Effective and Equitable Dissemination of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Forecasts: Policy Implications from the Peruvian Fishery during El Niño 1997–98

The development of seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions has spurred widespread claims that the dissemination of such forecasts will yield benefits for society. Based on the use as well as non-use of forecasts in the Peruvian fishery during the 1997–98 El Niño event, weidentify: (1) potential constraints on the realization of benefits, such aslimited access to and understanding of information, and unintended reactions; (2) theneed for an appropriately detailed definition of societal benefit, considering whose welfare counts as a benefit among groups such as labor, industry, consumers, citizens of different regions, and future generations.We argue that consideration of who benefits, and an understanding of potential socioeconomic constraints and how they might be addressed, should be brought to bear on forecast dissemination choices. We conclude with examples of relevant dissemination choices made using this process.     

Geochemistry and Rb–Sr geochronology of a ductile shear zone in the Orlica-Śnieżnik dome (West Sudetes, Poland)

Amphibolite-facies orthogneisses of the Orlica-vnie™nik dome in the West Sudetes (Poland) show a local continuous transition from weakly deformed augen gneisses to finely laminated mylonites. Field evidence indicates that ductile shearing developed pre- or syntectonically to a migmatization event. Bulk-rock compositions of variably deformed samples yield no indications for deformation- and/or fluid-enhanced element mobility and redistribution. ⁸⁷Rb-⁸⁶Sr geochronology (biotite, phengite, whole rock) places time constraints on the deformation process and the post-orogenic cooling history. Phengite- and biotite-whole-rock pairs yield Rb-Sr ages of 340 to 334 Ma and 335 to 294 Ma, respectively, independent of the degree of deformation. The weighted mean of phengite-whole-rock pairs indicates an age of 337.4DŽ.3 Ma. Combining most of the biotite-whole-rock data yields a weighted mean age of 328.6dž.4 Ma. Because of their different closure temperatures for the Rb-Sr system, these differences are interpreted to date cooling after a thermal event. Direct dating of the deformation is not possible, but the cooling history record defines a minimum age for the development of ductile shearing and the last migmatization event. These time constraints provide evidence for the initiation of crustal collapse during or immediately following peak metamorphic conditions. The results of this study further document the importance of Variscan metamorphism in the Orlica-vnie™nik dome.     

Post-mid-Cretaceous eastern North Sea evolution inferred from 3D thermo-mechanical modelling

The Late Cretaceous–Cenozoic evolution of the eastern North Sea region is investigated by 3D thermo-mechanical modelling. The model quantifies the integrated effects on basin evolution of large-scale lithospheric processes, rheology, strength heterogeneities, tectonics, eustasy, sedimentation and erosion.

The evolution of the area is influenced by a number of factors: (1) thermal subsidence centred in the central North Sea providing accommodation space for thick sediment deposits; (2) 250-m eustatic fall from the Late Cretaceous to present, which causes exhumation of the North Sea Basin margins; (3) varying sediment supply; (4) isostatic adjustments following erosion and sedimentation; (5) Late Cretaceous–early Cenozoic Alpine compressional phases causing tectonic inversion of the Sorgenfrei–Tornquist Zone (STZ) and other weak zones.

The stress field and the lateral variations in lithospheric strength control lithospheric deformation under compression. The lithosphere is relatively weak in areas where Moho is deep and the upper mantle warm and weak. In these areas the lithosphere is thickened during compression producing surface uplift and erosion (e.g., at the Ringkøbing–Fyn High and in the southern part of Sweden). Observed late Cretaceous–early Cenozoic shallow water depths at the Ringkøbing–Fyn High as well as Cenozoic surface uplift in southern Sweden (the South Swedish Dome (SSD)) are explained by this mechanism.

The STZ is a prominent crustal structural weakness zone. Under compression, this zone is inverted and its surface uplifted and eroded. Contemporaneously, marginal depositional troughs develop. Post-compressional relaxation causes a regional uplift of this zone.

The model predicts sediment distributions and paleo-water depths in accordance with observations. Sediment truncation and exhumation at the North Sea Basin margins are explained by fall in global sea level, isostatic adjustments to exhumation, and uplift of the inverted STZ. This underlines the importance of the mechanisms dealt with in this paper for the evolution of intra-cratonic sedimentary basins.     

Kinetics of Mn(II) oxidation by Leptothrix discophora SS1

The kinetics of Mn(II) oxidation by the bacterium Leptothrix discophora SS1 was investigated in this research. Cells were grown in a minimal mineral salts medium in which chemical speciation was well defined. Mn(II) oxidation was observed in a bioreactor under controlled conditions with pH, O₂, and temperature regulation. Mn(II) oxidation experiments were performed at cell concentrations between 24 mg/L and 35 mg/L, over a pH range from 6 to 8.5, between temperatures of 10°C and 40°C, over a dissolved oxygen range of 0 to 8.05 mg/L, and with L. discophora SS1 cells that were grown in the presence of Cu concentrations ranging from zero to 0.1 μM. Mn(II) oxidation rates were determined when the cultures grew to stationary phase and were found to be directly proportional to O₂ and cell concentrations over the ranges investigated. The optimum pH for Mn(II) oxidation was approximately 7.5, and the optimum temperature was 30°C. A Cu level as low as 0.02 μM was found to inhibit the growth rate and yield of L. discophora SS1 observed in shake flasks, while Cu levels between 0.02 and 0.1 μM stimulated the Mn(II) oxidation rate observed in bioreactors. An overall rate law for Mn(II) oxidation by L. discophora as a function of pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen concentration (D.O.), and Cu concentration is proposed. At circumneutral pH, the rate of biologically mediated Mn(II) oxidation is likely to exceed homogeneous abiotic Mn(II) oxidation at relatively low (≈μg/L) concentrations of Mn oxidizing bacteria.     

Phytoplankton, nutrients, and transparency in Danish coastal waters

We present a comparative analysis of 1400 data series of water chemistry (particularly nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations), phytoplankton biomass as chlorophylla (chla) concentrations, concentrations of suspended matter and Secchi depth transparency collected from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s from 162 stations in 27 Danish fjords and coastal waters. The results demonstrate that Danish coastal waters were heavily eutrophied and had high particle concentrations and turbid waters. Median values were 5.1 μg chla 1⁻¹, 10.0 mg DW 1⁻¹ of suspended particles, and Secchi depth of 3.6 m. Chlorophyll concentration was strongly linked to the total-nitrogen concentration. The strength of this relationship increased from spring to summer as the concentration of total nitrogen declined. During summer, total nitrogen concentrations accounted for about 60% of the variability in chlorophyll concentrations among the different coastal systems. The relationship between chlorophyll and total phosphorus was more consistant over the year and correlations were much weaker than encountered for total nitrogen. Secchi depth could be predicted with good precision from measurements of chlorophyll and suspended matter. In a multiple stepwise regression model with In-transformed values the two variables accounted for most of the variability in water transparency for the different seasons and the period March–October as a whole (c. 80%). We were able to demonstrate a significant relationship between total nitrogen and Secchi depth, with important implications for management purposes.     

Integrated Two-Dimensional Modeling of Fluid Flow and Compaction in a Sedimentary Basin

In this paper we employ mixed finite elements and numerically study an integrated two-dimensional model of fluid flow and compaction in a sedimentary basin. This model describes a single phase incompressible flow in a two-dimensional section of a sedimentary basin with vertical compaction. At each time step, an iterative algorithm is used to solve this model. The determination of the grid movement is based on the mass conservation and movement of sediments in the basin, while the mixed method is utilized to solve the fluid flow over the moving grid. Numerical experiments are presented to verify this iterative algorithm and show representative solutions for the model under consideration.     

Probing mid-mantle heterogeneity using PKP coda waves

We investigate the utility of PKP coda waves for studying weak scattering from small-scale heterogeneity in the mid-mantle. Coda waves are potentially a useful probe of heterogeneity in the mid-mantle because they are not preferentially scattered near the CMB, as PKP precursors are, but are sensitive to scattering at all depths. PKP coda waves have not been used for this purpose historically because of interference with other late-arriving energy due to near-surface resonance and scattering. Any study of deep mantle scattering using coda waves requires the removal of near-surface effects from the data. We have analyzed 3624 recordings of PKP precursors and coda made by stations in the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) Global Seismographic Network (GSN). To study the range and time dependence of the scattered waves, we binned and stacked envelopes of the recordings. We have considered precursors that arrive within a 20 s window before PKP and coda waves in a 60 s window after PKP. The PKP scattered waves increase in amplitude rapidly with range as predicted by scattering theory. At ranges below 125°, we predict and observe essentially no scattered energy preceding PKP. Coda amplitudes at these ranges are independent of range and provide an estimate of energy due to near-surface effects that we can expect at all ranges. We use the average coda amplitude at ranges from 120 to 125° to correct coda amplitudes at other ranges. PKP coda waves show a strong dependence on time and range and are clearly influenced by scattering in the lower mantle. PKP coda waves, however, do not provide a tighter constraint on the vertical distribution of mantle heterogeneity than is provided by precursors. This is due, in part, to relatively large scatter in coda amplitudes as revealed by a resampling analysis. Modeling using Rayleigh–Born scattering theory and an exponential autocorrelation function shows that PKP coda amplitudes are not highly sensitive to the vertical distribution of heterogeneity in the mantle. To illustrate this we consider single-scattering in two extreme models of mantle heterogeneity. One allows heterogeneity just at the CMB; the other includes heterogeneity throughout the mantle. The amplitudes of precursors are tightly constrained by our stack and support our earlier conclusion that small-scale heterogeneity is uniformly distributed throughout the lower mantle. The best-fit model includes 8 km scale length heterogeneity with an rms velocity contrast throughout the mantle of 1%.