Winter anomaly observations at the Panská Ves Observatory (Czechoslovakia), 1971–1973

Summary The results of the winter anomaly observations at the Panská Ves Observatory on 2775 kHz and 2614 kHz (A3 method, f_eq1 and 0.8 MHz) are studied for the winters of 1971/72 and 1972/73. Ionospheric responses to minor (1972) and major stratospheric warmings are found to be different and relatively small. A regular winter-anomaly background absorption increase with a maximum in January was observed during both winters studied. Magnetic storms are found to play an insignificant, if any, role in the winter-anomaly phenomenon. The relation between magnetic activity and ionospheric absorption seems to be better in non-anomalous periods.     

Documenting and detecting long-term precipitation trends: Where we are and what should be done

A brief review of problems and achievements in documenting precipitation changes during the period of instrumental measurements is presented. Concern is expressed that without appropriate studies in the coming period of a new generation of precipitation measurements, technological progress in instrumentation may adversely and inadvertently affect our capability for monitoring and detecting future changes in terrestrial precipitation. At the same time, only a new generation of instrumentation will be capable of resolving the problems of monitoring precipitation over oceans.Special attention is paid to validation of the increasing trend in terrestrial precipitation observed during the past hundred years at high latitudes of the northern hemisphere - a feature of global warming predicted by most climate models.     

On the problem of quasi-electrostatic whistler mode waves: A possible interpretation of discrete plasmaspheric emissions

Summary In a number of VLF experiments with low-orbiting Intercosmos satellites, high-intensity, discrete VLF emissions at frequencies above the local LHR were observed predominantly between L=2.3 and 4.0. The frequency of their intensity maximum varies continuously with geomagnetic latitude, and approximately parallels the value of a quarter of the equatorial electron gyrofrequency. An attempt is made to interprete these emissions in terms of quasi-electrostatic whistler-mode waves, generated in the near-equatorial region and propagating downward in the quasi-resonance mode. The generating mechanism is supposed to be the kinetic instability connected with the loss-cone and temperature anisotropy of the distribution function of energetic electrons. Some features of the discrete plasmaspheric emissions are discussed on the basis of theoretical considerations.

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Spatial distribution of phytoplankton in Spring 2004 along a transect in the eastern part of the North Sea

We report the results from a 250 km long transect, from the Danish coast to the North Sea at 55°30′ N, which was sampled every 32 km in order to study the composition and distribution of phytoplankton, and their dependence on the distance from the coast, depth and other environmental factors. Altogether 144 species of algae were identified by light, epifluorescence and electron microscopy. Some ecological preferences were found on the basis of measured environmental parameters and compared with the literature. Possible controlling mechanisms for the distribution patterns of the plankton algae were analyzed by multivariate statistics. Only distance from the coast was found to be a significant factor for algal distribution along the transect. Three main areas of the transect were found: the coastal, middle and oceanic areas. Diatoms, mainly the centric ones, were the most abundant group of algae. The other less abundant groups were Dinophyceae, Dictyochophyceae, Prasinophyceae and Chlorophyceae. The pattern of distribution of diatoms and dinophytes along the transect was more or less similar, with larger numbers of cells found close to both the eastern and western parts of the transect, although the species composition was different. Some species were found to prefer coastal waters, other species were characterized as oceanic, and several species were found at all stations. Porosira glacialis showed an atypical distribution along the transect, with highest abundances at both coastal and oceanic stations.     

Potential forest fire danger over Northern Eurasia: Changes during the 20th century

Significant climatic changes over Northern Eurasia during the 20th century have been reflected in numerous variables of economic, social, and ecological interest, including the natural frequency of forest fires. For the former USSR, we are now using the Global Daily Climatology Network and a new Global Synoptic Data Network archive, GSDN, created jointly by U.S. National Climatic Data Center and Russian Research Institute for Hydrometeorological Information. Data from these archives (approximately 1500 of them having sufficiently long meteorological time series suitable for participation in our analyses) are employed to estimate systematic changes in indices used in the United States and Russia to assess potential forest fire danger. We use four indices: (1) Keetch–Byram Drought Index, (KBDI; this index was developed and widely used in the United States); (2) Nesterov, (3) Modified Nesterov, and (4) Zhdanko Indices (these indices were developed and widely used in Russia). Analyses show that after calibration, time series of the days with increased potential forest fire danger constructed using each of these three indices (a) are well correlated and (b) deliver similar conclusions about systematic changes in the weather conditions conducive to forest fires. Specifically, over the Eastern half of Northern Eurasia (Siberia and the Russian Far East) statistically significant increases in indices that characterize the weather conditions conducive to forest fires were found. These areas coincide with the areas of most significant warming during the past several decades south of the Arctic Circle. West of the Ural Mountains, the same indices show a steady decrease in the frequency of “dry weather summer days” during the past 60 yr. This study is corroborated with available statistics of forest fires and with observed changes in drought statistics in agricultural regions of Northern Eurasia.     

Captured older stars as the reason for apparently prolonged star formation in young star clusters

The existence of older stars within a young star cluster can be interpreted to imply that star formation occurs on time-scales longer than a free-fall time of a pre-cluster cloud core. Here, the idea is explored that these older stars are not related to the star formation process forming the young star cluster but rather that the orbits of older field stars are focused by the collapsing pre-cluster cloud core. Two effects appear: the focusing of stellar orbits leads to an enhancement of the density of field stars in the vicinity of the centre of the young star cluster; and due to the time-dependent potential of the forming cluster some of these stars can get bound gravitationally to the cluster. These stars exhibit similar kinematical properties to the newly formed stars and cannot be distinguished from them on the basis of radial velocity or proper motion surveys. Such contaminations may lead to a wrong apparent star formation history of a young cluster. In the case of the ONC, the theoretical number of gravitationally bound older low-mass field stars agrees with the number of observed older low-mass stars.     

Quantitative biome reconstruction using modern and late Quaternary pollen data from the southern part of the Russian Far East

In this study we present a recent compilation of 286 modern surface pollen spectra from the southern part of the Russian Far East (42–54°N, 131–141°E) and use it to test the biome reconstruction method. Seventy terrestrial pollen taxa were assigned to plant functional types and then classified to eight regional biomes. When applied to 286 surface pollen spectra, the method assigns about 70% (201 sites) of the samples to the cool mixed forest biome, 17% – to the taiga, 2% – to the cool conifer forest, 3% – to the temperate deciduous forest, and 7% – to the steppe. The steppe reconstruction is characteristic of the pollen spectra from the agricultural areas around Lake Khanka. A visual comparison shows good agreement between pollen-derived biomes and actual vegetation distribution in the region. However, pollen and botanical data, compared with the potential vegetation distribution simulated from the modern climate dataset using the BIOME1 model, demonstrate that spatial distribution of cool mixed forest is underrepresented in the model simulation. The model sets the mean temperature of the coldest month of −15 °C as the factor limiting distribution of the temperate deciduous broadleaf taxa, while vegetation and pollen data from the region demonstrate that this limit should be lowered to −26 °C. Application of the method to the Gur 3–99 pollen record (50°00^′N, 137°03^′E) demonstrates that tundra vegetation predominated around the site prior to 14 ka BP (1 ka = 1000 cal. years). However, the local presence of boreal trees and mixed forest-tundra vegetation is suggested by relatively high taiga scores. Soon after 14 ka BP the scores of taiga become slightly higher than tundra scores. During 11.4–10.5 ka BP a cool conifer forest is reconstructed. Establishment of the full interglacial conditions is marked by the onset of cool mixed forest by 10.5 ka BP. Between 10.3 and 2.5 ka BP the scores of temperate deciduous forest are close to those of cool mixed forest and become distinctly lower during the late Holocene.     

Russian eruption warning systems for aviation

More than 65 potentially active volcanoes on the Kamchatka Peninsula and the Kurile Islands pose a substantial threat to aircraft on the Northern Pacific (NOPAC), Russian Trans-East (RTE), and Pacific Organized Track System (PACOTS) air routes. The Kamchatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT) monitors and reports on volcanic hazards to aviation for Kamchatka and the north Kuriles. KVERT scientists utilize real-time seismic data, daily satellite views of the region, real-time video, and pilot and field reports of activity to track and alert the aviation industry of hazardous activity. Most Kurile Island volcanoes are monitored by the Sakhalin Volcanic Eruption Response Team (SVERT) based in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk. SVERT uses daily moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite images to look for volcanic activity along this 1,250-km chain of islands. Neither operation is staffed 24 h per day. In addition, the vast majority of Russian volcanoes are not monitored seismically in real-time. Other challenges include multiple time-zones and language differences that hamper communication among volcanologists and meteorologists in the US, Japan, and Russia who share the responsibility to issue official warnings. Rapid, consistent verification of explosive eruptions and determination of cloud heights remain significant technical challenges. Despite these difficulties, in more than a decade of frequent eruptive activity in Kamchatka and the northern Kuriles, no damaging encounters with volcanic ash from Russian eruptions have been recorded.