify the significance of differences between model and observed fields. To rectify these weaknesses, a global precipitation climatology is required which is designed with model evaluation in mind. This paper describes such a climatology representative of the period 1951–80. The climatology is based on historical gauge-precipitation measurements from over 2500 land-based station time series representing over 28% of the Earth's surface. It is necessarily biased towards terrestrial areas. The climatology (CRU5180) is derived from month-by-month gridbox precipitation estimates at 5° resolution. Although other global precipitation climatologies exist, this is the first one to have used a consistent reference period for each station, and to include the details of interannual variability. Fields of mean seasonal and annual precipitation and mean temporal variability are presented, and the variability of global-mean precipitation over 1951–80 assessed. The resulting mean monthly global precipitation fields are compared briefly with two other observed climatologies used for model evaluation, those prepared by Jaeger and Legates and Willmott. The global and hemispheric means, mean seasonal cycles, and spatial patterns of the three cimatologies are compared. Although based on a smaller set of stations than Legates and Willmott, the CRU5180 precipitation estimates agree closely with their uncorrected climatology.     

Multiple exposures and dynamic vulnerability: Evidence from the grape industry in the Okanagan Valley, Canada

This paper assesses the vulnerability of grape growers and winery operators in the Okanagan Valley, British Columbia to climate variability and change, in the context of other sources of risk. Through interviews and focus groups, producers identified the climatic and non-climatic risks relevant to them and the strategies employed to manage these risks. The results show that the presence of multiple exposures affects the way in which producers are vulnerable to climate change. Producers are vulnerable to conditions that not only affect crop yield, but also affect their ability to compete in or sell to the market. Their sensitivity to these conditions is influenced in part by institutional factors such as trade liberalization and a “markup-free delivery” policy. Producers’ ability to adapt or cope with these risks varies depending on such factors as the availability of resources and technology, and access to government programmes. Producers will likely face challenges associated with the supply of water for irrigation due to a combination of climatic changes and changing demographics in the Okanagan Valley, which in turn affect their ability to adapt to climatic conditions. Finally, adaptations made by producers can change the nature of the operation and its vulnerability, demonstrating the dynamic nature of vulnerability.     

Automated classification of stellar spectra — II. Two-dimensional classification with neural networks and principal components analysis

We investigate the application of neural networks to the automation of MK spectral classification. The data set for this project consists of a set of over 5000 optical (3800–5200 Å) spectra obtained from objective prism plates from the Michigan Spectral Survey. These spectra, along with their two-dimensional MK classifications listed in the Michigan Henry Draper Catalogue, were used to develop supervised neural network classifiers. We show that neural networks can give accurate spectral type classifications (σ₆₈= 0.82 subtypes, σ_rms= 1.09 subtypes) across the full range of spectral types present in the data set (B2–M7). We show also that the networks yield correct luminosity classes for over 95 per cent of both dwarfs and giants with a high degree of confidence.   Stellar spectra generally contain a large amount of redundant information. We investigate the application of principal components analysis (PCA) to the optimal compression of spectra. We show that PCA can compress the spectra by a factor of over 30 while retaining essentially all of the useful information in the data set. Furthermore, it is shown that this compression optimally removes noise and can be used to identify unusual spectra.   This paper is a continuation of the work carried out by von Hippel et al. (Paper I).     

Sediment supply and climate change: implications for basin stratigraphy

The rate of sediment supply from erosional catchment to depositional basin depends primarily upon climate, relief, catchment slope and lithology. It varies in both time and space. Spatial changes in erosion rates due to variations in lithology are illustrated by contrasting rates of drainage divide migration away from faults of known ages. Time variations in relative sediment supply are extremely complex and vary widely according to the direction and magnitude of climate change. In many parts of the Great Basin and south-western USA, glacial maximum climates were characterized by higher effective moisture and the altitudinal downward spread of woods and forests. Sparse data from alluvial fans indicate reduced sediment supply, despite the increased runoff evident from higher lake levels. The situation in Mediterranean areas is less clear, with rival climatic scenarios for vegetation ecotypes predicting contrasting runoff. In order to test these latter we run Cumulative Seasonal Erosion Potential [CSEP] experiments for present-day and a variety of full-glacial Mediterranean candidate climates. The results indicate the likelihood of enhanced sediment supply and runoff compared to the present day during full-glacial times for a cool wet winter climate and a reduction in sediment supply and runoff for a full-glacial cool dry winter climate. We then explore the consequences of such phase differences in sediment supply, and sea and lake levels for the stratigraphy of sedimentary basins. Highstands and lowstands of sea or lake may be accompanied by greater or lesser sediment and water supply, as determined by the regional climate and the direction of climatic change. Thus marine lowstands are not necessarily periods of great transfer of coarse clastic sediments to shelves and deep water basinal environments. Unsteady sediment supply has greatest implications for alluvial systems, in particular the effect that changing relative supplies of water and sediment have upon river and fan channel incision.     

Resource-based development in the Russian Far East: Problems and prospects

The paper examines the prospects for resource-based development in the Russian Far East. It adopts a critical perspective on the potential for resource-based development by examining problems with Far East resource industries, specifically by looking at the experience of the other resource economies more generally. In particular, it highlights the new geo-economic context for resource development in the Far East of Russia as the world economy approaches the much touted, and now questioned, ‘Pacific Century’.     

Use of annular flumes to determine the influence of current velocity and bivalves on material flux at the sediment-water interface

A benthic annular flume for both laboratory and in situ deployment on intertidal mudflats is described. The flume provides a means of quantifying material flux (i.e., biodeposition of suspended particulates, sediment resuspension, nutrients, oxygen, and contaminants) across the sediment-water interface in relation to changes in current velocity and benthic community structure and/or population density of key macrofauna species. Flume experiments have investigated the impact of the infaunal bivalveMacoma balthica and the epifaunal bivalveMytilus edulis on seston and sediment flux at the sediment-water interface. The bioturbatorMacoma was found to increase the sediment resuspension and/or erodability by 4-fold, at densities similar to those recorded at the Skeffling mudflat (Humber estuary) (i.e., >1000 individuals m^?2). There was a significant correlation between sediment resuspension andMacoma density (r=0.99; p<0.001), which supported previous in situ field observations indicating bioturbation byMacoma enhanced sediment erodability. Biodeposition rates (g m^?2 h¹) ofMytilus edulis andCerastoderma edule were quantified and related to changes in population density in a mussel bed (Cleethorpes, Humber estuary). Biodeposition rates were up to 40-times the natural sedimentation rates. At the highest mussel bed densities (i.e., 50–100% cover or >1400 mussels m^?2) the physical presence of this epifaunal bivalve on the sediment surface reduced erosion by 10-fold. The shift from net biodeposition to net erosion occurred at current velocities of 20–25 cm s^?1. These results demonstrate that infaunal and epifaunal bivalves can have a significant impact on seston flux or sediment deposition and on sediment resuspension or erodability in estuaries where there are extensive mudflats.