A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates

River discharge and nutrient measurements are subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating these uncertainties in colocated discharge and phosphorus (P) measurements. The “voting point”‐based method constrains the derived stage‐discharge rating curve both on the fit to available gaugings and to the catchment water balance. This helps reduce the uncertainty beyond the range of available gaugings and during out of bank situations. In the example presented here, for the top 5% of flows, uncertainties are shown to be 139% using a traditional power law fit, compared with 40% when using our updated “voting point” method. Furthermore, the method is extended to in situ and lab analysed nutrient concentration data pairings, with lower uncertainties (81%) shown for high concentrations (top 5%) than when a traditional regression is applied (102%). Overall, for both discharge and nutrient data, the method presented goes some way to accounting for epistemic uncertainties associated with nonstationary physical characteristics of the monitoring site.     

Atmospheric nitrogen inputs into the North Sea: effect on productivity

The ANICE (Atmospheric Nitrogen Inputs into the Coastal Ecosystem) project addressed the atmospheric deposition of nitrogen to the North Sea, with emphasis on coastal effects. ANICE focused on quantifying the deposition of inorganic nitrogen compounds to the North Sea and the governing processes. An overview of the results from modelling and experimental efforts is presented. They serve to identify the role of the atmosphere as a source of biologically essential chemical species to the marine biota. Data from the Weybourne Atmospheric Observatory (UK) are used to evaluate the effect of short episodes with very high atmospheric nitrogen concentrations. One such episode resulted in an average deposition of 0.8 mmol N m⁻² day⁻¹, which has the potential to promote primary productivity of 5.3 mmol C m⁻² day⁻¹. This value is compared to long-term effects determined from model results. The total calculated atmospheric deposition to the North Sea in 1999 is 948 kg N km⁻¹, i.e. 0.19 mmol N m⁻² day⁻¹ which has the potential to promote primary productivity of 1.2 mmol C m⁻² day⁻¹. Detailed results for August 1999 show strong gradients across the North Sea due to adjacent areas where emissions of NO_x and NH₃ are among the highest in Europe. The average atmospheric deposition to the southern part of the North Sea in August 1999 could potentially promote primary production of 2.0 mmol C m⁻² day⁻¹, i.e. 5.5% of the total production at this time of the year in this area of the North Sea. For the entire study area the atmospheric contribution to the primary production per m² is about two-third of this value. Most of the deposition occurs during short periods with high atmospheric concentrations. This atmospheric nitrogen is almost entirely anthropogenic in origin and thus represents a human-induced perturbation of the ecosystem.     

Petrology and origin of amoeboid olivine aggregates in CR chondrites

Abstract— Amoeboid olivine aggregates (AOAs) are irregularly shaped, fine‐grained aggregates of olivine and Ca, Al‐rich minerals and are important primitive components of CR chondrites. The AOAs in CR chondrites contain FeNi metal, and some AOAs contain Mn‐rich forsterite with up to 0.7 MnO and Mn:Fe ratios greater than one. Additionally, AOAs in the CR chondrites do not contain secondary phases (nepheline and fayalitic olivine) that are found in AOAs in some CV chondrites. The AOAs in CR chondrites record a complex petrogenetic history that included nebular gas‐solid condensation, reaction of minerals with the nebular gas, small degrees of melting, and sintering of the assemblage. A condensation origin for the Mn‐rich forsterite is proposed. The Mn‐rich forsterite found in IDPs, unequilibrated ordinary chondrite matrix, and AOAs in CR chondrites may have had a similar origin. A type A calcium, aluminum‐rich inclusion (CAI) with an AOA attached to its Wark‐Lovering rim is also described. This discovery reveals a temporal relationship between AOAs and type A inclusions. Additionally, a thin layer of forsterite is present as part of the Wark‐Lovering rim, revealing the crystallization of olivine at the end stages of Wark‐Lovering rim formation. The Ca, Al‐rich nodules in the AOAs may be petrogenetically related to the Ca, Al‐rich minerals in Wark‐Lovering rims on type A CAIs. AOAs are chondrite components that condensed during the final stage of Wark‐Lovering rim formation but, in general, were temporally, spatially, or kinetically isolated from reacting with the nebula vapor during condensation of the lower temperature minerals that were commonly present as chondrule precursors.     

Comparison of flood hazard assessments on desert piedmonts and playas: A case study in Ivanpah Valley, Nevada

Accurate and realistic characterizations of flood hazards on desert piedmonts and playas are increasingly important given the rapid urbanization of arid regions. Flood behavior in arid fluvial systems differs greatly from that of the perennial rivers upon which most conventional flood hazard assessment methods are based. Additionally, hazard assessments may vary widely between studies or even contradict other maps. This study's chief objective was to compare and evaluate landscape interpretation and hazard assessment between types of maps depicting assessments of flood risk in Ivanpah Valley, NV, as a case study. As a secondary goal, we explain likely causes of discrepancy between data sets to ameliorate confusion for map users. Four maps, including three different flood hazard assessments of Ivanpah Valley, NV, were compared: (i) a regulatory map prepared by FEMA, (ii) a soil survey map prepared by NRCS, (iii) a surficial geologic map, and (iv) a flood hazard map derived from the surficial geologic map, both of which were prepared by NBMG. GIS comparisons revealed that only 3.4% (33.9 km²) of Ivanpah Valley was found to lie within a FEMA floodplain, while the geologic flood hazard map indicated that ~ 44% of Ivanpah Valley runs some risk of flooding (Fig. 2D). Due to differences in mapping methodology and scale, NRCS data could not be quantitatively compared, and other comparisons were complicated by differences in flood hazard class criteria and terminology between maps. Owing to its scale and scope of attribute data, the surficial geologic map provides the most useful information on flood hazards for land-use planning. This research has implications for future soil geomorphic mapping and flood risk mitigation on desert piedmonts and playas. The Ivanpah Valley study area also includes the location of a planned new international airport, thus this study has immediate implications for urban development and land-use planning near Las Vegas, NV.     

Plasmasphere convection patterns observed simultaneously from two ground stations

Whistler data recorded during a 14 h period on 10–11 July 1973 at Siple (L = 4.17) and Sanae (L = 3.98) have been used to compare the apparent plasma convection patterns observed from these Antarctic stations. Two distinct bulges in the plasmasphere are seen at both stations, each bulge corresponding to an apparent outflowed followed by in flow of plasma. These structures do not coincide in U.T. or M.L.T. The first bulge is seen at Siple almost 1 h earlier in M.L.T. than at Sanae and the second bulge almost 3 h earlier. This is interpreted in terms of a fairly rapid westward and inward movement of the plasmasphere structure.     

Infiltration Metasomatism of Cumulates by Intrusive Magma Replenishment: the Wavy Horizon, Isle of Rum, Scotland

The Eastern Layered Intrusion of the Rum Layered Suite comprisespaired peridotite and allivalite (troctolite and gabbro) layersforming 16 macro-rhythmic units. Whereas the majority of thesemacro-units are believed to have formed by a process of crystal–liquiddifferentiation involving successive accumulation of crystalsfrom multiple picritic replenishments of the chamber, the Unit9 peridotite is interpreted as a layer-parallel picrite intrusion.Closely correlated with this discontinuous peridotite body isa distinctive feature generally known as the Wavy Horizon, whichdivides the overlying allivalite into a lower troctolite andan upper gabbro along a well-defined undulating contact. Wepropose that the Wavy Horizon is a metasomatic feature formedconsequent to the removal of clinopyroxene from an originalgabbroic mush. Foundering of the mush into the picritic sillresulted in the replacement of the original interstitial liquidby one saturated only in olivine (± plagioclase). Progressivethrough-flow of this liquid resulted in the stripping out ofclinopyroxene from the lower parts of the allivalite. We interpretthe Wavy Horizon as a reaction front, representing the pointat which the invading liquid became saturated in clinopyroxene.The distinctive pyroxene-enriched zone immediately above theWavy Horizon could have formed when mixing of the interstitialliquids on either side of the reaction front formed a supercooledliquid oversaturated in pyroxene, as a result of the curvatureof the olivine–plagioclase–clinopyroxene cotectic.The presence of many such approximately layer-parallel features,defined by differences in pyroxene content, in the Eastern LayeredIntrusion of Rum suggests that such an infiltration–reactionprocess was not unique to Unit 9. KEY WORDS: cumulate; infiltration metasomatism; Rum; Eastern Layered Intrusion