Beyond headline mitigation numbers: we need more transparent and comparable NDCs to achieve the Paris Agreement on climate change

Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) were key to reaching the Paris Agreement and will be instrumental in implementing it. Research was quick to identify the ‘headline numbers’ of NDCs: if these climate action plans were fully implemented, global mean warming by 2100 would be reduced from approximately 3.6 to 2.7°C above pre-industrial levels (Höhne et al. Climate Pol 17:1–17, 2016; Rogelj et al. Nature 534:631–639, 2016). However, beyond these headline mitigation numbers, NDCs are more difficult to analyse and compare. UN climate negotiations have so far provided limited guidance on NDC formulation, which has resulted in varying scopes and contents of NDCs, often lacking details concerning ambitions. If NDCs are to become the long-term instrument for international cooperation, negotiation, and ratcheting up of ambitions to address climate change, then they need to become more transparent and comparable, both with respect to mitigation goals, and to issues such as adaptation, finance, and the way in which NDCs are aligned with national policies. Our analysis of INDCs and NDCs (Once a party ratifies the Paris Agreement, it is invited to turn its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) into an NDC. We refer to results from our INDC analysis rather than our NDC analysis in this commentary unless otherwise stated.) shows that they omit important mitigation sectors, do not adequately provide details on costs and financing of implementation, and are poorly designed to meet assessment and review needs.     

Two magma series and associated ore deposit types in the Permian Emeishan large igneous province, SW China

The Late Middle Permian ( 260 Ma) Emeishan large igneous province in SW China contains two magmatic series, one comprising high-Ti basalts and Fe-rich gabbroic and syenitic intrusions, the other low-Ti basalts and mafic–ultramafic intrusions. The Fe-rich gabbros are spatially and temporally associated with syenites. Each series is associated with a distinctive type of mineralization, the first with giant Fe–Ti–V oxide ore deposits such as Panzhihua and Baima, the second with Ni–Cu–(PGE) sulfide deposits such as Jinbaoshan, Limahe and Zhubu. New SHRIMP zircon U–Pb isotopic data yielded 263 ± 3 Ma for the Limahe intrusion, 261 ± 2 Ma for the Zhubu intrusion and 262 ± 2 Ma for a syenitic intrusion. These new age dates, together with previously reported SHRIMP zircon U–Pb ages, suggest that all these intrusions are contemporaneous with the Emeishan flood basalts and formed during a major igneous event at ca. 260 Ma.The oxide-bearing intrusions have higher Al₂O₃, FeO (as total iron) and total alkalis (Na₂O + K₂O) but lower MgO than the sulfide-bearing intrusions. All intrusions are variably enriched in LREE relative to HREE. The oxide-bearing intrusions display positive Nb- and Ti-anomalies and in certain cases negative Zr–Hf anomalies, whereas the sulfide-bearing intrusions have obvious negative Nb- and Ti-anomalies, a feature of crustal contamination. Individual intrusions have relatively small ranges of Nd(t) values. All the intrusions, however, have Nd(t) values ranging from − 3.9 to + 4.6, and initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios from 0.7039 to 0.7105. The syenites have very low MgO (< 2 wt.%) but highly variable Fe₂O₃ (2.5 to 13 wt.%) with initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios ranging from 0.7039 to 0.7089. Magmas from both series could have derived by melting of a heterogeneous mantle plume: the high-Ti series from a Fe-rich, more fertile source and the low-Ti series from a Fe-poor, more refractory source. In addition, the low-Ti series underwent significant crustal contamination. The two magma series evolved along different paths that led to distinct mineralization styles.     

Land surface hydrology in a General Circulation Model N-global and regional fields needed for validation

Treatments of land surface processes in General Circulation Models are presently limited by the realism of the simulations of precipitation and surface radiation. We explore this thesis by examination of some of the climatological fields of a 6-year model simulation, using the Community Climate Model version 1 of the National Center for Atmospheric Research with addition of a diurnal cycle and coupled to a detailed treatment of land surface processes referred to as the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme. We examine July climatological surface fields over North America and note an excess of surface solar radiation over Eastern United States. Comparison with satellite derived cloud forcing suggests that the model underestimates the reduction of solar radiation by clouds over Eastern United States and in high latitudes, and so probably largely explaining the excess surface radiation. We consider the annual cycle of model hydrological fields (soil moisture, runoff, precipitation, evapotranspiration, net radiation) averaged over a box covering the central part of the United States (roughtly the Mississippi basin). The seasonal cycle of evapotranspiration over this box appears to be dominated by the variation of surface solar radiation and less related to that of precipitation.     

Crustal neon: a striking uniformity

By combining data from a diverse suite of crustal fluid samples representing a broad geographical distribution, we have identified a well-defined nucleogenic (crustal) neon component. The neon is produced from (α, n) and (n, α) nuclear interactions involving nuclei of O, Mg, and F [1]. In the limiting case of ²⁰Ne/²²Ne = 0, the composition is: ²¹Ne/²²Ne = 0.47 ± 0.01 and ²¹Ne/⁴He = (0.46 ± 0.08) × 10⁻⁷. A crustal O/F ratio of 110 (atomic) calculated from the ²¹Ne/²²Ne ratio is 4–10 times less than the average crustal O/F ratio. The discrepancy can be accounted for by an enhanced O/F ratio within the 10–40 μm range of the U-Th-generated α-particles.     

Geochemistry of reduced gas related to serpentinization of the Zambales ophiolite, Philippines

Methane-hydrogen gas seeps with mantle-like C and noble gas isotopic characteristics issue from partially serpentinized ultramafic rocks in the Zambales ophiolite, Philippines. New measurements of noble gas and ¹⁴C isotope abundances, rock/mixed-volatile equilibrium calculations, and previous chemical and isotopic data suggest that these reduced gases are products of periodotite hydration. The gas seeps are produced in rock-dominated zones of serpentinization, and similar gases may be ubiquitous in ultramafic terranes undergoing serpentinization.     

Dual multiparameter radar observations of intense convective storms: The 24 June 1992 case study

Summary Data from two multiparameter radars are used to diagnose some microphysical characteristics of intense convective storms, in particular, the 24 June 1992 case near Fort Collins and Greeley, Colorado. Dual-polarization and dual-frequency radar measurements from the CSU-CHILL and NCAR/CP-2 radars provided the basis for microphysical interpretations. Supporting in-situ measurements were provided by several T-28 aircraft penetrations of updraft regions.Limited dual-Doppler synthesis as well as surface mesoscale features showed persistent regions of convergence and advection of moist air along the northeast side of the storm complex. The Fort Collins storm was analyzed in detail over its duration including an intercomparison of rainfall rates from raingage and as deduced from specific differential phase and attenuation measurements. Vertical sections of radar data taken parallel and perpendicular to the surface convergence axis showed interesting features such as positiveZ _dr and attenuation columns with an LDR cap on the inflow side. Such columns provide evidence of the important role of warm cloud processes in this storm. NCAR/CP-2 radar data from a multi-cellular storm in central Florida are also analyzed as a contrast to the 24 June Colorado case.With 23 Figures     

Extreme <Superscript>15</Superscript>N Depletion in Seagrasses

Seagrass beds form an important part of the coastal ecosystem in many parts of the world but are very sensitive to anthropogenic nutrient increases. In the last decades, stable isotopes have been used as tracers of anthropogenic nutrient sources and to distinguish these impacts from natural environmental change, as well as in the identification of food sources in isotopic food web reconstruction. Thus, it is important to establish the extent of natural variations on the stable isotope composition of seagrass, validating their ability to act as both tracers of nutrients and food sources. Around the world, depending on the seagrass species and ecosystem, values of seagrass N normally vary from 0 to 8?‰ δ¹⁵N. In this study, highly unusual seagrass N isotope values were observed on the east coast of Qatar, with significant spatial variation over a scale of a few metres, and with δ¹⁵N values ranging from +2.95 to ?12.39?‰ within a single bay during March 2012. This pattern of variation was consistent over a period of a year although there was a seasonal effect on the seagrass δ¹⁵N values. Seagrass, water column and sediment nutrient profiles were not correlated with seagrass δ¹⁵N values and neither were longer-term indicators of nutrient limitation such as seagrass biomass and height. Sediment δ¹⁵N values were correlated with Halodule uninervis δ¹⁵N values and this, together with the small spatial scale of variation, suggest that localised sediment processes may be responsible for the extreme isotopic values. Consistent differences in sediment to plant ¹⁵N discrimination between seagrass species also suggest that species-specific nutrient uptake mechanisms contribute to the observed δ¹⁵N values. This study reports some of the most extreme, negative δ¹⁵N values ever noted for seagrass (as low as ?12.4?‰) and some of the most highly spatially variable (values varied over 15.4?‰ in a relatively small area of only 655 ha). These results are widely relevant, as they demonstrate the need for adequate spatial and temporal sampling when working with N stable isotopes to identify food sources in food web studies or as tracers of anthropogenic nutrients.     

Do perceptions of the Red‐tailed Hawk indicate a human‐wildlife conflict on the island of La Gonave,Haiti?

The Caribbean subspecies of the Red‐tailed Hawk (Buteo jamaicensis solitudinus or B.j. jamaicensis) is the largest native carnivore on the island of La Gonave, Haiti, and the island's apex predator. On other Caribbean islands, raptors have been persecuted by local people typically because of their depredation of livestock. In addition to possible persecution from humans, Red‐tailed Hawks on La Gonave face challenges from island‐wide timber overharvest and rapid land‐cover changes. To better understand the human‐apex predator relationship on La Gonave, we surveyed islanders about their perceptions of, and interactions with, the Red‐tailed Hawk. According to 121 respondents from 10 villages, La Gonavans do not hunt, kill, or consume Red‐tailed Hawks. Our study revealed a notable absence of negative perceptions of the hawk by respondents despite intense hawk depredation of domestic chickens. While the chicken depredation may lead outside observers to consider the human‐hawk relationship on La Gonave as representative of a human‐wildlife conflict, our interview data do not support that conception. Our findings reflect an important conversation in related contemporary scientific literature about what constitutes human‐wildlife conflicts across various cultures. Despite tolerance by residents, Red‐tailed Hawks on La Gonave remain threatened by habitat degradation.