Statistical analysis of the largest possible earthquake magnitudes on the Ecuadorian coast for selected return periods

ABSTRACT

In this work, we have studied the largest earthquake magnitudes on the Ecuadorian coast by using the principles of Extreme Value Analysis based on its two approaches: Block Maxima and Peaks-over-Threshold. First, before modelling the recorded earthquakes, the K-means clustering technique was applied to determine a classification according to the level of magnitude of the earthquakes. Then, models based on the Extreme Value theory of earthquake magnitudes were developed for each of the four clusters that were found, and finally, the best-fitted models were those known as Fréchet and Gumbel ones. The zone with the greatest earthquake magnitudes on the Ecuadorian coast is located between the north of the province of Manabí and the south of the province of Esmeraldas, with a return period of 50 years for an earthquake with magnitude greater than 7.7 M_W.     

Quantum theory of line formation in a magnetic field

The transfer equations for the Stokes parameters in the presence of magnetic field and under the hypothesis of LTE are derived in an original way by the use of density matrix techniques.The results are substantially the same as those previously obtained by other authors. We finally compare our results to the previous ones in order to clarify some discrepancies still present in the literature.     

Shallow structure of the Somma–Vesuvius volcano from 3D inversion of gravity data

A gravity investigation was carried out in the Somma–Vesuvius complex area (Campania, Italy) based on a dataset recently enlarged with new measurements. These cover the volcanic top and fill some other important spatial gaps in previous surveys. Besides the new gravity map of the Vesuvius, we also present the results of a 3D inverse modelling, carried out by using constraints from deep well exploration and seismic reflection surveys. The resulting density model provides a complete reconstruction of the top of the carbonate basement. This is relevant mostly on the western side of the survey area, where no significant information was previously available. Other new information regards the Somma–Vesuvius structure. It consists of an annular volume of rocks around the volcanic vent and that extends down to the carbonate basement. It results to be denser with respect to the surrounding sedimentary cover of the Campanian Plain and to the material located just along the central axis of the volcanic structure. The coherence between these features and other geophysical evidences from previous studies, will be discussed together with the other results of this research.     

The Sponge Community of a Semi-Submerged Mediterranean Cave

Abstract. The sponge fauna of a semi-submerged cave from the Tremiti Archipelago (Adriatic Sea) was studied, and its distribution was analyzed in relation to abiotic (water-movement and light gradients) and biotic (algae and anthozoan substrate cover) ecological factors. Fifty-five species of sponges were recorded. The number of species and the abundance values of sponges increase in the first part of the cave, then progressively decrease, with a sharp fall at the end of the cave. The quick disappearance of algae along the light gradient allows sponges to thrive in the first portion of the cave. The subsequent, progressive decrement of sponges could be the result of food depletion phenomena due to a long persistence of the water body in this long cavity. A high water-turbulence, due to the peculiar morphology of the cave and indicated by the recorded values of water-movement, occurs at the end of the cavity and probably determines the sharp decrement of sponges in the inner portion of the cave. This turbulence may also explain the absence of typical still-water cave species and probably affects the type of development (shape, overgrowth) of the sponges in the community.     

Frequency of debris flows and their relation with precipitation: A case study in the Central Alps, Italy

Debris flows are very important and widespread mass movements, and represent a remarkable geomorphological hazard. This research deals with debris flows in an alpine environment, studied using dendrogeomorphological dating techniques, outlining their relation with precipitation, and analysing possible changes in their frequency and intensity over time. The study area is the upper Valle del Gallo (Northern Italy), a typical high mountain environment dominated by mass wasting processes, where many debris-flow fans occupy the valley bottom. Dendrogeomorphological research was conducted on twelve of these fans and two channels located on slopes. Tree growth anomalies (abrasion scars, compression wood and abrupt growth changes) were used as dating methods. Two hundred and thirty nine debris debris-flow events between 1875 and 2003 were dated using 757 trees (Pinus montana Mill.). Analysis between dated events and precipitation suggests that debris flows in the study area could be triggered by 20–30 mm of rain concentrated in a few hours. The debris-flow frequency tends to increase gradually, but the highest value seems to have occurred in the period 1974–1983. This trend agrees with the historical occurrence of flooding events in Northern Italy as inferred by literature, and with similar studies conducted in the Swiss Alps. The results of this research are intended as a contribution for understanding the response of geomorphological processes to climatic changes.     

Optimal design of an equipment isolation system with nonlinear hysteretic behaviour

Vibration isolation is well recognized as an effective mitigation strategy for acceleration‐sensitive equipment subjected to earthquake. In the present paper, an equipment isolation system with nonlinear hysteretic behaviour is proposed and a methodology for the optimal design is developed. An integrable constitutive model, derived from the mathematical Duhem hysteresis operator, is adopted for the isolation system. The optimization procedure is defined through a dual‐criteria approach that involves a transmissibility criterion combined with an energy performance criterion: the former consists in limiting the absolute acceleration of the isolated equipment below an allowable threshold value; the latter, in maximizing the ratio between the energy dissipation due to hysteresis and the input energy to reduce the isolator displacements. The seismic effectiveness of the nonlinear hysteretic isolation system is numerically investigated under natural accelerograms with different frequency content and increasing levels of excitation. Both ground‐mounted and floor‐mounted equipment items are considered in the analyses; in the second case, the dynamic interaction between the equipment and its supporting structure is taken into account in the design of the isolation system, and its effects on the isolation performance and the structural response are discussed. Comparisons in terms of effectiveness and robustness with a linear isolation system with viscoelastic behaviour are eventually provided. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Palynological dating (Arenig) of the sedimentary sequence overlying the Ishkarwaz Granite (upper Yarkhun valley, Chitral, Pakistan)

A sedimentary sequence overlying a granite pluton near Ishkarwaz (upper Yarkhun valley, Chitral, Pakistan; Karakorum Microplate) contains abundant, but poorly preserved, acritarchs probably referable to the late early Arenig-early late Arenig interval. The palynological assemblages of Karakorum show a marked similarity to the cold water Peri-Gondwana assemblages; i.e. to those of Li Jun's Arbusculidium-Coryphidium-Striatotheca 'Mediterranean' Bioprovince. Biogeographical and geological comparisons suggest that, before the accretion of Cimmerian microplates to the Eurasian continent, the Karakorum Microplate was located along the northern margin of Gondwana in a latitude intermediate between the Mediterranean region and South China (Yangtze Platform).     

The old calcium plages differential rotation latitudinal profile: Its gross and fine structure evolution with the solar cycle

This work is a study of the rotational properties of the solar calcium plages, during the time interval 1967–1977; only plages older than 4 days have been the object of this research. We have looked systematically for any significant change occurring during the course of the solar cycle, and any kind of ‘anomaly’ or fine structure in the differential rotation latitudinal profile. We find that such a profile undergoes a cyclic transformation, making it assume the highest steepness at the solar maximum; a sudden flattening then occurs in the first years of declining activity; the last years of the cycle, as the first years of the next one, are characterized by intermediate steepness values. Moreover, we find that, in spite of the general belief that the angular rotation rate is continuously decreasing with increasing heliographic latitude, at least two inversions do exist of such an overall tendency:

1. A narrow, minimal angular-rotation-rate strip lies very close to the equatorward margin of the plage production band; this feature shifts continuously, in a wave-like manner, throughout the solar cycle, from 15/18° to 3/6° latitude.
2. A narrow, maximal angular-rotation-rate strip has been observed lying in the neighbourhood of the poleward margin of the activity band; a process of continuous transformation of the rotation rate profile is always active, in a narrow latitude strip on the equatorward side of such a feature, generating new features of the same kind, which replace the older ones, that disappeared due to the equatorward shift of the plage zone. All that simulates an equatorward shift of the observed ‘anomalies’; we observed them until the minimum activity epoch (1976), at 15/18° latitude. Some relations of these features with both torsionai waves (Howard and LaBonte, 1980) and magnetic activity are briefly discussed.