Knowledge gaps in our perceptual model of Great Britain's hydrology

There is a no lack of significant open questions in the field of hydrology. How will hydrological connectivity between freshwater bodies be altered by future human alterations to the hydrological cycle? Where does water go when it rains? Or what is the future space–time variability of flood and drought events? However, the answers to these questions will vary with location due to the specific and often poorly understood local boundary conditions and system properties that control the functional behaviour of a catchment or any other hydrologic control volume. We suggest that an open, shared and evolving perceptual model of a region's hydrology is critical to tailor our science questions, as it would be for any other study domain from the plot to the continental scale. In this opinion piece, we begin to discuss the elements of and point out some knowledge gaps in the perceptual model of the terrestrial water cycle of Great Britain. We discuss six major knowledge gaps and propose four key ways to reduce them. While the specific knowledge gaps in our perceptual model do not necessarily transfer to other places, we believe that the development of such perceptual models should be at the core of the debate for all hydrologic communities, and we encourage others to have a similar debate for their hydrologic domain.     

The effects of ditch dams on water-level dynamics in tropical peatlands

A significant proportion of tropical peatlands has been drained for agricultural purposes, resulting in severe degradation. Hydrological restoration, which usually involves blocking ditches, is therefore a priority. Nevertheless, the influence of ditch blocking on tropical peatland hydrological functioning is still poorly understood. We studied water-level dynamics using a combination of automated and manual dipwells, and also meteorological data during dry and wet seasons over 6 months at three locations in Sebangau National Park, Kalimantan, Indonesia. The locations were a forested peatland (Forested), a drained peatland with ditch dams (Blocked), and a drained peatland without ditch dams (Drained). In the dry season, water tables at all sites were deeper than the Indonesian regulatory requirement of 40 cm from the peat surface. In the dry season, the ditches were dry and water did not flow to them. The dry season water-table drawdown rates — solely due to evapotranspiration — were 9.3 mm day⁻¹ at Forested, 9.6 mm day⁻¹ at Blocked, but 12.7 mm day⁻¹ at Drained. In the wet season, the proportion of time during which water tables in the wells were deeper than the 40 cm limit ranged between 16% and 87% at Forested, 0% at Blocked, and between 0% and 38% at Drained. In the wet season, water flowed from the peatland to ditches at Blocked and Drained. The interquartile range of hydraulic gradients between the lowest ditch outlet and the farthest well from ditches at Blocked was 3.7 × 10⁻⁴ to 7.8 × 10⁻⁴ m m⁻¹, but 1.9 × 10⁻³ to 2.6 × 10⁻³ m m⁻¹ at Drained. Given the results from Forested, a water-table depth limit policy based on field data may be required, to reflect natural seasonal dynamics in tropical peatlands. Revised spatial designs of dams or bunds are also required, to ensure effective water-table management as part of tropical peatland restoration.     

A Bayesian palaeoenvironmental transfer function model for acidified lakes

A Bayesian approach to palaeoecological environmental reconstruction deriving from the unimodal responses generally exhibited by organisms to an environmental gradient is described. The approach uses Bayesian model selection to calculate a collection of probability-weighted, species-specific response curves (SRCs) for each taxon within a training set, with an explicit treatment for zero abundances. These SRCs are used to reconstruct the environmental variable from sub-fossilised assemblages. The approach enables a substantial increase in computational efficiency (several orders of magnitude) over existing Bayesian methodologies. The model is developed from the Surface Water Acidification Programme (SWAP) training set and is demonstrated to exhibit comparable predictive power to existing Weighted Averaging and Maximum Likelihood methodologies, though with improvements in bias; the additional explanatory power of the Bayesian approach lies in an explicit calculation of uncertainty for each individual reconstruction. The model is applied to reconstruct the Holocene acidification history of the Round Loch of Glenhead, including a reconstruction of recent recovery derived from sediment trap data. The Bayesian reconstructions display similar trends to conventional (Weighted Averaging Partial Least Squares) reconstructions but provide a better reconstruction of extreme pH and are more sensitive to small changes in diatom assemblages. The validity of the posteriors as an apparently meaningful representation of assemblage-specific uncertainty and the high computational efficiency of the approach open up the possibility of highly constrained multiproxy reconstructions.     

Topographic controls upon soil macropore flow

Macropores are important components of soil hydrology. The spatial distribution of macropore flow as a proportion of saturated hydraulic conductivity was tested on six humid–temperate slopes using transects of tension infiltrometer measurements. Automated water table and overland flow monitoring allowed the timing of, and differentiation between, saturation‐excess overland flow and infiltration‐excess overland flow occurrence on the slopes to be determined and related to tension‐infiltrometer measurements. Two slopes were covered with blanket peat, two with stagnohumic gleys and two with brown earth soils. None of the slopes had been disturbed by agricultural activity within the last 20 years. This controlled the potential for tillage impacts on macropores. The proportion of near‐surface macropore flow to saturated hydraulic conductivity was found to vary according to slope position. The spatial patterns were not the same for all hillslopes. On the four non‐peat slopes there was a relationship between locations of overland flow occurrence and reduced macroporosity. This relationship did not exist for the peat slopes investigated because they experienced overland flow across their whole slope surfaces. Nevertheless, they still had a distinctive spatial pattern of macropore flow according to slope position. For the other soils tested, parts of slopes that were susceptible to saturation‐excess overland flow (e.g. hilltoes or flat hilltops) tended to have least macropore flow. To a lesser extent, for the parts of slopes susceptible to infiltration‐excess overland flow, the proportion of macropore flow as a component of infiltration was also smaller compared with the rest of the slope. The roles of macropore creation and macropore infilling by sheet wash are discussed, and it is noted that the combination of these may result in distinctive topographically controlled spatial patterns of macropore flow. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

PESERA‐PEAT: a fluvial erosion model for blanket peatlands

In peatlands, fluvial erosion can lead to a dramatic decline in hydrological function, major changes in the net carbon balance and loss of biodiversity. Climate and land management change are thought to be important influences on rates of peat erosion. However, sediment production in peatlands is different to that of other soils and no models of erosion specifically for peatlands currently exist. Hence, forecasting the influence of future climate or spatially‐distributed management interventions on peat erosion is difficult. The PESERA‐GRID model was substantially modified in this study to include dominant blanket peat erosion processes. In the resulting fluvial erosion model, PESERA‐PEAT, freeze–thaw and desiccation processes were accounted for by a novel sediment supply index as key features of erosion. Land management practices were parameterized for their influence on vegetation cover, biomass and soil moisture condition. PESERA‐PEAT was numerically evaluated using available field data from four blanket peat‐covered catchments with different erosion conditions and management intensity. PESERA‐PEAT was found to be robust in modelling fluvial erosion in blanket peat. A sensitivity analysis of PESERA‐PEAT showed that modelled sediment yield was more sensitive to vegetation cover than other tested factors such as precipitation, temperature, drainage density and ditch/gully depth. Two versions of PESERA‐PEAT, equilibrium and time‐series, produced similar results under the same environmental conditions, facilitating the use of the model at different scales. The equilibrium model is suitable for assessing the high‐resolution spatial variability of average monthly peat erosion over the study period across large areas (national or global assessments), while the time‐series model is appropriate for investigating continuous monthly peat erosion throughout study periods across smaller areas or large regions using a coarser‐spatial resolution. PESERA‐PEAT will therefore support future investigations into the impact of climate change and management options on blanket peat erosion at various spatial and temporal scales. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Incorporating conceptual and interpretation uncertainty to mineral prospectivity modelling

Prospectivity analyses are used to reduce the exploration search space for locating areas prospective for mineral deposits.The scale of a study and the type of mineral system associated with the deposit control the evidence layers used as proxies that represent critical ore genesis processes.In particular,knowledge-driven approaches(fuzzy logic)use a conceptual mineral systems model from which data proxies represent the critical components.These typically vary based on the scale of study and the type of mineral system being predicted.Prospectivity analyses utilising interpreted data to represent proxies for a mineral system model inherit the subjectivity of the interpretations and the uncertainties of the evidence layers used in the model.In the case study presented,the prospectivity for remobilised nickel sulphide(NiS)in the west Kimberley,Western Australia,is assessed with two novel techniques that objectively grade interpretations and accommodate alternative mineralisation scenarios.Exploration targets are then identified and supplied with a robustness assessment that reflects the variability of prospectivity value for each location when all models are considered.The first technique grades the strength of structural interpretations on an individual line-segment basis.Gradings are obtained from an objective measure of feature evidence,which is the quantification of specific patterns in geophysical data that are considered to reveal underlying structure.Individual structures are weighted in the prospectivity model with grading values correlated to their feature evidence.This technique allows interpreted features to contribute prospectivity proportional to their strength in feature evidence and indicates the level of associated stochastic uncertainty.The second technique aims to embrace the systemic uncertainty of modelling complex mineral systems.In this approach,multiple prospectivity maps are each generated with different combinations of confidence values applied to evidence layers to represent the diversity of processes potentially leading to ore deposition.With a suite of prospectivity maps,the most robust exploration targets are the locations with the highest prospectivity values showing the smallest range amongst the model suite.This new technique offers an approach that reveals to the modeller a range of alternative mineralisation scenarios while employing a sensible mineral systems model,robust modelling of prospectivity and significantly reducing the exploration search space for Ni.     

The chronology and long term dynamics of a low energy river system: the Kelvin Valley,central Scotland

The long term (Holocene) channel and floodplain dynamics of a low gradient, low energy, fine grained aggradational fluvial system within a formerly glaciated landscape in central Scotland, the Kelvin Valley, are described from a series of sediment stratigraphic transects and 12 ¹⁴C assays in a headwater reach between Kirkintilloch and Kilsyth. The ¹⁴C assays and dated archaeological sites on the floodplain together suggest that the River Kelvin ceased to aggrade more than 2000 years ago, probably much more, so the 4–6 m of channel and floodplain deposits are almost entirely of early to mid‐Holocene age. The Kelvin Valley is characterized, despite its low flow characteristics, by a highly variable floodplain architecture, in which some transects suggest long term channel stability and strong partitioning of floodplain sedimentation and others indicate high channel mobility. This variation makes the application of general models of fluvial evolution difficult. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tethered Balloon Observations Of The Nocturnal Stable Boundary Layer In A Valley

Detailed measurements of profiles of mean and turbulent variablesthrough the nocturnal stable boundary layer over a valley arepresented. Two nights of data are analysed in detail, one with only aweakly stable boundary layer and one with a strongly stable boundarylayer. The weakly stratified night shows high levels of turbulence inwhich the flow remains attached to the valley and the boundary layeracts as a single coherent layer. On the strongly stratified night, twoflow regimes are identified: attached flow, as on the weaklystratified night, and decoupled flow in which the air in the valleybecomes so dynamically stable that there is no turbulent interactionwith the mean flow aloft. Because the valley is sloping, the decoupledlower stagnant air then forms a drainage current. We find that theFroude number evaluated at the hill height, F_H = U(H)/N(H) H,diagnoses the flow regime: when F_H = 2, the flow remainsattached and when F_H 2 the flow in the valley becomesdecoupled from the flow aloft. The dynamics of the flow regimes areshown to be understandable in terms of the gradient Richardson number,which indicates the turbulent mixing. We show that the gradientRichardson number is a key parameter in diagnosing each flow regime.     

Ti-in-zircon thermometry applied to contrasting Archean metamorphic and igneous systems

Ti-in-zircon thermometry with SHRIMP II multi-collector has been applied to two well-documented Archean igneous and metamorphic samples from southern West Greenland. Zircons from 2.71 Ga partial melt segregation G03/38 formed in a small (< 1 m³), closed system within a mafic rock under high pressure granulite facies conditions. Results of 14 Ti analyses present a mean apparent zircon crystallization temperature of 679 ± 11 °C, underestimating independent garnet-clinopyroxene thermometry by 20–50 °C but consistent with reduced a_TiO2 in this system. 36 spot analysis on 15 zircons from 3.81 Ga meta-tonalite G97/18, with an estimated magmatic temperature > 1000 °C, yield a low-temperature focused normal distribution with a mean of 683 ± 32 °C, further demonstrated by high resolution Ti mapping of two individual grains. This distribution is interpreted to represent the temperature of the residual magma at zircon saturation, late in the crystallization history of the tonalite. Hypothetically, Ti-in-zircon thermometry on Eoarchaean detrital zircons sourced from such a high temperature tonalite would present a low-temperature biased image of the host magma, which could be misconstrued as being a minimum melt granite. Multiple analyses from individual zircons can yield complex Ti distributions and associated apparent temperature patterns, reflecting cooling history and local chemical environments in large magma chambers. In addition to inclusions and crystal imperfections, which can yield apparent high temperature anomalies, zircon surfaces can also record extreme (> 1000 °C) apparent Ti temperatures. In our studies these were traced to ⁴⁹Ti (or a molecular isobaric interference) contamination derived from the double sided adhesive tape used in sample preparation, and should not be assigned geological significance.     

Fire decreases near‐surface hydraulic conductivity and macropore flow in blanket peat

Many peatlands have been subjected to wildfire or prescribed burning, but it is not known how these fires influence near‐surface hydrological processes. Macropores are important flowpaths in the upper layers of blanket peat and were investigated through the use of tension disc infiltrometers, which also provide data on saturated hydraulic conductivity. Measurements were performed on unburnt peat (U), where prescribed burning had taken place 2 years (B2), 4 years (B4) and >15 (B15+) years prior to sampling, and where a wildfire (W) had taken place 4 months prior to sampling. Where there had been recent burning (B2, B4 and W), saturated hydraulic conductivity was approximately three times lower than where there was no burning (U) or where burning was last conducted >15 years ago (B15+). Similarly, the contribution of macropore flow to overall infiltration was significantly lower (between 12% and 25% less) in the recently burnt treatments compared to B15+ and U. There were no significant differences in saturated hydraulic conductivity or macropore flow between peat that had been subject to recent wildfire (W) and those that had undergone recent prescribed burning (B2 and B4). The results suggest that fire influences the near‐surface hydrological functioning of peatlands but that recovery in terms of saturated hydraulic conductivity and macropore flow may be possible within two decades if there are no further fires. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.