WUIVAC: a wildland-urban interface evacuation trigger model applied in strategic wildfire scenarios

An evacuation trigger is a point on the landscape that, once crossed by a wildfire, triggers an evacuation for a community. The Wildland-Urban Interface Evacuation (WUIVAC) model can be used to create evacuation trigger buffers around a community using fuels, weather, and topographic inputs. A strategic, community-scale application of WUIVAC for the town of Julian, California was investigated. Eight years of wind measurements were used to determine the worst-case (strongest) winds in 16 directions. Surface fire rate of spread was used to calculate evacuation trigger buffers for the communities of Julian and nearby Whispering Pines, and for three potential evacuation routes. Multiple trigger buffers were combined to create fire planning areas, and trigger buffers that predict the closure of all evacuation routes were explored. WUIVAC trigger buffers offer several potential benefits for strategic evacuation planning, including determination of when to evacuate and locating potential evacuation routes.     

Human Losses Expected in Himalayan Earthquakes

Quantitative estimates of potential losses that may be caused by future great earthquakes along the Himalaya suggest that as many as 150,000 people may die, 300,000 may be injured and typically 3,000 settlements will be affected in a single event. Scenario results used here vary and are based on ruptures of 150 km segments of the plate boundary at seven positions, where sufficient elastic energy is believed to be stored for magnitude eight earthquakes. The method of calculating these results was calibrated, using the 17 disastrous Indian earthquakes, which have occurred since 1980. About 50 settlements in the region are considered most at risk because in each more than 2000 fatalities may occur.     

On the origin of spicules in the chromosphere-corona transition region

Qualitative arguments are presented to show that in the chromosphere-corona transition region the energy which is transported downwards by heat conduction cannot be disposed of by radiative losses only. The region therefore is unstable and forced to be in motion, which may give rise to spicule-like phenomena.On leave from the Observatory Sonnenborgh at Utrecht, The Netherlands.     

Interaction between the interstellar medium and solar wind plasma

The interaction processes governing the penetration of the interstellar gas into the solar neighbourhood are re-examined — as well as photo-ionization and charge-exchange processes, proton elastic collisions and electron ionizations help reduce the nearby gas densities. The total destruction rate varies little during the solar cycle, by perhaps 10%. Particle heating, particularly via the elastic collisions, determines the gas characteristics in the gravitationally focussed tail—enhanced H-density is prevented, while the He-tail is effectively hotter than 10³ K.Termination of the solar wind is rediscussed in the light of both electron heating and the stronger gas/plasma interaction. The spiral interplanetary field is taken to break up and the subsonic plasma flow to be controlled by the pressure of slowly cooling electrons. The terminating collisionless shock is then, if it exists at all, very weak (M ₁<1.4), subcritical, and energetically unimportant. Cosmic rays are little affected by this sonic transition, but at least the electron component should be modulated by plasma turbulence throughout the ionizing flow.

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Les cumulus dans les Alpes valaisannes

Résumé Les cumulus de beau temps et les cumulonibus locaux ont leur base comprise entre 1500 et 4500 m. dans les Alpes valaisannes (Suisse); l'altitude moyenne s'établit à 3160 m. Variation diurne et saisonnière du niveau de condensation et spectre de fréquence.

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Summary In the Alps of the Valais (Switzerland) the base of the height of the fine weather cumuli and of the cumulo-nimbi of local character is situated between 1500 and 4500 m. above sea level; the average height is 3160 m. The diurnal and the annual variation of the condensation height and the frequency distribution are discussed.

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Zusammenfassung Die Basishöhe der Schönwettercumuli und der Cumulonimben lokalen Charakters liegt in den Walliser Alpen (Schweiz) zwischen 1500 und 4500 m über Meer; die mittlere Höhe beträgt 3160 m. Es werden die Tages- und die Jahresschwankung der Kondensationshöhe und Frequenzverteilung untersucht.

     

Water and the density of silicate glasses

A review of published and newly measured densities for 40 hydrous silicate glasses indicates that the room-temperature partial molar volume of water is 12.0 ± 0.5 cm³/mol. This value holds for simple or mineral compositions as well as for complex natural glasses, from rhyolite to tephrite compositions, prepared up to 10–20 kbar pressures and containing up to 7 wt% H₂O. This volume does not vary either with the molar volume of the water-free silicate phase, with its degree of polymerization or with water speciation. Over a wide range of compositions, this constant value implies that the volume change for the reaction between hydroxyl ions and molecular water is zero and that, at least in glasses, speciation does not depend on pressure. Consistent with data from Ochs and Lange (1997, 1999), systematics in volume expansion for SiO₂–M₂O systems (M=H, Li, Na, K) suggests that the partial molar thermal expansion coefficient of H₂O is about 4 × 10⁻⁵ K⁻¹ in silicate glasses. Received: 30 June 1999 / Accepted: 5 November 1999     

The 10Be deglaciation chronology of the Göschenertal,central Swiss Alps,and new insights into the Göschenen Cold Phases

The Göschenertal (Göschenen valley) is the type locality of the so‐called Göschenen Cold Phases I (~3–2.3 ka) and II (~1.8–1.1 ka). According to earlier studies, these Late Holocene climatic cooling periods were characterized by changes in vegetation and pronounced glacier advances. As a peculiarity, the Göschenen Cold Phase I was thought to be connected to a local surge‐type advance of the Chelengletscher (Chelen glacier) – an exceptional event of unparalleled dimension in the European Alps. Based on cosmogenic ¹⁰Be exposure ages from moraine boulders, we investigated the local glacier chronology. In contrast to former research, moraines at different positions within the Göschenen valley (central Swiss Alps) have been dated to the Younger Dryas and the Early Holocene. This questions the applicability of palaeo‐Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) calculations for stadial attributions without additional numerical age constraints. Furthermore, we have found compelling evidence that the proposed non‐climatic glacier advance attributed to the Göschenen Cold Phase I did not occur. The present results, along with a reappraisal of the original study, question the scientific reliability and the glaciological definition of the Göschenen Cold Phases as glacier advances that clearly exceeded the Little Ice Age positions. While our data do not exclude potential changes in climate and vegetation, we nonetheless show that the Göschenen Cold Phases are not suitable as reference stadials in the system of Alpine Holocene glacier fluctuations.     

Decadal prediction skill in the GEOS-5 forecast system

A suite of decadal predictions has been conducted with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s (GMAO’s) GEOS-5 Atmosphere–Ocean general circulation model. The hind casts are initialized every December 1st from 1959 to 2010, following the CMIP5 experimental protocol for decadal predictions. The initial conditions are from a multi-variate ensemble optimal interpolation ocean and sea-ice reanalysis, and from GMAO’s atmospheric reanalysis, the modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications. The mean forecast skill of a three-member-ensemble is compared to that of an experiment without initialization but also forced with observed greenhouse gases. The results show that initialization increases the forecast skill of North Atlantic sea surface temperature compared to the uninitialized runs, with the increase in skill maintained for almost a decade over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic. On the other hand, the initialization reduces the skill in predicting the warming trend over some regions outside the Atlantic. The annual-mean atlantic meridional overturning circulation index, which is defined here as the maximum of the zonally-integrated overturning stream function at mid-latitude, is predictable up to a 4-year lead time, consistent with the predictable signal in upper ocean heat content over the North Atlantic. While the 6- to 9-year forecast skill measured by mean squared skill score shows 50 % improvement in the upper ocean heat content over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic, prediction skill is relatively low in the subpolar gyre. This low skill is due in part to features in the spatial pattern of the dominant simulated decadal mode in upper ocean heat content over this region that differ from observations. An analysis of the large-scale temperature budget shows that this is the result of a model bias, implying that realistic simulation of the climatological fields is crucial for skillful decadal forecasts.