Postponing emission reductions from 2020 to 2030 increases climate risks and long-term costs

Substantially postponing the emission reductions, compared to the ranges indicated in IPCC’s recent assessment for 2020 as required for meeting the longterm 2°C target, increases the risk of exceeding this target. The costs of a delay strategy are lower in the short term, but leads to higher costs in the longer term. The analysis shows if the emission reductions are postponed to 2030 it is not likely that higher emissions from the earlier years can be fully compensated in future decades in a so-called ‘delayed action scenario’. A full compensation would require emission reduction rates in the coming decades that are much higher than those found in the scenario literature. Without compensation, the risk of exceeding the global temperature rise target of 2°C will increase. This confirms that it is not only the reduction commitments for 2050 that determine the risk of exceeding the 2°C target, but also the path between now and 2050. To meet this 2°C target, more ambitious 2020 reduction targets are needed for the developed and developing countries than those that have been pledged so far.     

Dynamics of Small Earth-Approachers on Low-Eccentricity Orbits and Implications for Their Origins

The population of Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) appears to be overabundant at sizes smaller than 50m, compared to a power-law extrapolation from kilometer-sized objects. Several of these small NEAs are also concentrated on low-eccentricity orbits, where a few larger Earth-crossers are observed, and are called Small Earth-Approachers (SEAs). Their source region as well as the dynamical mechanisms involved in their transport close to the Earth on low-eccentricity orbits have not yet been determined. In this paper, we present our numerical and statistical study of the production and dynamical evolution of these SEAs. We first show that three main sources of Earth-crossers which are, according to recent simulations, the 3/1 and ₆ resonances in the main belt, and the Mars-crosser population, are not able to produce as many bodies on SEAs-like orbits compared to other Earth-crossing orbits as has been inferred from observations. From these sources, SEAs-like orbits are reached through the interplay of two required mechanisms: secular resonances and planetary close approaches. However, the time spent on these orbits remains smaller than 1 Myr as confirmed by the study of the evolutions of 11 observed SEAs which also reveal the action of various mechanisms such as close approaches to planets and/or secular resonances. Therefore, our results present some mechanisms which can be responsible for their production but none that would preserve the lifetime of the SEAs sufficiently to enhance their abundance relative to other Earth-crossing orbits at the level observed. The overabundance of the SEA population, if real, remains a problem and could be related to the influence of collisional disruption and tidal splitting of Earth-crossers, as well as to observational biases that might account for a discrepancy between theory and observation.     

Shore litter along sandy beaches of the Gulf of Oman

Beach debris abundance and weight were estimated from surveys on 11 beaches of the Gulf of Oman along the Omani coast. Debris were collected on two occasions from 100 m transects, sorted and categorized by origin and type. Overall contaminations ranged from 0.43 to 6.01 items m(-1) of beach front on different beaches with a mean value of 1.79+/-1.04 gm(-1) (95% C.I). In terms of weight, contamination levels ranged from 7.8 to 75.44 gm(-1) of beach front with a mean contamination of 27.02+/-14.48 gm(-1) (95% C.I). In terms of numbers of items, plastic debris ranked first on all beaches followed by either wood items or other organic materials such as cigarette butts. Industrial debris remained few on all beaches (<10%). Most debris had a local origin and, in terms of numbers, were associated with beach recreational activities whereas fishing debris represented the largest proportion of the debris in terms of weight. There were notable differences between beaches in the relative abundance of recreation-related and fishing-related debris.     

Geochemical influences on H40/1 bacteriophage inactivation in glaciofluvial sands

Geochemical heterogeneities may cause spatial variations in virus inactivation rates resulting from interactions with minerals leading to differences in natural disinfection capacity within an aquifer. Column studies investigating the interaction of the bacteriophage H40/1 with natural sands sampled from the Kappelen test site (Kappelen), Bern, Switzerland indicated that inactivation rates are higher for adsorbed bacteriophages than for those suspended in groundwater. Moreover, breakthrough curves obtained from field-based tracer tests at Kappelen indicated that the adsorbed H40/1 is inactivated in-situ at comparable rates. Statistical analyses of mineralogical data failed to demonstrate significant spatial variations in aquifer composition either across the site or with depth. In contrast hydrochemical analyses of groundwater samples collected at Kappelen demonstrated that iron-reducing groundwater occurs below aerobic waters. Tracer breakthrough curves indicate that H40/1 survival is not affected by variable redox conditions. Investigation results suggest that spatial geochemical variability does not significantly affect H40/1s inactivation rate at Kappelen.     

Variability of the gas transfer velocity of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> in a macrotidal estuary (the Scheldt)

We report a large set of 295 interfacial carbon dioxide (CO₂) flux measurements obtained in the Scheldt estuary in November 2002 and April 2003, using the floating chamber method. From concomitant measurements of the air-water CO₂ gradient, we computed the gas transfer velocity of CO₂. The gas transfer velocity is well correlated to wind speed and a simple linear regression function gives the most consistent fit to the data. Based on water current measurements, we estimated the contribution of water current induced turbulence to the gas transfer velocity, using the conceptual relationship of O'Connor and Dobbins (1958). This allowed us to construct an empirical relationship to compute the gas transfer velocity of CO₂ that accounts for the contribution of wind and water current. Based on this relationship, the spatial and temporal variability of the gas transfer velocity in the Scheldt estuary was investigated. Water currents contribute significantly to the gas transfer velocity, but the spatial and temporal variability (from daily to seasonal scales) is mainly related to wind speed variability.     

Satellite-Derived ERS scatterometer sea-surface wind-stress curl in the southwestern Indian Ocean

Surface marine wind data base from ERS-1 scatterometer has been processed to define the characteristic seasonal distribution of wind-stress curl throughout the southwestern Indian Ocean between January and December 1994. A compact model to obtain satellite-derived wind-stress curl fields on smaller scales than previously available is proposed and evaluated. The results indicate the strong capability of the ERS-1 scatterometer to monitor wind-driven variations in the mesoscale ocean patterns. To cite this article: M. Petit et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

Analysis of organic matter by flash pyrolysis-gas chromatography–mass spectrometry in the presence of Na-smectite: When clay minerals lead to identical molecular signature

Different studies have already pointed out the influence of clays during the analysis of pure organic compounds (especially alkanols, alkanoic acids) as well as macromolecules (humic acids) by flash pyrolysis-gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (PyGC–MS). Especially, the occurrence of clay minerals favors the generation of aromatic units such as alkylbenzenes and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. So as to better identify the nature of the organic compounds which are sensitive to the presence of clays during flash pyrolysis, a humic acid mixed in variable proportions of a Na-homoionic clay was tested. The smectite/humic acid mixtures containing from 10% to 100% humic acid allowed us to identify the progressive disappearance or appearance of specific compounds after PyGC–MS.n-Alk-1-enes disappear when the clay proportion is higher than 67%. For higher contents of Na-smectite, n-alkanes become less and less abundant with a preferential consumption of high molecular weight n-alkanes, whereas the aromatic hydrocarbon proportion increases. Moreover, the distribution of each aromatic hydrocarbon family (alkylbenzenes and alkylnaphthalenes) has been investigated. The pyrogram of pure humic acid exhibits a specific distribution of alkylbenzenes and alkylnaphthalenes reflecting the structure of the organic macromolecule. With the increase in clay proportion, these distributions are modified and lead to other distributions with a preferential predominance of thermally stable isomers.Pyrograms of humic acid and undecanoic acid in the presence of 90% of Na-smectite are similar, especially concerning alkylbenzene and alkylnaphthalene distributions. Therefore, clays (Na-smectite in our experiments) in high proportion modify initial organic products by recombination reactions and lead to the generation of new compounds of very similar distribution, whatever the nature of the initial organic matter. Such results underline the very important catalytic properties of clay minerals on functionalized organic matter during flash pyrolysis.