Fundamental changes in the activity of the natrocarbonatite volcano Oldoinyo Lengai, Tanzania

On September 4, 2007, after 25 years of effusive natrocarbonatite eruptions, the eruptive activity of Oldoinyo Lengai (OL), N Tanzania, changed abruptly to episodic explosive eruptions. This transition was preceded by a voluminous lava eruption in March 2006, a year of quiescence, resumption of natrocarbonatite eruptions in June 2007, and a volcano-tectonic earthquake swarm in July 2007. Despite the lack of ground-based monitoring, the evolution in OL eruption dynamics is documented based on the available field observations, ASTER and MODIS satellite images, and almost-daily photos provided by local pilots. Satellite data enabled identification of a phase of voluminous lava effusion in the 2 weeks prior to the onset of explosive eruptions. After the onset, the activity varied from 100 m high ash jets to 2–15 km high violent, steady or unsteady, eruption columns dispersing ash to 100 km distance. The explosive eruptions built up a ∼400 m wide, ∼75 m high intra-crater pyroclastic cone. Time series data for eruption column height show distinct peaks at the end of September 2007 and February 2008, the latter being associated with the first pyroclastic flows to be documented at OL. Chemical analyses of the erupted products, presented in a companion paper (Keller et al. 2010), show that the 2007–2008 explosive eruptions are associated with an undersaturated carbonated silicate melt. This new phase of explosive eruptions provides constraints on the factors causing the transition from natrocarbonatite effusive eruptions to explosive eruptions of carbonated nephelinite magma, observed repetitively in the last 100 years at OL.     

The effect of fluid salinity on infiltration-driven contact metamorphism of carbonate rocks

Calculated phase equilibria involving minerals and H₂O–CO₂–NaCl fluid lead to predictions of how infiltration of rock by H₂O–NaCl fluids with X _NaCl in the range 0–0.3 (0–58 wt% NaCl) drives the reactions calcite + quartz = wollastonite + CO₂ and dolomite = periclase + calcite + CO₂. Calculations focus on metamorphism in four aureoles that together are representative of the normal P–T conditions and processes of infiltration-driven contact metamorphic reactions. The effect of salinity on the spatial extent of oxygen isotope alteration was also computed. The time-integrated input fluid flux (q°) that displaces the mineral reaction front an increment of distance along the flow path always increases with increasing X _NaCl. For input fluids with salinity up to approximately five times that of seawater (X _NaCl ≤ 0.05), values of q° required to explain the spatial extent of decarbonation reaction are no more than 1.1–1.5 times that computed assuming the input fluid was pure H₂O. For more saline fluids, values of q° may be up to 1.4–7.9 times that for pure H₂O. Except for reaction in the presence of halite and vapor (V), infiltration of H₂O–NaCl fluids expands the region of oxygen isotope alteration relative to the size of the region of mineral reaction. The expansion is significant only for saline fluids with X _NaCl ≥ ~0.1. Immiscible fluid phase separation and differential loss of the liquid (L) or V phase from the mineral reaction site increases the amount of reactive fluid required to advance the mineral reaction front compared to conditions under which equilibration of minerals and fluid is attained with no loss of L or V. Decarbonation reactions driven by infiltration of fluids with even modest seawater-like salinity can explain the occurrence of salt-saturated fluid and solid halide inclusions in contact metamorphosed carbonate rocks.     

Patterns in the spatial distribution of Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) revealed by spatially explicit fishing data

Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) stock abundance is tightly driven by the high and unpredictable variability of the Humboldt Current Ecosystem. Management of the fishery therefore cannot rely on mid- or long-term management policy alone but needs to be adaptive at relatively short time scales. Regular acoustic surveys are performed on the stock at intervals of 2 to 4 times a year, but there is a need for more time continuous monitoring indicators to ensure that management can respond at suitable time scales. Existing literature suggests that spatially explicit data on the location of fishing activities could be used as a proxy for target stock distribution. Spatially explicit commercial fishing data could therefore guide adaptive management decisions at shorter time scales than is possible through scientific stock surveys. In this study we therefore aim to (1) estimate the position of fishing operations for the entire fleet of Peruvian anchovy purse–seiners using the Peruvian satellite vessel monitoring system (VMS), and (2) quantify the extent to which the distribution of purse–seine sets describes anchovy distribution. To estimate fishing set positions from vessel tracks derived from VMS data we developed a methodology based on artificial neural networks (ANN) trained on a sample of fishing trips with known fishing set positions (exact fishing positions are known for approximately 1.5% of the fleet from an at-sea observer program). The ANN correctly identified 83% of the real fishing sets and largely outperformed comparative linear models. This network is then used to forecast fishing operations for those trips where no observers were onboard. To quantify the extent to which fishing set distribution was correlated to stock distribution we compared three metrics describing features of the distributions (the mean distance to the coast, the total area of distribution, and a clustering index) for concomitant acoustic survey observations and fishing set positions identified from VMS. For two of these metrics (mean distance to the coast and clustering index), fishing and survey data were significantly correlated. We conclude that the location of purse–seine fishing sets yields significant and valuable information on the distribution of the Peruvian anchovy stock and ultimately on its vulnerability to the fishery. For example, a high concentration of sets in the near coastal zone could potentially be used as a warning signal of high levels of stock vulnerability and trigger appropriate management measures aimed at reducing fishing effort.     

Clastic sedimentary features of beachrocks and their palaeo-environmental significance:comparison of past and modern coastal regimes

Clastic sedimentary features of beachrocks and unconsolidated deposits of parent beaches were investigated along the northern Aegean coastline（Greece） to assess their suitability in palaeo-environmental reconstruction.Twelve paired datasets were collected in the Thermaikos,Toroneos,Siggitikos and lerissos gulfs of the Chalkidiki Peninsula,the adjoining Kavala Gulf and Thassos Island,comprising beachrock cores and companion beach subsurface sediments.Particle size analyses based on univariate and bivariate statistics suggest that,during the time period of beachrock formation,depositional conditions differed distinctly from those of the modern parent beaches.The results imply difference of maturity level of beach evolution from the time of cementation（coarser materials-early stage of beach formation） to modern situation（finer materials-reworked and ’mature’ beach sediments）.Furthermore,the findings indicate increasing coastal protection due to beachrock exposure in the modern swash zone.In conclusion,it is suggested that textural analysis of beachrocks in comparison with unconsolidated sediments of the parent beach might provide information regarding differences of coastal depositional regimes and future research could focus on specific-layer analysis and comparison.     

Rhythmic pelagic successions and terrestrial orbital variations. The example of the Lower Cretaceous from Angles (SE France)

An harmonic analysis of limestone bed and marl interbed thicknesses of pelagic Berriasian-Barremian interval from the Angles area (SE France) shows that marly parts of the succession contain frequencies significantly different from calcareous ones. Some of the resulting periods are in the Milankovitch frequency band but many others are different from those predicted by the orbital theory.     

Analysis of the seismicity in the central part of the Pyrenees (France), and tectonic implications

Two temporary seismological networks have been set up in 2000 and 2002 in the central part of the Pyrenees, in a region, which appears as a transition between two domains where both the seismic activity and the tectonic regime are different. Together with the permanent networks, they allowed us to obtain precise hypocenter locations for more than 400 events with local magnitudes ranging from 1.5 to 4.6, as well as 30 new focal mechanisms. The seismicity is distributed in several clusters, which are not located along the North Pyrenean Fault, considered as the major tectonic accident resulting from the suture of the Iberian and Eurasian convergent plates when the range formed. Several small fault segments dipping to the north are identified. The maximum focal depth varies from 10 to 20 km, with variations which are roughly parallel to those of the Moho, indicating a thickening of the seismogenic layer to the east of the studied area. The obtained focal solutions reveal a predominance of normal faulting to the West and reverse faulting to the East, with strike-slip motions in between. The largest fault segment to the East, with a length of about 20 km, could possibly be related to a large historical event which occurred in 1660, with intensity IX, close to cities which have become since then important touristic centres.     

Morphology, hydrography and sediment dynamics in a mangrove estuary: The Konkoure Estuary, Guinea

The Konkouré Estuary in the Republic of Guinea is a poorly understood atypical mangrove system. Sediment dynamics in tropical estuaries are controlled by a combination of processes including river discharge, morphology, salinity, erosion and deposition processes, the settling of mud, physico-chemical processes and mangrove swamps. Here we present a consistent set of data aimed at characterising the estuary and thus, increasing our understanding of tropical systems, as well as studying the impact of human intervention in the region. Water elevations, current measurements, salinity, suspended sediment concentrations, bathymetry and sediment cover are presented following a 3 year survey of the Konkouré Estuary. Here we provide conclusive evidence that the Lower Konkouré is a shallow, funnel shaped, mesotidal, mangrove-fringed, tide dominated estuary, well mixed during low river discharge. The estuary becomes stratified during high river flows and spring tides whereas a salt wedge appears during neap tides. The Konkouré Estuary has been described as hypersynchronous, and has three terminal outlets, two of which are landward-directed, attesting to a tidal pumping effect, while the third one is seaward-directed, and is controlled by the mangrove. The suspended matter is transported by the tidal effect within the middle estuary and is therefore trapped in the Turbidity Maximum zone (TMZ). The location of the TMZ is river-controlled and is correlated with residual currents but not with salinity front. A dam, constructed 130 km upstream, impacts on the hydrodynamics, and reduces the salinity intrusion by about 25%. It causes an increased low river discharge whereas its efficiency over high river flows is unclear.     

Stable isotope evidence for regional-scale fluid migration in a Barrovian metamorphic terrane,Vermont, USA

We measured the C- and O-isotopic composition of carbonate minerals in the Waits River Formation, eastern Vermont, to determine the extent of fluid infiltration during regional metamorphism over an approx. 2000 km² area in a deep-seated (>25 km) Barrovian terrane. From a petrologic study of this terrane, Ferry proposed the existence of a large regional metamorphic hydrothermal system with two first-order features: (1) on the scale of the entire terrane fluid flow was focused into the axes of two major antiforms of regional extent; (2) on a smaller scale (about 100 km²) flow was further focused around synmetamorphic granitic plutons that intruded along the axes of the antiforms. We find isotopic evidence for both the regional hydrothermal activity along the antiforms and the more intense fluid flow around synmetamorphic plutons. The evidence for hydrothermal activity around the plutons is large heavy isotope depletions, up to 6–9 in ¹⁸O_carb and ¹³C_carb, in diopside zone rocks adjacent to the plutons. These isotopic shifts are greater than can be explained solely by prograde metamorphic reactions. We find two lines of evidence for the more diffuse regional flow that was focused into axes of the antiforms. First, ¹⁸O_carb and ¹³C_carb, within individual outcrops become increasingly homogeneous with increasing grade towards antiform axes, indicating that the rocks equilibrated with a permeating fluid. Second, there are depletions in ¹⁸O near the margins of the Waits River Formation which can be interpreted as a dispersed, advective infiltration front displaced toward the antiform axes. These fronts were modelled using Eq. 13 of Bickle and Baker and imply time-integrated fluid of 10⁵–10⁶ cm³/cm², which are consistent with values derived by Ferry from measured progress of prograde devolatilization reactions.     

Quantifying initial and wind forcing uncertainties in the Gulf of Mexico

This study aims at analyzing the combined impact of uncertainties in initial conditions and wind forcing fields in ocean general circulation models (OGCM) using polynomial chaos (PC) expansions. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) are used to formulate both spatial perturbations to initial conditions and space-time wind forcing perturbations, namely in the form of a superposition of modal components with uniformly distributed random amplitudes. The forward deterministic HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) is used to propagate input uncertainties in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) in spring 2010, during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, and to generate the ensemble of model realizations based on which PC surrogate models are constructed for both localized and field quantities of interest (QoIs), focusing specifically on sea surface height (SSH) and mixed layer depth (MLD). These PC surrogate models are constructed using basis pursuit denoising methodology, and their performance is assessed through various statistical measures. A global sensitivity analysis is then performed to quantify the impact of individual modes as well as their interactions. It shows that the local SSH at the edge of the GoM main current—the Loop Current—is mostly sensitive to perturbations of the initial conditions affecting the current front, whereas the local MLD in the area of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill is more sensitive to wind forcing perturbations. At the basin scale, the SSH in the deep GoM is mostly sensitive to initial condition perturbations, while over the shelf it is sensitive to wind forcing perturbations. On the other hand, the basin MLD is almost exclusively sensitive to wind perturbations. For both quantities, the two sources of uncertainty have limited interactions. Finally, the computations indicate that whereas local quantities can exhibit complex behavior that necessitates a large number of realizations, the modal analysis of field sensitivities can be suitably achieved with a moderate size ensemble.     

Improving runoff prediction using agronomical information in a cropped,loess covered catchment

Predicting runoff hot spots and hot‐moments within a headwater crop‐catchment is of the utmost importance to reduce adverse effects on aquatic ecosystems by adapting land use management to control runoff. Reliable predictions of runoff patterns during a crop growing season remain challenging. This is mainly due to the large spatial and temporal variations of topsoil hydraulic properties controlled by complex interactions between weather, growing vegetation, and cropping operations. This interaction can significantly modify runoff patterns and few process‐based models can integrate this evolution of topsoil properties during a crop growing season at the catchment scale. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to better constrain the event‐based hydrological model Limburg Soil Erosion Model by incorporating temporal constraints for input topsoil properties during a crop growing season (LISEM). The results of the temporal constraint strategy (TCS) were compared with a classical event per event calibration strategy (EES) using multi‐scale runoff information (from plot to catchment). The EES and TCS approaches were applied in a loess catchment of 47 ha located 30 km northeast of Strasbourg (Alsace, France). A slight decrease of the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency criterion on runoff discharge for TCS compared to EES was counterbalanced by a clear improvement of the spatial runoff patterns within the catchment. This study showed that limited agronomical and climatic information added during the calibration step improved the spatial runoff predictions of an event‐based model. Reliable prediction of runoff source, connectivity, and dynamics can then be derived and discussed with stakeholders to identify runoff hot spots and hot‐moments for subsequent land use and crop management modifications.