Towards a theory of targeting

A representative economic model is used to analyze local policies to reestablish full employment. It addresses three types of barriers: 1. Rigid wages, 2. Occupational (or industrial) immobility, and 3. Geographic immobility. These factors are considered in the framework of three types of policies: 1. Laissez-faire, 2. Narrowly targeted employment incentives, and 3. Broadly targeted incentives. The paper concludes that the usefulness of the abstract model will depends upon the ability of local development officials to combine the implications of the model with information about the local economic development narrative. In turn, the narrative depends upon an in-depth local knowledge of history, institutions, practices and personalities.     

Application of a simple binary mixing model to the reconstruction of lead pollution sources in two Mississippi River floodplain lakes

A simple binary mixing model is used to determine the isotopic ratios of lead (Pb) pollution sources to a lake located near a smelter closed because of excessive Pb aerosols (Horseshoe Lake Madison County, Illinois, USA). As a control, we also examine a relatively unpolluted lake in a rural area of Southern Illinois (Horseshoe Lake Alexander County). Sediment cores were taken from both lakes and analyzed for Pb and Pb isotopes by ICP-MS. The mixing model shows that Madison County Horseshoe Lake had 3 different sources of Pb in its history. The first source is sediment from the Mississippi River with an intermediate ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb ratio (1.223 ± 0.009) which dominates inputs in pre-settlement times. From 1750 to 1933, the source of pollution Pb has the high ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb ratio (1.256 ± 0.005) characteristic of ore from the southeast Missouri Pb mines. The most recently deposited pollution Pb comes from a source with a low ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb ratio (1.202 ± 0.005). This source is similar in isotopic composition to pollution Pb found by several other investigators in the Eastern US and probably represents the mixture of ores used in modern industrial processes. It is unclear from the isotopic composition whether this source at Horseshoe Lake is the local Pb smelter or vehicle exhaust. The sediment core from Horseshoe Lake, Alexander County, shows a less variable isotopic composition. The binary mixing model showed a source composition of 1.225 ± 0.003 before 1850 and 1.231 ± 0.003 after this date. The change does not indicate a pollution source, but may be a shift in the sources of natural sediment with slightly different isotopic ratios to the lake. Our results show the value of simple binary mixing models to reconstruct the isotopic composition of Pb sources to lakes.     

The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation of very extreme US precipitation events in a global atmosphere model

We investigate the ability of a global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to reproduce observed 20 year return values of the annual maximum daily precipitation totals over the continental United States as a function of horizontal resolution. We find that at the high resolutions enabled by contemporary supercomputers, the AGCM can produce values of comparable magnitude to high quality observations. However, at the resolutions typical of the coupled general circulation models used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the precipitation return values are severely underestimated.     

Subduction Influence on Oxygen Fugacity and Trace and Volatile Elements in Basalts Across the Cascade Volcanic Arc

Fluids or melts derived from a subducting plate are often citedas a mechanism for the oxidation of arc magmas. What remainsunclear is the link between the fluid, oxygen fugacity, andother major and trace components, as well as the spatial distributionof the impact of those fluids. To test the potential effectsof addition of a subduction-derived fluid or melt to the sub-arcmantle, olivine-hosted melt inclusions from primitive basalticlavas sampled from across the central Oregon Cascades (43°–45°N)have been analyzed for major, trace and volatile elements andfO₂. Oxygen fugacity was determined in melt inclusions fromsulfur speciation determined by electron microprobe and fromolivine–chromite oxygen geobarometry. The overall rangein fO₂ based on sulfur speciation measurements is from <–0·25log units to + 1·9 log units (FMQ, where FMQ is fayalite–magnetite–quartzbuffer). Oxygen fugacity is positively correlated with fluid-mobiletrace element and light rare earth element contents in basaltsgenerated by relatively low-degree partial melting. Establishinga further correlation between fO₂ and fluid-mobile trace elementabundances with position along the arc requires the basaltsto be subdivided into shoshonitic, calc-alkaline, low-K tholeiiteand enriched intraplate basalt groups. Melt inclusions fromenriched intraplate and shoshonitic lavas show increasing fO₂and trace element abundances closer to the trench, whereas calc-alkalinemelt inclusions exhibit no significant across-arc variations.Low-K tholeiitic melt inclusions record an increase in incompatibletrace elements closer to the trench; however, there is no correlatedincrease in fO₂. The correlation observed in enriched intraplateand shoshonitic melt inclusions is interpreted to reflect aprogressively greater proportion of a fluid-rich, oxidized subductioncomponent in magmas generated nearer the subduction zone. Significantly,calc-alkaline melt inclusions with high ratios of large ionlithophile elements to high field strength elements, characteristicof ‘typical’ arc magmas, have oxidation states indistinguishablefrom low-K tholeiite and enriched intraplate basalt melt inclusions.The lack of across-arc geochemical variation in calc-alkalinemelt inclusions may suggest that these basalts are not necessarilythe most appropriate magmas for examining recent addition ofa subduction component to the sub-arc mantle. Flux and batchmelt model results produce a wide range of predicted amountsof melting and subduction component added to the mantle source;however, general trends characterized by increased melting andproportion of the subduction component from enriched intraplate,to low-K tholeiite, to calc-alkaline are robust. The model resultsdo not require enriched intraplate, low-K tholeiite and calc-alkalinemagmas to be produced from the same more fertile mantle source.However, enriched intraplate magmas, in contrast to calc-alkalineand low-K tholeiite magmas, cannot be generated from a depletedmantle source. Flux or batch melting of either the more fertileor depleted mantle sources used to generate the low-K tholeiite,calc-alkaline, and enriched intraplate magmas cannot reproduceshoshonitic compositions, which require a significantly depletedmantle source strongly metasomatized by a subduction component.The potential mantle source for shoshonitic basalts has a predictedfO₂ (after oxidation) from + 0·3 to + 2·4 logunits (FMQ) whereas the mantle source for low-K tholeiite, calc-alkaline,and enriched intraplate magmas may range from –1·1to + 0·7 log units (FMQ). KEY WORDS: basalt; Cascades; melt inclusions; oxidation state; volatiles     

Suppression of the large‐scale Lorentz force by turbulence

The components of the total stress tensor (Reynolds stress plus Maxwell stress) are computed within the quasilinear approximation for a driven turbulence influenced by a large‐scale magnetic background field. The conducting fluid has an arbitrary magnetic Prandtl number and the turbulence without the background field is assumed as homogeneous and isotropic with a free Strouhal number St. The total large‐scale magnetic tension is always reduced by the turbulence with the possibility of a ‘catastrophic quenching’ for large magnetic Reynolds number Rm so that even its sign is reversed. The total magnetic pressure is enhanced by turbulence in the high‐conductivity limit but it is reduced in the low‐conductivity limit. Also in this case the sign of the total pressure may reverse but only for special turbulences with sufficiently large St > 1. The turbulence‐induced terms of the stress tensor are suppressed by strong magnetic fields. For the tension term this quenching grows with the square of the Hartmann number of the magnetic field. For microscopic (i.e. small) diffusivity values the magnetic tension term becomes thus highly quenched even for field amplitudes much smaller than their equipartition value. In the opposite case of large‐eddy simulations the magnetic quenching is only mild but then also the turbulence‐induced Maxwell tensor components for weak fields remain rather small (© 2011 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Modelling of sediment supply from torrent catchments in the Western Alps using the sediment contributing area (SCA) approach

The production of coarse sediment in mountain landscapes depends mainly on the type and activity of geomorphic processes and topographic and natural conditions (e.g. vegetation cover) of these catchments. The supply of sediment from these slopes to mountain streams and its subsequent transport lead to sediment connectivity, which describes the integrated coupled state of these systems. Studies from the Northern Calcareous Alps show that the size of the sediment contributing area (SCA), a subset of the drainage area that effectively delivers sediment to the channel network, can be used as a predictor of sediment delivery to mountain streams. The SCA concept is delineated on a digital elevation model (DEM) using a set of rules related to the steepness and length of slopes directly adjacent to the channel network, the gradient of the latter and the vegetation cover. The present study investigates the applicability of this concept to the Western Alps to identify geomorphologically active areas and to estimate mean annual sediment yield (SY) in mainly debris-flow-prone catchments. We use a statistical approach that shows a parameter optimisation and a linear regression of SY on SCA extent. We use a dataset of ~25 years of assessed coarse sediment accumulation in 35 sediment retention basins. In the investigated catchments, sediment transport is governed by several factors, mainly by the extent of vegetation-free areas with a minimum slope of 23° that is coupled to the channel network with a very low gradient of the latter. With our improved framework, we can show that the SCA approach can be applied to catchments that are widely distributed, in a large spatial scale (hectare area) and very heterogeneous in their properties. In general, the investigated catchments show high connectivity, resulting in significant correlations between long-term average yield and the size of the SCA.     

The relative importance of tropical variability forced from the North Pacific through ocean pathways

To what extent is tropical variability forced from the North Pacific through ocean pathways relative to locally generated variability and variability forced through the atmosphere? To address this question, in this study we use an anomaly-coupled model, consisting of a global, atmospheric general circulation model and a 4½-layer, reduced-gravity, Pacific-Ocean model. Three solutions are obtained; with coupling over the entire basin (CNT), with coupling confined to the tropics and wind stress and heat fluxes in the North and South Pacific specified by climatology (TP), and with coupling confined to the Tropics and wind stress and heat fluxes in the North Pacific specified by output from CNT (NPF). It is found that there are two distinct signals forced in the North Pacific that can impact the tropics through ocean pathways. These two signals are forced by wind stress and surface heat flux anomalies in the subtropical North Pacific. The first signal is relatively fast, impacts tropical variability less than a year after forcing, is triggered from November to March, and propagates as a first-mode baroclinic Rossby wave. The second signal is only triggered during springtime when buoyancy forcing can effectively generate higher-order baroclinic modes through subduction anomalies into the permanent thermocline, and it reaches the equator 4–5 years after forcing. The slow signal is found to initiate tropical variability more efficiently than the fast signal with one standard deviation in subtropical zonal wind stress forcing tropical SST anomalies centered on the equator at 135°W of approximately 0.5°C. Allowing extratropically forced tropical variability is found to shift primarily 2-year ENSO variability in a tropics-alone simulation to a more realistic range of 2–6 years.