Free allocation in the 3rd EU ETS period: assessing two manufacturing sectors

This article provides an analysis of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and the harmonized benchmark-based allocation procedures by comparing two energy-intensive sectors with activities in three Member States. These sectors include the cement industry (CEI) and the pulp and paper industry (PPI) in the UK, Sweden, and France. Our results show that the new procedures are better suited for the more homogeneous CEI, in which the outcome of stricter allocation of emissions allowances is consistent between Member States. For the more heterogeneous PPI – in terms of its product portfolios, technical infrastructures, and fuel mixes – the allocation procedures lead to diverse outcomes. It is the lack of product benchmark curves, and the alternative use of benchmark values that are biased towards a fossil fuel-mix and are based on specific energy use rather than emission intensity, which leads to allocations to the PPI that do not represent the average performance of the top 10% of GHG-efficient installations. Another matter is that grandfathering is still present via the historically based production volumes. How to deal with structural change and provisions regarding capacity reductions and partial cessation is an issue that is highly relevant for the PPI but less so for the CEI.

Policy relevance

After an unprecedented amount of consultation with industrial associations and other stakeholders, a harmonized benchmark-based allocation methodology was introduced in the third trading period of the EU ETS. Establishing a reliable and robust benchmark methodology for free allocation that shields against high direct carbon costs, is perceived as fair and politically acceptable, and still incentivizes firms to take action, is a significant challenge. This article contributes to a deeper understanding of the challenges in effectively applying harmonized rules in industrial sectors that are heterogeneous. This is essential for the debate on structural reformation of the EU ETS, and for sharing experiences with other emerging emissions trading systems in the world that also consider benchmark methodologies.     

Seismic quiescence before the M 7, 1988, Spitak earthquake, Armenia

A detailed analysis of the 35  yr of seismicity between 1962 and 1997 using a gridding technique shows that the M 7, Spitak earthquake of 1988 December 7 was preceded by a quiescence anomaly that started at approximately 1984±0.5, and lasted about 5±0.5  yr, up to the main shock. This quiescence anomaly had a radius of about 20±3  km, estimated from circular areas with 75 per cent rate decrease, centred at the point of maximum significance of the anomaly. The quiescence was clearly present in the aftershock volume during the 5  yr before the 1988 main shock, but its statistically strongest expression was located 30  km NW of the epicentre. This anomaly fulfills the association rules between precursory quiescence anomalies and main shocks, even for a tight definition, and is therefore proposed as a case of precursory quiescence. The largest value of the standard deviate Z , found by random selection of samples by gridding, was Z =14 for a time window of T _w=3  yr, using a sample size of N =300 events. This makes this anomaly the strongest observed so far, and it is the first documented in an environment of continental collision. There are no false alarms exceeding in significance the precursor. The Armenian earthquake catalogue used for this study had 4600 earthquakes with M ≥ M _min=2.2 in the area bounded by 39.5° to 42°N/42.5° to 47°E. From the point of view of homogeneous reporting this is the best catalogue we have analysed so far. The limits of the data used and the density of the grid are dictated by the data, and have no influence on the results. The choice of free parameters does not influence the results significantly within the following limits: 100≤ N ≤500, 2≤ T _w≤7, 2.2≤ M _min≤2.8.     

Configuring high frequency radar observations in the Southern Chukchi Sea

In recent years, monitoring offshore surface circulation in the Arctic Ocean with high frequency radars has become an issue of increasing practical importance. In this study, radar positions are optimized by minimizing the reconstruction errors of the surface currents in the Southeastern Chukchi Sea. By means of an adjoint sensitivity technique it is shown that in the case of a pair of radars, their optimal (i.e. most favorable) location is at Kivalina, a settlement near the strongest outflow of the Alaskan Coastal Current from the monitored domain. The least favorable location is at Shishmaref, a settlement near relatively weak inflow into the region as observed from the coast. However, if two pairs of radars are available, the best locations are Kivalina and Shishmaref. The results are verified using observational system simulation experiments (OSSEs) performed in the framework of a 4-dimensional variational assimilation of simulated radar observations into a numerical model. It is shown that correct specification of the first guess solution is of primary importance for obtaining realistic results from both adjoint sensitivity analysis and OSSEs. This emphasizes the necessity of obtaining accurate high resolution climatologies for future ice-free offshore regions in the Arctic.     

Political Alienation,Rurality and the Symbolic Role of Swedish Wolf Policy

Attitudes towards wolf policy are likely to be driven by perceived differences in political power between urban and rural groups. Using Swedish survey data collected in 2014 and structural equation modeling, I evaluated the effects of political alienation. Political alienation mediated the effect of having an urban or rural place of residence on attitudes towards wolf policy. Politically alienated individuals also preferred more extreme policy options than other respondents, while being less likely to approve of the current wolf policy in Sweden. These findings suggest that political alienation drives attitude polarization in wolf related social conflicts. Awareness of these underlying power asymmetries could possibly increase both policy legitimacy and management efficiency. This highlights the importance of accounting for social context in relation to policy-making and conservation efforts related to wolves.     

The isotopic composition of strontium and oxygen in lavas from St. Helena,South Atlantic

Strontium and oxygen isotope measurements on the alkali basalt-trachyte-phonolite suite of St. Helena show that some of the late-fractionated rocks are enriched in ⁸⁷Sr and depleted in ¹⁸O relative to the older basalts. The data rule out both the formation of the late-fractionated rocks by the partial melting of hydrothermally altered oceanic crust and the contamination of the volcanic rocks by oceanic sediment. It also appears to be incompatible with models based either on the melting of previously fractionated and crystallized liquids in the volcanic pile, or the long-term fractionation of lavas over several millions of years in a sub-volcanic magma chamber.It is concluded that hydrothermal interaction with meteoric water is the most important cause of the ¹⁸O depletion. If the interaction occurred at widely differing temperatures, and involved meteoric and seawaters, it might conceivably have caused both the oxygen and strontium isotope heterogeneities.     

Field calibration of a formula for entrance mixing of river inflows to lakes: Lake Taupo,North Island,New Zealand

Field measurements were used to validate predictions for the initial dilution of negatively buoyant, cold‐water inflows to Lake Taupo, as part of a study to quantify mixing processes associated with the two largest inflows to the lake. The predictions were made using a formulation originally derived for positively buoyant, warm‐water inflows to cooling ponds. The formulation predicts the total dilution of an inflow during its inertia‐dominated phase between its entrance to the lake and the point where buoyancy forces are great enough to cause the inflow to plunge and form a submerged density current. In one of the measured inflows, the inflowing jet was free to entrain from both sides; in the other, entrainment was restricted on one side by attachment of the inflowing jet to the shoreline of a bay just upstream of the plunge point. In the former example, the unmodified coefficients from the cooling pond formulation provided an excellent prediction of initial dilution. In the latter example, entrainment was reduced and different coefficients were derived. In both examples the inflows remained attached to the lake bed throughout their course until their liftoff at depths of 45–55 m to form interflows. The difference between coefficients for the two inflows indicates that the coefficient values should be considered site‐specific. The formulation is not valid for inflows that separate from the bottom of the inflow channel before plunging. The entrance mixing formulation was incorporated in a more general model of lake stratification, DYRESM, which already includes a well‐documented routine for routing underflows down submerged channels on the bed of a lake. Application of the model to the inflows measured in Lake Taupo gave good results for two model outputs that were not involved in the calibration of the entrance mixing formulation, but that are affected by the result of the initial dilution calculation—the temperatures in the river plume after it has plunged, and the insertion depth.     

Carbon and hydrogen isotopic compositions of the NBS 22 and NBS 21 stable isotope reference materials: An inter-laboratory comparison

Measurement of 17 laboratories on the stable isotope reference materials, NBS 22 lubricating oil and NBS 21 graphite, resulted in a revised calibration on the PDB scale. NBS 22 ¹³C/¹²C ratios of all laboratories did not demonstrate a gausssian distribution. Therefore, values which resulted from direct comparison with NBS 20 carbonate standards were selected the mean value of which is $\text{?29.81 ± 0.06?}$; this value is recommended as new value for NBS 22. The reported variations in δ¹³C for NBS 21 were consistent within the accuracies for single meaurements; the mean value is ?28.16 ± 0.01. The variations of D/H ratios of NBS 22 also were consistent with the accuracy quoted, with a mean value of ?119?.