Changes to the drivers of fire weather with a warming climate – a case study of southeast Tasmania

Projected changes to the global climate system have great implications for the incidence of large infrequent fires in many regions. Here we examine the synoptic-scale and local-scale influences on the incidence of extreme fire weather days and consider projections of the large-scale mean climate to explore future fire weather projections. We focus on a case study region with periodic extreme fire dangers; southeast Tasmania, Australia. We compare the performance of a dynamically downscaled regional climate model with Global Climate Model outputs as a tool for examining the local-scale influences while accounting for high regional variability. Many of the worst fires in Tasmania and the southeast Australian region are associated with deep cold fronts and strong prefrontal winds. The downscaled simulations reproduce this synoptic type with greater fidelity than a typical global climate model. The incidence of systems in this category is projected to increase through the century under a high emission scenario, driven mainly by an increase in the temperature of air masses, with little change in the strength of the systems. The regional climate model projected increase in frequency is smaller than for the global climate models used as input, with a large model range and natural variability. We also demonstrate how a blocking Foehn effect and topographic channelling contributed to the extreme conditions during an extreme fire weather day in Tasmania in January 2013. Effects such as these are likely to contribute to high fire danger throughout the century. Regional climate models are useful tools that enable various meteorological drivers of fire danger to be considered in projections of future fire danger.     

Experimental determination of photostability and fluorescence‐based detection of PAHs on the Martian surface

Abstract– Even in the absence of any biosphere on Mars, organic molecules, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), are expected on its surface due to delivery by comets and meteorites of extraterrestrial organics synthesized by astrochemistry, or perhaps in situ synthesis in ancient prebiotic chemistry. Any organic compounds exposed to the unfiltered solar ultraviolet spectrum or oxidizing surface conditions would have been readily destroyed, but discoverable caches of Martian organics may remain shielded in the subsurface or within surface rocks. We have studied the stability of three representative polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in a Mars chamber, emulating the ultraviolet spectrum of unfiltered sunlight under temperature and pressure conditions of the Martian surface. Fluorescence spectroscopy is used as a sensitive indicator of remaining PAH concentration for laboratory quantification of molecular degradation rates once exposed on the Martian surface. Fluorescence‐based instrumentation has also been proposed as an effective surveying method for prebiotic organics on the Martian surface. We find the representative PAHs, anthracene, pyrene, and perylene, to have persistence half‐lives once exposed on the Martian surface of between 25 and 60 h of noontime summer UV irradiation, as measured by fluorescence at their peak excitation wavelength. This equates to between 4 and 9.6 sols when the diurnal cycle of UV light intensity on the Martian surface is taken into account, giving a substantial window of opportunity for detection of organic fluorescence before photodegradation. This study thus supports the use of fluorescence‐based instrumentation for surveying recently exposed material (such as from cores or drill tailings) for native Martian organic molecules in rover missions.     

Strontium-calcium ratios in Cenozoic planktonic foraminifera

The $\text{Sr}\text{Ca}$ ratio and other parameters have been measured in fossil planktonic foraminifera from the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins in order to evaluate the $\text{Sr}\text{Ca}$ ratio of seawater during the last 75 million years. Results on well-preserved samples indicate that the ratio has increased to its present value by 10–15% during the Cenozoic, and that minima occurred between 55-45 Ma and 10-5 Ma, when the ratio was 15–25% less than at present. The long-term increase may reflect either decreasing deposition of aragonite with a high $\text{Sr}\text{Ca}$ ratio in shallow seas, or decreasing seafloor spreading rates and consequently decreasing hydrothermal supply of Ca during the Cenozoic. Other geologic evidence suggests that the Eocene minimum (near 50 Ma) may have resulted from increased aragonite sedimentation, while the Late Miocene minimum (between 10-5 Ma) may have been caused by an increased rate of seawater-basalt exchange when seafloor spreading rates increased on the East Pacific Rise near 10 Ma.     

Depositional history of artificial radionuclides in the Ross Ice Shelf,Antarctica

The annual fluxes of artificial radionuclides (²³⁸Pu,^239+240Pu,²⁴¹Am,¹³⁷Cs,⁹⁰Sr and³H) from the atmosphere to the Ross Ice Shelf in Antarctica were determined from measurements in strata dated by²¹⁰Pb. Recognizable sources include the U.S. tests (Mike-Ivy and Castle Hill) in the early 1950s, the U.S.S.R. tests of the early 1960s, the SNAP-9A burnup of 1964 and the French and Chinese tests in the late 1960s and 1970s. There are several problems still awaiting resolution: the differences in atmospheric chemistries of fission products and of transuranics produced in weapons tests and the anomalous fluxes of²³⁸Pu to the ice shelf which do not appear to reflect a one-year stratospheric residence. There is no evidence for a smearing of the fallout record as a consequence of diffusion of these radionuclides in the glacial column.     

Using analytic element models to delineate drinking water source protection areas

Since 1999, Ohio EPA hydrogeologists have used two analytic element models (AEMs), the proprietary software GFLOW and U.S. EPA's WhAEM, to delineate protection areas for 535 public water systems. Both models now use the GFLOW2001 solution engine, integrate well with Geographic Information System (GIS) technology, have a user-friendly graphical interface, are capable of simulating a variety of complex hydrogeologic settings, and do not rely upon a model grid. These features simplify the modeling process and enable AEMs to bridge the gap between existing simplistic delineation methods and more complex numerical models. Ohio EPA hydrogeologists demonstrated that WhAEM2000 and GFLOW2000 were capable of producing capture zones similar to more widely accepted models by applying the AEMs to eight sites that had been previously delineated using other methods. After the Ohio EPA delineated protection areas using AEMs, more simplistic delineation methods used by other states (volumetric equation and arbitrary fixed radii) were applied to the same water systems to compare the differences between various methods. GIS software and two-tailed paired t-tests were used to quantify the differences in protection areas and analyze the data. The results of this analysis demonstrate that AEMs typically produce significantly different protection areas than the most simplistic delineation methods, in terms of total area and shape. If the volumetric equation had been used instead of AEMs, Ohio would not have protected 265 km2 of critical upgradient area and would have overprotected 269 km2 of primarily downgradient land. Since an increasing number of land-use restrictions are being tied to drinking water protection areas, this analysis has broad policy implications.     

World Soil Day and earth surface processes

To celebrate World Soil Day 2014, this editorial summary and Special Issue draws together a number of the most significant contributions that have appeared in Earth Surface Processes and Landforms since 2010. As a group they show the increasing importance of interdisciplinary work in this area of overlap, and point to significant opportunities for future research development, particularly with respect to integrated modelling and interactions with climate change. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The ECOMAN project: A novel approach to defining sustainable ecosystem function

The ECOMAN was initiated in 2001 by the University of Plymouth, UK, Plymouth Marine Laboratory and the Department of the Environment, Fisheries and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) to address the need for more pragmatic assessment techniques linking environmental degradation with its causes. The primary aim of the project was to develop an evidence-based approach in which suites of easy-to-use, cost-effective and environmentally valid biological responses (biomarkers) could be used together to assess the health of coastal systems through the general condition of individuals. A range of sub-lethal endpoints, chosen to reflect successive levels of biological organisation (molecular, cellular, physiological), was evaluated in common coastal organisms showing different feeding types (filter feeding, grazing, predation) and habitat requirements (estuary, rocky shore). Initially, the suite of biomarkers was used in laboratory studies to determine the relative sensitivities of key species within different functional groups to common contaminants. These results were then validated in field studies performed in a range of ecosystems exhibiting different degrees/signatures of contamination. Here, an example is provided of a field study in the Humber Estuary, UK, which illustrates how multivariate statistical analysis can be used to identify patterns of response to discriminate between contaminated and clean sites. The use of a holistic, integrated approach of this kind is advocated as a practical means of assessing the impact of chemical contamination on organismal health and of ranking the status of marine ecosystems.