Applying neighbourhood classification systems to natural hazards: a case study of Mt Vesuvius

Mt Vesuvius is regarded as one of the most deadly volcanoes on earth. With over 1 million people living on its flanks and in its periphery, there is little doubt that an eruption of sub-Plinian magnitude would be catastrophic to the livelihood and well being of contemporary Neopolitans. Such a large scale eruption would have wide ranging and differential effects on the surrounding population. Whereas previous studies of social vulnerability have focused on individual demographic factors (such as age, income or ethnicity), this research proposes the application of a general neighbourhood classification system to assess natural hazard vulnerability. In this study, Experian’s Mosaic Italy is used to classify and delineate the most vulnerable neighbourhood types around the province of Naples. Among the neighbourhoods considered most at risk, those areas with high proportions of elderly and low income families are deemed particularly vulnerable. With current evacuation plans deemed outdated and poorly communicated to the locals Rolandi (2010), Barberi et al. (2008), this methodology could prove to be a useful input to both town planners and civil protection agencies. A range of statistical measures and geophysical risk boundaries are employed here to assess the different areas of human resilience.     

A BPR approach to hydrogeological risk management

Every year, landslides and floods cause deaths, missing persons, injured people, evacuees, and homeless people. Serious damages to property and pollution are also produced. Lessons learn from landslides and flood disasters recently occurred show that flood and disaster management should be widely improved. This paper deals the problem of hydrogeological risk management from a logistic and a managerial point of view. The hydrological risk management is studied as an industrial process, and it is modeled by the IDEF0 language. The IDEF0 application provides a clear overview of the system and became a structured base for the re-engineering process. For each function of the process, the inputs, outputs, and necessary controls and resources have been identified. The use of the IDEF0 provides a simple and effective tool for the decision-making process. Starting from a realistic and efficient current state model, the process of re-engineering has been implemented. The main aim of the change introduced in the process is to improve the information management that it is a crucial point of the risk management.     

Probabilistic GIS-based method for delineation of urban flooding risk hotspots

Identifying urban flooding risk hotspots is one of the first steps in an integrated methodology for urban flood risk assessment and mitigation. This work employs three GIS-based frameworks for identifying urban flooding risk hotspots for residential buildings and urban corridors. This is done by overlaying a map of potentially flood-prone areas [estimated through the topographic wetness index (TWI)], a map of residential areas and urban corridors [extracted from a city-wide assessment of urban morphology types (UMT)], and a geo-spatial census dataset. A maximum likelihood method (MLE) is employed for estimating the threshold used for identifying the flood-prone areas (the TWI threshold) based on the inundation profiles calculated for various return periods within a given spatial window. Furthermore, Bayesian parameter estimation is employed in order to estimate the TWI threshold based on inundation profiles calculated for more than one spatial window. For different statistics of the TWI threshold (e.g. MLE estimate, 16th percentile, 50th percentile), the map of the potentially flood-prone areas is overlaid with the map of urban morphology units, identified as residential and urban corridors, in order to delineate the urban hotspots for both UMT. Moreover, information related to population density is integrated by overlaying geo-spatial census datasets in order to estimate the number of people affected by flooding. Differences in exposure characteristics have been assessed for a range of different residential types. As a demonstration, urban flooding risk hotspots are delineated for different percentiles of the TWI value for the city of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.     

Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement is the last hope to keep global temperature rise below 2°C. The consensus agrees to holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim for 1.5°C. Each Party’s successive nationally determined contribution (NDC) will represent a progression beyond the party’s then current NDC, and reflect its highest possible ambition. Using Ireland as a test case, we show that increased mitigation ambition is required to meet the Paris Agreement goals in contrast to current EU policy goals of an 80–95% reduction by 2050. For the 1.5°C consistent carbon budgets, the technically feasible scenarios' abatement costs rise to greater than €8,100/tCO₂ by 2050. The greatest economic impact is in the short term. Annual GDP growth rates in the period to 2020 reduce from 4% to 2.2% in the 1.5°C scenario. While aiming for net zero emissions beyond 2050, investment decisions in the next 5–10 years are critical to prevent carbon lock-in.

Key policy insights

• Economic growth can be maintained in Ireland while rapidly decarbonizing the energy system.

• The social cost of carbon needs to be included as standard in valuation of infrastructure investment planning, both by government finance departments and private investors.

• Technological feasibility is not the limiting factor in achieving rapid deep decarbonization.

• Immediate increased decarbonization ambition over the next 3–5 years is critical to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, acknowledging the current 80–95% reduction target is not consistent with temperature goals of ‘well below’ 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C.

• Applying carbon budgets to the energy system results in non-linear CO₂ emissions reductions over time, which contrast with current EU policy targets, and the implied optimal climate policy and mitigation investment strategy.

     

The effect of the Fernando de Noronha plume on the mantle lithosphere in north-eastern Brazil

New xenolith occurrences in the Cenozoic alkali basalts of north-eastern Brazil have been studied in order to constrain the possible imprint on the continental mantle lithosphere of its passage over the Fernando de Noronha plume and the regional mantle processes. Texturally, the lherzolite and harzburgite xenoliths define three groups: group 1, porphyroclastic; group 2, protogranular; group 3, transitional between groups 1 and 2. Equilibrium temperatures are highest for group 1 and lowest for group 2. Clinopyroxenes from group 1 peridotites have Primitive Mantle (PM)-normalised REE patterns varying from L-MREE-enriched convex-upward, typical of phases in equilibrium with alkaline melts, to LREE-enriched, spoon-shaped, to LREE-enriched, steadily fractionated in a wehrlite. Group 2 clinopyroxenes show patterns slightly depleted in LREE to nearly flat. The M-HREE are at 3–5 ×PM concentration level, as typical in fertile lithospheric lherzolites. Most of group 3 clinopyroxenes show LREE-depleted patterns similar to the group 2 ones, but in two samples the clinopyroxenes are characterised by LREE-enriched, spoon-shaped profiles. Sr and Nd isotopes of the group 1 clinopyroxenes form an array between DM and EMI-like components, both of them are also present in the host basalts. Melts estimated to be in equilibrium with the group 1 clinopyroxenes having L-MREE-enriched, convex-upward patterns are similar to the Cenozoic alkaline magmas. The groups 2 and 3 clinopyroxenes define two distinct compositional fields at higher ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd values, correlated with their LREE composition. The isotopes of the groups 2 and 3 LREE-depleted clinopyroxenes form an array from DM towards the isotopic composition of Mesozoic tholeiitic basalts from north-eastern Brazil. Melts in equilibrium with these clinopyroxenes are similar to these basalts, thus suggesting that such xenoliths record geochemical imprint from older melt-related processes.

The LREE-enriched spoon-shaped group 3 clinopyroxenes are characterised by the highest ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd values at any given ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr composition. These results are interpreted in terms of a lithospheric mantle section which underwent thermo-chemical and mechanical erosion by infiltration of asthenospheric alkali basalts having EMI-like isotope characteristics during Cenozoic time. At that time, the lithospheric mantle consisted of fertile lherzolites and harzburgites recording the geochemical imprint of Mesozoic mantle processes. The onset of the interaction between lithospheric peridotites and alkaline melts was characterised by the porous flow percolation of small melt volumes that induced chromatographic enrichments in highly incompatible elements and the isotope signature of the spoon-shaped, group 3 clinopyroxenes. Group 1 peridotites represent the base of the lithospheric column eroded by the ascending alkaline melts, whereas the group 2 documents the shallower lithospheric section, with group 3 being the transition. The similarity of processes and isotope components in the protogranular xenoliths from Fernando de Noronha area and north-eastern Brazil supports the hypothesis that the lithosphere beneath Fernando de Noronha is a detached portion of the continental one. Furthermore, the similarity in terms of textural and geochemical features documented by the mantle samples coming from the two different regions seems to confirm the interference of the two regions with the same plume.