Deriving fragility functions from bilinearized capacity curves for earthquake scenario modelling using the conditional spectrum

The development of fragility curves to perform seismic scenario-based risk assessment requires a fully probabilistic procedure in order to account for uncertainties at each step of the computation. This is especially true when developing fragility curves conditional on an Intensity Measure that is directly available from a ground-motion prediction equation. In this study, we propose a new derivation method that uses realistic spectra instead of design spectral shapes or uniform hazard spectra and allows one to easily account for the features of the site-specific hazard that influences the fragility, without using non-linear dynamic analysis. The proposed method has been applied to typical school building types in the city of Basel (Switzerland) and the results have been compared to the standard practice in Europe. The results confirm that fragility curves are scenario dependent and are particularly sensitive to the magnitude of the earthquake scenario. The same background theory used for the derivation of the fragility curves has allowed an innovative method to be proposed for the conversion of fragility curves to a common IM (i.e. spectral acceleration or PGA). This conversion is the only way direct comparisons of fragility curves can be made and is useful when inter-period correlation cannot be used in scenario loss assessment. Moreover, such conversion is necessary to compare and verify newly developed curves against those from previous studies. Conversion to macroseismic intensity is also relevant for the comparison between mechanical-based and empirical fragility curves, in order to detect possible biases.     

Determination of Radiogenic 87Sr/86Sr and Stable δ88/86SrSRM987 Isotope Values of Thirteen Mineral,Vegetal and Animal Reference Materials by DS‐TIMS

This work presents new ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and δ^88/86Sr_SRM987 isotopic values of thirteen mineral, vegetal and animal reference materials. Except for UB‐N, all our results are consistent with previously published data. Our results highlight intermediate precisions among the best presently published and a non‐significant systematic shift with the calculated δ^88/86Sr_SRM987 mean values for the three most analysed reference materials in the literature (i.e., IAPSO, BCR‐2 and JCp‐1). By comparison with the literature and between two distinct digestions, a significant bias of δ^88/86Sr_SRM987 values was highlighted for two reference materials (UB‐N and GS‐N). It has also been shown that digestion protocols (nitric and multi‐acid) have a moderate impact on the δ^88/86Sr_SRM987 isotopic values for the Jls‐1 reference materials suggesting that a nitric acid digestion of carbonate can be used without significant bias from partial digestion of non‐carbonate impurities. Different δ^88/86Sr_SRM987 values were measured after two independent Sr/matrix separations, according to the same protocol, for a fat‐rich organic reference material (BCR‐380R) and have been related to a potential post‐digestion heterogeneity. Finally, the δ^88/86Sr_SRM987 value differences measured between animal‐vegetal and between coral‐seawater reference materials agree with the previously published results, highlighting an Sr isotopic fractionation along the trophic chain and during carbonate precipitation.     

Debris-flow Indicator for an early warning system in the Aosta valley region

Natural Hazards - Aosta Valley, an Alpine region in north-western Italy, has an early warning system (EWS) that issues hydrogeological alerts based on hydrological modelling and rainfall thresholds...     

Using slowness and azimuth fluctuations as new observables for four‐dimensional reservoir seismic monitoring

Four‐dimensional imaging using geophysical data is of increasing interest in the oil and gas industries. While travel‐time and amplitude variations are commonly used to monitor reservoir properties at depth, their interpretation can suffer from a lack of information to decipher the parts played by different parameters. In this context, this study focuses on the slowness and azimuth angle measured at the surface using source and receiver arrays as complementary observables. In the first step, array processing techniques are used to extract both azimuth and incidence angles at the source side (departure angles) and at the receiver side (arrival angles). In the second step, the slowness and angle variations are monitored in a laboratory environment. These new observables are compared with traditional arrival‐time variations when the propagation medium is subject to temperature fluctuations. Finally, field data from a heavy‐oil permanent reservoir monitoring system installed onshore and facing steam injection and temperature variations are investigated. The slowness variations are computed over a period of 152 days. In agreement with Fermat's principle, strong correlations between the slowness and arrival‐time variations are highlighted, as well as good consistency with other techniques and field pressure measurements. Although the temporal variations of slowness and arrival time show the same features, there are still differences that can be considered for further characterization of the physical changes at depth.     

Migratory behaviour of spawning rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Tongariro River,New Zealand,after habitat alteration

The movements of 92 adult rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) from Lake Taupo into the Tongariro River, New Zealand, were monitored using radio‐telemetry every 3 days during the main spawning period between May and November 2003. This study repeated one previously conducted in 1995. Differences in spawning site preference and resting locations between 1995 and 2003 probably reflect differences in the nature of the river as a result of major natural floods that occurred in 1998. Average migration times were slower than in 1995 and the correlation between flow and mean daily movement was less distinct owing to the dry and settled weather during July and August, although fish did respond to freshets when they occurred. Peak movement occurred between 1600 and 2000 h NZ Standard Time with no movement occurring between midnight and 0400. Fish adjusted their movement in response to changing photoperiod. Nineteen fish were observed above the mouths of natal tributary streams for several weeks in the main river stem before entering these tributaries.     

Climate change impact on waves in the Bay of Biscay, France

The knowledge of offshore and coastal wave climate evolution towards the end of the twenty-first century is particularly important for human activities in a region such as the Bay of Biscay and the French Atlantic coast. Using dynamical downscaling, a high spatial resolution dataset of wave conditions in the Bay of Biscay is built for three future greenhouse gases emission scenarios. Projected wave heights, periods and directions are analysed at regional scale and more thoroughly at two buoys positions, offshore and along the coast. A general decrease of wave heights is identified (up to ?20?cm during summer within the Bay off Biscay), as well as a clockwise shift of summer waves and winter swell coming from direction. The relation between those changes and wind changes is investigated and highlights a complex association of processes at several spatial scales. For instance, the intensification and the northeastward shift of strong wind core in the North Atlantic Ocean explain the clockwise shift of winter swell directions. During summer, the decrease of the westerly winds in the Bay of Biscay explains the clockwise shift and the wave height decrease of wind sea and intermediate waves. Finally, the analysis reveals that the offshore changes in the wave height and the wave period as well as the clockwise shift in the wave direction continue toward the coast. This wave height decrease result is consistent with other regional projections and would impact the coastal dynamics by reducing the longshore sediment flux.     

Petrological and experimental evidence for differentiation of water-rich magmas beneath St. Kitts,Lesser Antilles

St. Kitts lies in the northern Lesser Antilles, a subduction-related intraoceanic volcanic arc known for its magmatic diversity and unusually abundant cognate xenoliths. We combine the geochemistry of xenoliths, melt inclusions and lavas with high pressure–temperature experiments to explore magma differentiation processes beneath St. Kitts. Lavas range from basalt to rhyolite, with predominant andesites and basaltic andesites. Xenoliths, dominated by calcic plagioclase and amphibole, typically in reaction relationship with pyroxenes and olivine, can be divided into plutonic and cumulate varieties based on mineral textures and compositions. Cumulate varieties, formed primarily by the accumulation of liquidus phases, comprise ensembles that represent instantaneous solid compositions from one or more magma batches; plutonic varieties have mineralogy and textures consistent with protracted solidification of magmatic mush. Mineral chemistry in lavas and xenoliths is subtly different. For example, plagioclase with unusually high anorthite content (An_≤100) occurs in some plutonic xenoliths, whereas the most calcic plagioclase in cumulate xenoliths and lavas are An₉₇ and An₉₅, respectively. Fluid-saturated, equilibrium crystallisation experiments were performed on a St. Kitts basaltic andesite, with three different fluid compositions (XH₂O = 1.0, 0.66 and 0.33) at 2.4 kbar, 950–1025 °C, and fO₂ = NNO ? 0.6 to NNO + 1.2 log units. Experiments reproduce lava liquid lines of descent and many xenolith assemblages, but fail to match xenolith and lava phenocryst mineral compositions, notably the very An-rich plagioclase. The strong positive correlation between experimentally determined plagioclase-melt Kd_Ca–Na and dissolved H₂O in the melt, together with the occurrence of Al-rich mafic lavas, suggests that parental magmas were water-rich (> 9 wt% H₂O) basaltic andesites that crystallised over a wide pressure range (1.5–6 kbar). Comparison of experimental and natural (lava, xenolith) mafic mineral composition reveals that whereas olivine in lavas is predominantly primocrysts precipitated at low-pressure, pyroxenes and spinel are predominantly xenocrysts formed by disaggregation of plutonic mushes. Overall, St. Kitts xenoliths and lavas testify to mid-crustal differentiation of low-MgO basalt and basaltic andesite magmas within a trans-crustal, magmatic mush system. Lower crustal ultramafic cumulates that relate parental low-MgO basalts to primary, mantle -derived melts are absent on St. Kitts.     

Tracing sediment redistribution across a break in slope using rare earth elements

Experimentally determined spatial patterns of soil redistribution across a break in slope derived using 10 rare earth element (REE) oxides as sediment tracers are presented. An erosion experiment was conducted using simulated rainfall within a laboratory slope model measuring 2·5 m wide by 6 m long with a gradient of 15° declining to 2°. Soil was tagged with multiple REE and placed in different locations over the slope and at the end of the experiment REE concentrations were measured in samples collected spatially. A new method was developed to quantify the erosion and deposition depths spatially, the relative source contributions to deposited sediment and the sediment transport distances. Particle‐size selectivity over an area of net deposition was also investigated, by combining downslope changes in particle‐size distributions with changes in sediment REE composition within a flow pathway. During the experiment, the surface morphology evolved through upslope propagation of rill headcuts, which gradually incised the different REE‐tagged zones and led to sediment deposition at the break in slope and the development of a fan extending over the shallow slope segment. The spatial patterns in REE concentrations, the derived erosion and deposition depths, the relative source contributions to deposition zones and the sediment transport distances, corroborate the morphological observations and demonstrate the potential of using REE for quantifying sediment transport processes. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.