Numerical simulation and evaluation of the fracturing and tight gas production with a new dimensionless fracture conductivity (FCD) model

Hydraulic fracturing is an essential technology for the development of unconventional resources such as tight gas. The evaluation of the fracture performance and productivity is important for the design of fracturing operations. However, the traditional dimensionless fracture conductivity is too simple to be applied in real fracturing operations. In this work, we proposed a new model of dimensionless fracture conductivity (F_CD), which considers the irregular fracture geometry, proppant position and concentration. It was based on the numerical study of the multistage hydraulic fracturing and production in a tight gas horizontal well of the North German Basin. A self-developed full 3D hydraulic fracturing model, FLAC3D^plus, was combined with a sensitive/reliability analysis and robust design optimization tool optiSLang and reservoir simulator TMVOCMP to achieve an automatic history matching as well as simulation of the gas production. With this tool chain, the four fracturing stages were history matched. The simulation results show that all four fractures have different geometry and proppant distribution, which is mainly due to different stress states and injection schedule. The position and concentration of the proppant play important roles for the later production, which is not considered in the traditional dimensionless fracture conductivity F_CD. In comparison, the newly proposed formulation of F_CD could predict the productivity more accurately and is better for the posttreatment evaluation.

     

Transforming local natural resource conflicts to cooperation in a changing climate: Bangladesh and Nepal lessons

ABSTRACT

Since the 1990s, climate change impact discourse has highlighted potential for large scale violent conflicts. However, the role of climate stresses on local conflicts over natural resources, the role of policies and adaptation in these conflicts, and opportunities to enhance cooperation have been neglected. These gaps are addressed in this paper using evidence from participatory action research on 79 cases of local collective action over natural resources that experience conflicts in Bangladesh and Nepal. Climate trends and stresses contributed to just under half of these conflict cases. Nine factors that enable greater cooperation and transformation of conflict are identified. Participatory dialogue and negotiation processes, while not sufficient, changed understanding, attitudes and positions of actors. Many of the communities innovated physical measures to overcome natural resource constraints, underlying conflict, and/or institutional reforms. These changes were informed by improving understanding of resource limitations and indigenous knowledge. Learning networks among community organizations encouraged collective action by sharing successes and creating peer pressure. Incentives for cooperation were important. For example, when community organizations formally permitted excluded traditional resource users to access resources, those actors complied with rules and paid towards management costs. However, elites were able to use policy gaps to capture resources with changed characteristics due to climate change. In most of the cases where conflict persisted, power, policy and institutional barriers prevented community-based organizations from taking up potential adaptations and innovations. Policy frameworks recognizing collective action and supporting flexible innovation in governance and adaptation would enable wider transformation of natural resource conflicts into cooperation.

Key policy insights

• Climate stresses, policy gaps and interventions can all worsen local natural resource conflicts.

• Sectoral knowledge and technical approaches to adaptation are open to elite capture and can foster conflicts.

• Many local natural resource conflicts can be resolved but this requires an enabling environment for participatory dialogue, external facilitation, flexible responses to context, and recognition of disadvantaged stakeholder interests.

• Transforming conflict to greater cooperation mostly involves social and institutional changes, so adaptation policies should focus less on physical works and more on enabling factors such as negotiation, local institutions, knowledge, and incentives.

     

High-frequency climate oscillations drive ice-off variability for Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers

Climatic Change - This study examines the climatic drivers of ice-off dates for lakes and rivers across the Northern Hemisphere. Most lakes and rivers have trended toward earlier ice-off dates over...     

Bed material texture in low order streams on the Queen Charlotte Islands,British Columbia

Low order channels comprise a large proportion of the links of every drainage basin, and are often at the centre of land management concerns. They exhibit hydrological and geomorphological characteristics atypical of higher order links. This paper examines the nature and causes of variations in the bed material texture of two streams on the Queen Charlotte Islands, British Columbia. The extant, functional exponential model is found to be inadequate for explaining observed changes in grain size parameters with distance downstream. Recurrent disruption of sediment transport by large organic debris jams, and the sporadic contamination of the fluvial sediment population by colluvial inputs, preclude the development of longitudinal structure. Rather, grain size varies erratically over short distances. A stochastic model best describes the observed variations, and should be adopted as an alternative to the exponential model in low order links. Characteristic variances are controlled by the degree of hillslope-channel coupling, and the extent and characteristics of non-alluvial storage mechanisms.     

Adding the missing third and fourth dimensions to trajectory analysis in carbonate systems

We developed a seismic geomorphology-based procedure to enhance traditional trajectory analysis with the ability to visualize and quantify lateral variability along carbonate prograding-margin types (ramps and rimmed shelves) in 3D and 4D. This quantitative approach analysed the shelf break geometric evolution of the Oligo-Miocene carbonate clinoform system in the Browse Basin and delineated the feedback between antecedent topography and carbonate system response as controlling factor on shelf break rugosity. Our geometrical analysis identified a systematic shift in the large-scale average shelf break strike direction over a transect of 10 km from 62° to 55° in the Oligo-Miocene interval of the Browse Basin, which is likely controlled by far-field allogenic forcing from the Timor Trough collision zone. Plotting of 3D shelf break trajectories represents a convenient way to visualize the lateral variability in shelf break evolution. Shelf break trajectories that indicate contemporaneous along-strike progradation and retrogradation correlate with phases of autogenic slope system re-organization and may be a proxy for morphological stability of the shelf break. Shelf break rugosity and shelf break trajectory rugosity are not inherited parameters and antecedent topography does not dictate long-term differential movement of the shelf margin through successive depositional sequences. The autogenic carbonate system response to antecedent topography smooths high-rugosity areas by filling accommodation and maintains a relatively constant shelf break rugosity of ~150 m. Color-coding of the vertical component in the shelf break trajectory captures the creation and filling of accommodation, and highlights areas of the transect that are likely to yield inconsistent 2D sequence stratigraphic interpretations.     

Flexural deformation controls on Late Quaternary sediment dispersal in the Garo-Rajmahal Gap,NW Bengal Basin

Subsurface deformation is a driver for river path selection when deformation rates become comparable to the autogenic mobility rate of rivers. Here we combine geomorphology, soil and sediment facies analyses, and geophysical data of the Late Quaternary sediments of the central Garo-Rajmahal Gap in Northwest Bengal to link subsurface deformation with surface processes. We show variable sedimentation characteristics, from slow rates (<0.8 mm/year) in the Tista megafan at the foot of the Himalaya to nondeposition at the exposed surface of the Barind Tract to the south, enabling the development of mature soils. Combined subsidence in the Tista fan and uplift of the Barind Tract are consistent with a N-S flexural response of the Indian plate to loading of the Himalaya Mountains given a low value of elastic thickness (15–25 km). Provenance analysis based on bulk strontium concentration suggests a dispersal of sediment consistent with this flexural deformation—in particular the abandonment of the Barind Tract by a Pleistocene Brahmaputra River and the current extents of the Tista megafan lobes. Overall, these results highlight the control by deeply rooted deformation patterns on the routing of sediment by large rivers in foreland settings.     

AMS 14C age constraints on geoglyphs in the lower colorado river region,arizona and california

Giant ground figures are widespread in the lower Colorado River area of southwestern North America, yet their chronology has remained unconstrained by numerical ages. Thirteen AMS ¹⁴C measurements reported here indicate that geoglyphs were made from before ˜A. D. 1200 to before ˜900 B. C. We account for potential contamination from prior organics in weathering rinds. All other potential errors point to ¹⁴C dates being minimum-limiting ages for the manufacturing of geoglyphs. Although these ages indicate considerable chronological complexity among geoglyphs, our data are consistent with the linguistic hypothesis that the Yuman people in the desert of southeastern California migrated from Baja California—rather than from the north. These results must, however, be placed under the cloud of uncertainty that hangs over the entire field of AMS dating of rock art: the untested assumption surrounding contemporeneity of organics in a surface context. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Prehistoric soil and water detention structures (gabarbands) at Phang,Sindh Kohistan,Pakistan: An adaptation to environmental change?

Five gabarbands (dams), components of integrated soil and water conservation systems, were investigated in the arid region of Sindh Kohistan. The dams are associated with two prehistoric Kot Dijian settlements, Phang and Kohtrash (3200–2800 B. C.). The dams were constructed with relatively permeable materials. Three of the dams, South, East, and North, close off water gaps and a strike valley, respectively, to form a detention basin. The West Dam, located on Phang Nai, upstream of the detention basin removed the coarser sediment fraction from the flows. Spring Dam, located in a water gap to the north of the detention basin, acted as a low-head weir to distribute flow from a perennial spring onto the floodplain of Baran Nai, where double-cropping was probably practiced. Faulting eliminated the spring, which had probably supported the Kohtrash site, and led to construction of the detection basin for the purposes of subsurface storage of detained flows. Association of both modern and prehistoric sites with springs suggests that there has not been appreciable climate change in Sindh Kohistan in the last 5000 years. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.