An Assessment of Flood Forecasting in Bangladesh: The Experience of the 1998 Flood

Floods are among the most costly natural disasters interms of human sufferings and economic losses inBangladesh. Approximately 20% of the countryexperiences normal annual flooding while all thehistorical catastrophic floods inundated more thanfifty percent of the country's total area. The recentflood in 1998 has been found to be more severe thanall previous floods. During the flooding season of1998, the Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC)of the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB)prepared daily flood bulletin and incorporatedinformation about rainfall, rise/fall of riverwater, flood forecasting for 24 and 48 hr inadvance and warning messages (if any). The FFWCattempted to provide adequate services to the localand national level decision-making process. Theforecasting procedure adapted by the FFWC was based onhydrological information, forecaster's experience, andmodel simulation. This paper primarily examines therole and activities of the FFWC, especially in floodforecasting and warning. Identification of the causesand consequences of 1998 flood is the other pertinentarea of discussion of the paper.Findings of this research revealed that the flood of1998 was caused by heavy downpour in the upstream thatwas drained out through the major rivers inBangladesh. Three major rivers' peak was synchronizedand characterized it as the most prolonged flood inthe history of Bangladesh. It also revealed that,despite various limitations, the flood forecasts ofthe FFWC were reasonably adequate to meet nationaldemand during the crises of 1998.     

Hydrogeochemical evaluation and statistical analysis of groundwater of Sylhet,north-eastern Bangladesh

To investigate the hydrogeochemical characteristics of groundwater 23 shallow, 30 intermediate and 38 deep wells samples were collected from Sylhet district of Bangladesh, and analyzed for temperature, pH, Eh, EC,DO, DOC, Na^+, K^+, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Cl^-, SO_4^2-, NO_3^-,HCO_3^-, SiO_2^-, Fe, Mn and As. Besides, 12 surface water samples from Surma and Kushiyara Rivers were also collected and analyzed to understand the influence into aquifers. Results revealed that, most of the groundwater samples are acidic in nature, and Na–HCO_3 is the dominant groundwater type. The mean value of temperature, EC,Na^+, K^+, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Cl^-, NO_3^- and SO_4^2- were found within the range of permissible limits, while most of the samples exceeds the allowable limits of Fe, Mn and As concentrations. However, relatively higher concentration of Fe and Mn were found in deep water samples and reverse trend was found in case of As. The mean concentrations of As in shallow, intermediate and deep wells were 39.3, 25.3and 21.4 lg/L respectively, which varied from 0.03 to148 lg/L. From spatial distribution, it was found that Fe,Mn and As concentrations are high but patchy in northern,north-western, and south-western part of Sylhet region. The most influential geochemical process in study area were identified as silicate weathering, characterized by active cation exchange process and carbonate weathering, which thereby can enhance the elemental concentrations in groundwater. Pearson's correlation matrix, principal component analysis and cluster analysis were also employed to evaluate the controlling factors, and it was found that, both natural and anthropogenic sources were influencing the groundwater chemistry of the aquifers. However, surface water has no significant role to contaminate the aquifers,rather geogenic factors affecting the trace elemental contamination. Thus it is expected that, outcomes of this study will provide useful insights for future groundwater monitoring and management of the study area.     

ENSO and seasonal sea-level variability – A diagnostic discussion for the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands

Summary The El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle is the basis for this paper, aimed at providing a diagnostic outlook on seasonal sea-level variability (i.e. anomalies with respect to the Climatology) for the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI). Results revealed that the sea-level variations in the northwestern tropical Pacific islands (e.g. Guam and Marshall Islands) have been found to be sensitive to ENSO-cycle, with low sea-level during El Ni?o and high sea-level during La Ni?a events. The annual cycle (first harmonic) of sea-level variability in these north Pacific islands has also been found to be very strong. The composites of SST and circulation diagnostic show that strong El Ni?o years feature stronger surface westerly winds in the equatorial western/central Pacific, which causes north Pacific islands to experience lower sea-level from July to December, while the sea-level in south Pacific islands (e.g. American Samoa) remains unchanged. As the season advances, the band of westerly winds propagates towards the south central tropical Pacific and moves eastward, which causes American Samoa to experience a lower sea-level from January to June, but with six months time lag as compared to Guam and the Marshalls. U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands are among the most vulnerable communities to climate variability and change. This study has identified the year-to-year ENSO climate cycle to have significant impact on the sea-level variability of these islands. Therefore, regular monitoring of the ENSO climate cycle features that affect seasonal sea-level variability would provide substantial opportunities to develop advance planning and decision options regarding hazard management in these islands.     

Co-metabolic decolorization of a textile reactive dye by <Emphasis Type="Italic">Aspergillus fumigatus</Emphasis>

In the present study, a widely used reactive dye, Color Index (C.I.) Reactive Blue 268 was utilized for mycoremediation by Aspergillus fumigatus isolated from textile effluent. Complete decolorization of the test dye (0.1 g L^?1) was recorded within 6 days of static incubation at 27 °C in Czapek Dox broth (CDB). However, the isolate was unable to utilize the dye as a sole source of energy in Czapek Dox agar and CDB in absence of sucrose and obligate requirement of a labile carbon source, i.e., sucrose needed for induction of decolorization. Biosorption seems to play the pivotal role in decolorization as evident by coloring of the fungal biomass as that of dye color. The optimal conditions for the highest decolorization were found at 30 °C and pH 6.0 with 6-day-old inoculums supplemented with sucrose (10 g L^?1) and ammonium chloride (2 g L^?1) as a carbon and nitrogen source, respectively. The response of the isolate to increasing dye concentrations was found to be growth inhibitory. Surprisingly, about 65 % of dye decolorization was recorded with heat-inactivated biomass powder within 6 days of static incubation supporting the fact of fungal biosorption. Results of this study have established the candidature of the isolate for biotechnological removal of dyes from disreputable dying effluents.     

Numerical storm surge model with higher order finite difference method of lines for the coast of Bangladesh

In this study, the method of lines (MOLs) with higher order central difference approximation method coupled with the classical fourth order Runge-Kutta (RK(4,4)) method is used in solving shallow water equations (SWEs) in Cartesian coordinates to foresee water levels associated with a storm accurately along the coast of Bangladesh. In doing so, the partial derivatives of the SWEs with respect to the space variables were discretized with 5-point central difference, as a test case, to obtain a system of ordinary differential equations with time as an independent variable for every spatial grid point, which with initial conditions were solved by the RK(4,4) method. The complex land-sea interface and bottom topographic details were incorporated closely using nested schemes. The coastal and island boundaries were rectangularized through proper stair step representation, and the storing positions of the scalar and momentum variables were specified according to the rules of structured C-grid. A stable tidal regime was made over the model domain considering the effect of the major tidal constituent, M₂ along the southern open boundary of the outermost parent scheme. The Meghna River fresh water discharge was taken into account for the inner most child scheme. To take into account the dynamic interaction of tide and surge, the generated tidal regime was introduced as the initial state of the sea, and the surge was then made to come over it through computer simulation. Numerical experiments were performed with the cyclone April 1991 to simulate water levels due to tide, surge, and their interaction at different stations along the coast of Bangladesh. Our computed results were found to compare reasonable well with the limited observed data obtained from Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority (BIWTA) and were found to be better in comparison with the results obtained through the regular finite difference method and the 3-point central difference MOLs coupled with the RK(4,4) method with regard to the root mean square error values.     

Anisotropy in volume change behaviour of soils during shrinkage

It has been long recognised that some of the fundamental and engineering properties of soils exhibit a certain degree of anisotropy that eventually dictates their directional geoengineering behaviours. Consideration of the importance of the volume change behaviour of soils during shrinkage and a critical review of the literature suggests scopes for further research for the development of a better understanding of the anisotropy in volume change encountered during soil shrinkage. In this paper, anisotropy in volumetric shrinkage behaviour of soil is depicted with the theory of geometry factor and shrinkage strains. A systematic investigation and analysis on the evolution of geometry factors and shrinkage strains of several geomaterial samples during evaporative dewatering is reported herein. A theoretical framework for evaluating shrinkage geometry factors of a cylindrical soil specimen undergoing volume change during progressive moisture loss is described in this paper. Furthermore, based on experimental and literature data, shrinkage geometry factors of several specimens differing in terms of gradational properties, specimen size, evaporative boundary condition and pore fluid salinity are evaluated and discussed in detail in accordance with the theoretical framework. Linkages between shrinkage process, shrinkages strains and geometry factor are also analysed to underpin the usage of geometry factor and shrinkage strains to characterise anisotropy during soil shrinkage.

     

Paleoproterozoic granitoids in the basement of Bangladesh: A piece of the Indian shield or an exotic fragment of the Gondwana jigsaw?

We present the first precise age for Precambrian basement rocks in Bangladesh. These lie within the Dinajpur block, located between the Indian Craton to the southwest and the Shillong Massif to the east. There are no surface outcrops and the rocks were intersected by drill holes. They consist of a suite of tonalitic and granodioritic rocks, variously deformed to granitic gneiss and intruded by younger monzogranite. A tonalite obtained at a depth of 227.48 m in drill hole BH-2 at Maddhapara, in northwestern Bangladesh, records a SHRIMP zircon ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb magmatic age of 1722 ± 6 Ma. Paleoproterozoic rocks with similar magmatic ages are unknown in the adjacent Indian blocks of the Chotanagpur Plateau (Indian Craton) or Shillong Massif. This lack of comparable ages may be due to the paucity of precise radiometric ages from the Indian terrains or, more likely, because there are real age differences, with the buried rocks at Maddhapara representing a separate and discrete microcontinental fragment (the Dinajpur block) that was trapped by the northward migration of India during Gondwana dispersal.     

Dynamics of land use/cover changes and the analysis of landscape fragmentation in Dhaka Metropolitan, Bangladesh

Rapid urban expansion due to large scale land use/cover change, particularly in developing countries becomes a matter of concern since urbanization drives environmental change at multiple scales. Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, has been experienced break-neck urban growth in the last few decades that resulted many adverse impacts on the environment. This paper was an attempt to document spatio-temporal pattern of land use/cover changes, and to quantify the landscape structures in Dhaka Metropolitan of Bangladesh. Using multi-temporal remotely sensed data with GIS, dynamics of land use/cover changes was evaluated and a transition matrix was computed to understand the rate and pattern of land use/cover change. Derived land use statistics subsequently integrated with landscape metrics to determine the impact of land use change on landscape fragmentation. Significant changes in land use/cover were noticed in Dhaka over the study period, 1975–2005. Rapid urbanization was manifested by a large reduction of agricultural land since urban built-up area increased from 5,500?ha in 1975 to 20,549?ha in 2005. At the same time, cultivated land decreased from 12,040 to 6,236?ha in the same period. Likewise, wetland and vegetation cover reduced to about 6,027 and 2,812?ha, respectively. Consequently, sharp changes in landscape pattern and composition were observed. The landscape became highly fragmented as a result of rapid increase in the built-up areas. The analysis revealed that mean patch size decreased while the number of patches increased. Landscape diversity declined, urban dominance amplified, and the overall landscape mosaics became more continuous, homogenous and clumped. In order to devise sustainable land use planning and to determine future landscape changes for sound resource management strategies, the present study is expected to have significant implications in rapidly urbanizing cities of the world in delivering baseline information about long term land use change and its impact on landscape structure.