ASSURE: a model for the simulation of urban expansion and intra-urban social segregation

Numerous cities in developing regions worldwide are expanding at a tremendous rate. This requires adequate strategies to address the needs of these growing cities with diverse populations. Nonetheless, the development of urban policies is often hampered by the lack of reliable data or insight in the socio-spatial dynamics of this urban expansion. This paper therefore presents ASSURE, a spatially and temporally explicit model that can simulate urban growth and intra-urban social segregation, taking into account alternative policy strategies and expected social dynamics. The model has a flexible structure that allows incorporating specific city conditions that influence residential decision-making and adapting the simulation to the data available. This, in combination with the transparent model structure, makes ASSURE a potentially valuable decision support tool for urban planning. The potential is demonstrated with an example where the urban growth of and social segregation in Kampala (Uganda) is simulated based on (semi-)quantitative and qualitative data for ca. 800 households collected through interviews. The results of the simulations show that depending on the scenario, the spatial segregation and accessibility problems will evolve highly differently.     

Ambiguity in the altitude effect of precipitation isotopes for estimating groundwater recharge elevation and paleoelevation reconstruction in the leeward side of a mountain

The altitude effect of isotopes in precipitation is not as significant on the leeward side of a mountain as it is on the windward side, which makes it difficult to use isotopes at leeward sites, especially if estimating elevation of groundwater recharge or reconstructing paleoelevations. Samples of precipitation were taken at three stations with different elevations—2,306–3,243 m above mean sea level (asl)—on the leeward side of the Meili Snow Mountains on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau from August 2017 to July 2018. The isotope vs. altitude gradients were calculated based on two adjacent stations at the daily, monthly, and annual scales. Most of the gradients are beyond the global ranges of –0.5 to –0.1‰ per 100 m for δ¹⁸O and –5 to –1‰ per 100 m for δ²H, and some of the gradients are even positive. Local processes of sub-cloud evaporation and mixing with recycled moisture are identified for the ambiguous altitude effect, while regional atmospheric circulation processes dominate the major patterns of stable isotope variation at the three stations. The groundwater recharge elevation is estimated to be in a very large range, 2,562–6,321 m asl, which could be caused by the differences in isotope vs. altitude gradient in the studied catchments. Considering the complex atmospheric processes affecting precipitation isotopes, sampling of event-based/monthly precipitation at more than two altitudes for at least one complete hydrological year is a minimum requirement to establish a reasonable isotope vs. altitude gradient.

     

Sub‐arctic Holocene climatic and oceanographic variability in Stjernsund,northern Norway: evidence from benthic foraminifera and stable isotopes

A high‐resolution record, covering 9.3–0.2 ka BP, from the sub‐arctic Stjernsund (70°N) was studied for benthic foraminiferal faunas and stable isotopes, revealing three informally named main phases during the Holocene. The Early‐ to Mid‐Holocene (9.3–5.0 ka BP) was characterized by the strong influence of the North Atlantic Current (NAC), which prevented the reflection of the Holocene Climatic Optimum (HCO) in the bottom‐water temperature. During the Mid‐Holocene Transition (5.0–2.5 ka BP), a turnover of benthic foraminiferal faunas occurred, Atlantic Water species decreased while Arctic‐Polar species increased, and the oxygen isotope record showed larger fluctuations. Those variations correspond to a period of global climate change, to spatially more heterogeneous benthic foraminiferal faunas in the Nordic Seas region, and to regionally diverging terrestrial temperatures. The Cool Late Holocene (2.5–0.2 ka BP) was characterized by increased abundances of Arctic‐Polar species and a steady cooling trend reflected in the oxygen isotopes. In this period, our record differs considerably from those on the SW Barents Sea shelf and locations farther south. Therefore, we argue that regional atmospheric cooling triggered the late Holocene cooling trend. Several cold episodes centred at ～8.3, ～7.8, ～6.5, ～4.9, ～3.9 and ～3.3 ka BP were identified from the benthic foraminiferal faunas and the δ¹⁸O record, which correlated with marine and atmospherically driven proxy records. This suggests that short‐term cold events may result from reduced heat advection via the NAC or from colder air temperatures.     

Fully coupled simulation of fluid injection into geomaterials with focus on nonlinear near‐well behavior

An important part of our global wealth depends on the extraction of fluids from porous media. More recently, sequestration of carbon dioxide (rmCO₂) into deep geological layers as a possible measure to mitigate climate change has increased interest in fluid injection into porous media. Sophisticated numerical models play an important role in managing the uncertainties related to the subsurface, and finite element methods are the most versatile tool allowing the coupling of fluid flow, geomechanics and other physical processes. This paper gives insight into two important aspects of fluid injection/extraction in porous media: the correct modeling of the bore hole through specification of initial stresses, which together with a fully coupled strategy allows simulation of nonlinear poromechanics, and the imposition of appropriate boundary conditions that allow the controlled injection/extraction of a total specified amount of fluid in an anisotropic porous medium, without exceeding a safe operating pressure. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Orbit and origin of the LL7 chondrite Dishchii'bikoh (Arizona)

The trajectory and orbit of the LL7 ordinary chondrite Dishchii'bikoh are derived from low‐light video observations of a fireball first detected at 10:56:26 UTC on June 2, 2016. Results show a relatively steep ~21° inclined orbit and a short 1.13 AU semimajor axis. Following entry in Earth's atmosphere, the meteor luminosity oscillated corresponding to a meteoroid spin rate of 2.28 ± 0.02 rotations per second. A large fragment broke off at 44 km altitude. Further down, mass was lost to dust during flares at altitudes of 34, 29, and 25 km. Surviving meteorites were detected by Doppler weather radar and several small 0.9–29 g meteorites were recovered under the radar reflection footprint. Based on cosmogenic radionuclides and ground‐based radiometric observations, the Dishchii'bikoh meteoroid was 80 ± 20 cm in diameter assuming the density was 3.5 g/cm³. The meteoroid's collisional history confirms that the unusual petrologic class of LL7 does not require a different parent body than three previously observed LL chondrite falls. Dishchii'bikoh was ejected 11 Ma ago from parent body material that has a 4471 ± 6 Ma U‐Pb age, the same as that of Chelyabinsk (4452 ± 21 Ma). The distribution of the four known pre‐impact LL chondrite orbits is best matched by dynamical modeling if the source of LL chondrites is in the inner asteroid belt in a low inclined orbit, with the highly inclined Dishchii'bikoh being the result of interactions with Earth before impacting.     

Annama H chondrite—Mineralogy,physical properties,cosmic ray exposure,and parent body history

The fall of the Annama meteorite occurred early morning (local time) on April 19, 2014 on the Kola Peninsula (Russia). Based on mineralogy and physical properties, Annama is a typical H chondrite. It has a high Ar‐Ar age of 4.4 Ga. Its cosmic ray exposure history is atypical as it is not part of the large group of H chondrites with a prominent 7–8 Ma peak in the exposure age histograms. Instead, its exposure age is within uncertainty of a smaller peak at 30 ± 4 Ma. The results from short‐lived radionuclides are compatible with an atmospheric pre‐entry radius of 30–40 cm. However, based on noble gas and cosmogenic radionuclide data, Annama must have been part of a larger body (radius >65 cm) for a large part of its cosmic ray exposure history. The ¹⁰Be concentration indicates a recent (3–5 Ma) breakup which may be responsible for the Annama parent body size reduction to 30–35 cm pre‐entry radius.     

An Electron-Balance Based Approach to Predict the Decreasing Denitrification Potential of an Aquifer

Numerical models for reactive transport can be used to estimate the breakthrough of a contaminant in a pumping well or at other receptors. However, as natural aquifers are highly heterogeneous with unknown spatial details, reactive transport predictions on the aquifer scale require a stochastic framework for uncertainty analysis. The high computational demand of spatially explicit reactive-transport models hampers such analysis, thus motivating the search for simplified estimation tools. We suggest performing an electron balance between the reactants in the infiltrating solution and in the aquifer matrix to obtain the hypothetical time of dissolved-reactant breakthrough at a receptor if the reaction with the matrix was instantaneous. This time we denote as the advective breakthrough time for instantaneous reaction (τ_inst ). It depends on the amount of the reaction partner present in the matrix, the mass flux of the dissolved reactant, and the stoichiometry. While the shape of the reactive-species breakthrough curve depends on various kinetic parameters, the overall timing scales with τ_inst . We calculate the latter by particle tracking. The effort of computing τ_inst is so low that stochastic calculations become feasible. We apply the concept to a two-dimensional test case of aerobic respiration and denitrification. A detailed spatially explicit reactive-transport model includes microbial dynamics. Scaling the time of local breakthrough curves observed at individual points by τ_inst decreased the variability of electron-donor breakthrough curves significantly. We conclude that the advective breakthrough time for instantaneous reaction is efficient in estimating the time over which an aquifer retains its degradation potential.