Tropical drought patterns and their linkages to large-scale climate variability over Peninsular Malaysia

Ocean–atmosphere modes of climate variability in the Pacific and Indian oceans, as well as monsoons, regulate the regional wet and dry episodes in tropical regions. However, how those modes of climate variability, and their interactions, lead to spatial differences in drought patterns over tropical Asia at seasonal to interannual time scales remains unclear. This study aims to analyse the hydroclimate processes for both short- and long-term spatial drought patterns (3-, 6, 12- and 24-months) over Peninsular Malaysia using the Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and Palmer Drought Severity Index. Besides that, a generalized least squares regression is used to explore underlying circulation mechanisms of these spatio-temporal drought patterns. The tested drought indices indicate a tendency towards wetter conditions over Peninsular Malaysia. Based on principal component analysis, distinct spatio-temporal drought patterns are revealed, suggesting North–South and East–West gradients in drought distribution. The Pacific El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the South Western Indian Ocean (SWIO) variability, and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are significant contributors to the observed spatio-temporal variability in drought. Both the ENSO and the SWIO modulate the North–South gradient in drought conditions over Peninsular Malaysia, while the QBO contributes more to the East–West gradient. Through modulating regional moisture fluxes, the warm phases of the ENSO and the SWIO, and the western phases of the QBO weaken the southwest and northeast monsoon, leading to precipitation deficits and droughts over Peninsular Malaysia. The East–West or North–South gradients in droughts are related to the middle mountains blocking southwest and northeast moisture fluxes towards Peninsular Malaysia. In addition, the ENSO and QBO variations are significantly leading to short-term droughts (less than a year), while the SWIO is significantly associated with longer-duration droughts (2 years or more). Overall, this work demonstrates how spatio-temporal drought patterns in tropical regions are related to monsoons and moisture transports affected by the oscillations over the Pacific and Indian oceans, which is important for national water risk management.     

Sulfur isotopic composition of Fe‐Ni sulfide grains in CI and CM carbonaceous chondrites

Abstract– In situ secondary ion mass spectrometry analyses of ³²S, ³³S, and ³⁴S in iron‐nickel sulfide grains in two CI1 chondrites and six CM chondrites were performed. The results show a wider range of both enrichment and depletion in δ³⁴S relative to troilite from the Canyon Diablo meteorite (CDT) than has been observed in previous studies. All data points lie within error of a single mass dependent fractionation line. Sulfides from CI1 chondrites show δ³⁴S_CDT from ?0.7 to 6.8‰, while sulfide grains in the CM1 chondrite are generally depleted in heavy sulfur relative to CDT (δ³⁴S from ?2.9 to 1.8‰). CM2 chondrites contain sulfide grains that show enrichment and depletion in ³⁴S (δ³⁴S_CDT from ?7.0 to 6.8‰). Sulfates forming from sulfide grains during aqueous alteration on the chondrite parent body are suggested to concentrate light sulfur, leaving the remaining sulfide grains enriched in the heavy isotopes of sulfur. The average degree of enrichment in ³⁴S in CM chondrite sulfides is broadly consistent with previously suggested alteration sequences.     

Global effect of irrigation and its impact on the onset of the Indian summer monsoon

In a context of increased demand for food and of climate change, the water consumptions associated with the agricultural practice of irrigation focuses attention. In order to analyze the global influence of irrigation on the water cycle, the land surface model ORCHIDEE is coupled to the GCM LMDZ to simulate the impact of irrigation on climate. A 30-year simulation which takes into account irrigation is compared with a simulation which does not. Differences are usually not significant on average over all land surfaces but hydrological variables are significantly affected by irrigation over some of the main irrigated river basins. Significant impacts over the Mississippi river basin are shown to be contrasted between eastern and western regions. An increase in summer precipitation is simulated over the arid western region in association with enhanced evapotranspiration whereas a decrease in precipitation occurs over the wet eastern part of the basin. Over the Indian peninsula where irrigation is high during winter and spring, a delay of 6?days is found for the mean monsoon onset date when irrigation is activated, leading to a significant decrease in precipitation during May to July. Moreover, the higher decrease occurs in June when the water requirements by crops are maximum, exacerbating water scarcity in this region. A significant cooling of the land surfaces occurs during the period of high irrigation leading to a decrease of the land-sea heat contrast in June, which delays the monsoon onset.     

Combined climatic and geological forcings on the spatio-temporal variability of piezometric levels in the chalk aquifer of Upper Normandy (France) at pluridecennal scale

The temporal variability of water-level fluctuations in the chalk aquifer of Upper Normandy, France is constrained by natural climate fluctuations and is closely linked to the regional geological patterns. The chalk plateaus are covered with 5–50 m thick semi-permeable surficial formations; the thickness of the underlying chalk aquifer varies from 50 to 300 m. The relationship among climate oscillations, piezometric levels, and geologic structure were investigated by correlation, Fourier spectral, and continuous wavelet analyses of selected piezometric time-series data. Analysis focused on two piezometers located on the uplifted side of a major fault and two piezometers on the downthrown side. After generalization to other piezometers in the region, it was deduced that, in the downthrown compartments, a substantial aquifer and surficial formations thickness would imply a strong attenuation of annual variability, while multi-year variability is clearly expressed. Conversely, in the uplifted compartments, a thin layer of surficial formations and small thickness of the chalk authorizes strong variations on the annual mode with respect to the contribution of long-term climatic oscillations (multi-year variability). The results then demonstrated—and proposed a spatial determination of—the differential influence of geological patterns on the filtering of climate-induced oscillations in piezometric variability.     

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products

Monthly averaged total volume transport of the Indonesian throughflow (ITF) estimated by 14 global ocean data assimilation (ODA) products that are decade to multi-decade long are compared among themselves and with observations from the INSTANT Program (2004–2006). The main goals of the comparisons are to examine the consistency and evaluate the skill of different ODA products in simulating ITF transport. The ensemble averaged, time-mean value of ODA estimates is 13.6 Sv (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³/s) for the common 1993–2001 period and 13.9 Sv for the 2004–2006 INSTANT Program period. These values are close to the 15-Sv estimate derived from INSTANT observations. All but one ODA time-mean estimate fall within the range of uncertainty of the INSTANT estimate. In terms of temporal variability, the scatter among different ODA estimates averaged over time is 1.7 Sv, which is substantially smaller than the magnitude of the temporal variability simulated by the ODA systems. Therefore, the overall “signal-to-noise” ratio for the ensemble estimates is larger than one. The best consistency among the products occurs on seasonal-to-interannual time scales, with generally stronger (weaker) ITF during boreal summer (winter) and during La Nina (El Nino) events. The scatter among different products for seasonal-to-interannual time scales is approximately 1 Sv. Despite the good consistency, systematic difference is found between most ODA products and the INSTANT observations. All but the highest-resolution (18 km) ODA product show a dominant annual cycle while the INSTANT estimate and the 18-km product exhibit a strong semi-annual signal. The coarse resolution is an important factor that limits the level of agreement between ODA and INSTANT estimates. Decadal signals with periods of 10–15 years are seen. The most conspicuous and consistent decadal change is a relatively sharp increase in ITF transport during 1993–2000 associated with the strengthening tropical Pacific trade wind. Most products do not show a weakening ITF after the mid-1970s’ associated with the weakened Pacific trade wind. The scatter of ODA estimates is smaller after than before 1980, reflecting the impact of the enhanced observations after the 1980s. To assess the representativeness of using the average over a three-year period (e.g., the span of the INSTANT Program) to describe longer-term mean, we investigate the temporal variations of the three-year low-pass ODA estimates. The average variation is about 3.6 Sv, which is largely due to the increase of ITF transport from 1993 to 2000. However, the three-year average during the 2004–2006 INSTANT Program period is within 0.5 Sv of the long-term mean for the past few decades.     

Tidal mixing in the Indonesian Seas and its effect on the tropical climate system

The sensitivity of the tropical climate to tidal mixing in the Indonesian Archipelago (IA) is investigated using a coupled general circulation model. It is shown that the introduction of tidal mixing considerably improves water masses properties in the IA, generating fresh and cold anomalies in the thermocline and salty and cold anomalies at the surface. The subsurface fresh anomalies are advected in the Indian Ocean thermocline and ultimately surface to freshen the western part of the basin whereas surface salty anomalies are advected in the Leuwin current to salt waters along the Australian coast. The ~0.5°C surface cooling in the IA reduces by 20% the overlying deep convection. This improves both the amount and structure of the rainfall and weakens the wind convergence over the IA, relaxes the equatorial Pacific trade winds and strengthens the winds along Java coast. These wind changes causes the thermocline to be deeper in the eastern equatorial Pacific and shallower in the eastern Indian Ocean. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude is therefore slightly reduced while the Indian Ocean Dipole/Zonal Mode (IODZM) variability increases. IODZM precursors, related to ENSO events the preceding winter in this model, are also shown to be more efficient in promoting an IODZM thanks to an enhanced wind/thermocline coupling. Changes in the coupled system in response tidal mixing are as large as those found when closing the Indonesian Throughflow, emphasizing the key role of IA on the Indo-Pacific climate.     

Gulf Stream evolution through the Straits of Florida: the role of eddies and upwelling near Cuba

Ocean Dynamics - The meandering of the Gulf Stream through the Straits of Florida is associated with eddy activity to the north (along the Florida Keys) and the south (along the Cuban coast). This...     

What role for climate negotiations on technology transfer?

Little progress has been made in climate negotiations on technology since 1992. Yet the diffusion of climate change mitigation technologies to developing countries (non-Annex I) has increased dramatically over the last twenty years. The shift has mostly concerned emerging economies, which are now reasonably well connected to international technology flows. This is good news, as the bulk of emissions increases are expected to take place in these countries in the near future. In contrast, the least developed countries still appear to be excluded from international technology flows, mostly because of their negligible participation in the recent economic globalization. This article focuses on the policy implications of the contribution of climate negotiations to international technology diffusion.

Policy relevance

The discrepancy between the small amount of progress made in climate negotiations on technology since 1992 and the steady increase in the international diffusion of climate mitigation technologies leads to the perhaps controversial view that the diffusion of climate mitigation technologies does not need strong international coordination over technology issues under the UNFCCC. However, climate negotiations can play a key role in stimulating the demand for low-carbon technologies by setting ambitious emission reductions targets and policies.     

The role of boundary conditions in numerical models of subduction zone dynamics

Numerical studies of subduction zone dynamics on a regional scale usually use a limited spatial extent for their models and therefore need to define boundary conditions on all model edges. These boundary conditions imply a choice for the mechanical and thermal state of the surrounding regions which may influence the evolution of the model system. We investigate the role of the surface and lateral boundary conditions for simple mechanical subduction models using a standard finite element method. We find that subduction is only possible if the slab can decouple from the surface. This decoupling can be achieved by a true free surface, a free-slip surface with a weak crust for the subducting plate, or a free-slip surface with a layer of low viscosity, low density material (‘sticky air’) between the model surface and the crust. Models of slab dynamics that employ a free-slip surface reproduce trench migration, slab sinking velocities and slab geometry of models with a free surface, as long as they use either a weak crust, which can be viscous, viscoelastic and/or brittle, or a ‘sticky air’ layer. The vertical topography will however not be reproduced for free-slip models without a ‘sticky air’ layer. For ocean–ocean convergent models we find that the application of inflow boundary conditions at the edges of the subducting or overriding lithosphere controls trench motion and the geometry of the subducting slab. Inflow on the overriding side causes trench retreat and a slab resting on the lower mantle, whereas inflow restricted to the subducting side can cause trench advance and a slab which folds on the lower mantle.