Two modes of climatic control in the Holocene stalagmite record from the Japan Sea side of the Japanese islands

The Holocene stalagmite FG01 collected at the Fukugaguchi Cave in Itoigawa, central Japan provides a unique high‐resolution record of the East Asian winter monsoon. Because of the climate conditions on the Japan Sea side of the Japanese islands, the volume of precipitation during the winter is strongly reflected in the stalagmite δ¹⁸O signal. Examination of the carbon isotopes and the Mg/Ca ratio of FG01 provided additional information on the Holocene climate in Itoigawa, which is characterized by two different modes separated at 6.4 ka. Dripwater composition and the correlation between the δ¹³C and Mg/Ca data of FG01 indicate the importance of prior calcite precipitation (PCP), a process that selectively eliminated ¹²C and calcium ions from infiltrating water from CO₂ degassing and calcite precipitation. In an earlier period (10.0–6.4 ka), an increase in soil pCO₂ associated with warming and wetting climate trends was a critical factor that enhanced PCP, and resulted in an increasing trend in the Mg/Ca and δ¹³C data and a negative correlation between the δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O profiles. A distinct peak in the δ¹³C age profile at 6.8 ka could be a response to an increase of approximately 10% in C4 plants in the recharge area. At 6.4 ka, the climate mode changed to another, and correlation between δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C became positive. In addition, a millennial‐scale variation in δ¹⁸O and pulsed changes in δ¹³C and Mg/Ca became distinct. Assuming that δ¹⁸O and PCP were controlled by moisture in the later period, the volume of precipitation was high during 6.0–5.2, 4.4–4.0, and 3.0–2.0 ka. In contrast, the driest interval in Itoigawa was during 0.2–0.4 ka, and broadly corresponds to the Little Ice Age.     

Physical criterion to evaluate seismic activity associated with the seismic cycle of great interplate earthquakes

A new criterion is introduced to judge if the vicinity of the source region of a great interplate earthquake is in an active period. It is based on the stress change caused by the great earthquake. A region is regarded as being in an active period of seismicity if the occurrence rate of earthquakes on faults in the stress shadow of the great earthquake is significantly higher than in the early stage of the seismic cycle, and if the stressing rate of these faults is sufficiently low. This criterion was applied to the seismicity in the central part of southwest Japan before and after the 1944 Tonankai and 1946 Nankai earthquakes. The results show that before the 1944 Tonankai earthquake, the region was in an active period from at least 1927.The region was in a quiet period for almost50 years after the 1946 Nankai earthquake.Data after 1995 show that the region is once more in an active period of seismicity preceding the next great interplate earthquakes along the Nankai trough,although the total number of earthquakes has not yet significantly increased. Our results indicate that earthquake probability in the central part of southwest Japan will become high in the coming decades until the next great interplate earthquakes along the Nankai trough.