Compliance for uncertain inventories via probabilistic/fuzzy comparison of alternatives

A direct comparison among highly uncertain inventories of emissions is inadequate and may lead to paradoxes. This issue is of particular importance in the case of greenhouse gases. This paper reviews the methods for the comparison of uncertain inventories in the context of compliance checking. The problem is treated as a comparison of uncertain alternatives. It provides a categorization and ranking of the inventories which can induce compliance checking conditions. Two groups of techniques to compare uncertain estimates are considered in the paper: probabilistic and fuzzy approaches. They show certain similarities which are revealed and stressed throughout the paper. The group of methods most suitable for the compliance purpose is distinguished. They introduce new conditions for fulfilling compliance, depending on inventory uncertainty. These new conditions considerably change the present approach, where only the reported values of inventories are accounted for.     

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts,adaptation and vulnerability research

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.     

The Water Framework Directive: Can more information be extracted from groundwater data? A case study of Seewinkel,Burgenland, eastern Austria

Water protection is one of the most important goals in environmental protection. The Clean Water Act in the USA and the Water Framework Directive (WFD) in Europe are the legal frameworks to facilitate the achievement of this goal. The question is raised of whether more information can be extracted from WFD-related groundwater data. To answer it, a methodology has been developed that is easy to use and could be implemented into official practice. A case study is presented in which the groundwater data of a sodic area in Austria (Seewinkel) is assessed. Eighteen parameters in groundwater sampled from 23 wells (1991–2011) were analyzed. With basic statistics, trend-, cluster-, Wilks’ λ and spatial sampling density analysis, local phosphorus and boron phenomena were described, along with the determining role of sulphate, groundwater flow, and the oxygen gradient in the area. As a final step, the spatial sampling density was determined. Regarding the current set of parameters, all the sampling sites are necessary and only in the case of certain parameters (Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, K⁺, NO₃ ^?, pH) could one sampling site be abandoned. The methodology applied brings a new perspective to exploring groundwater data collected according to the requirements of the WFD.     

Europrobe seismic reflection profiling across the eastern Middle Urals and West Siberian Basin

New deep seismic reflection data provide images of the crust and uppermost mantle underlying the eastern Middle Urals and adjacent West Siberian Basin. Distinct truncations of reflections delineate the late-orogenic strike-slip Sisert Fault extending vertically to ∼28 km depth, and two gently E-dipping reflection zones, traceable to 15–18 km depth, probably represent normal faults associated with the opening of the West Siberian Basin. A possible remnant Palaeozoic subduction zone in the lower crust under the West Siberian Basin is visible as a gently SW-dipping zone of pronounced reflectivity truncated by the Moho. Continuity of shallow to intermediate-depth reflections suggest that Palaeozoic accreted island-arc terranes and overlying molasse sequences exposed in the hinterland of the Urals form the basement for Triassic and younger deposits in the West Siberian Basin. A highly reflective lower crust overlies a transparent mantle at about 43 km depth along the entire 100 km long seismic reflection section, suggesting that the lower crust and Moho below the eastern Middle Urals and West Siberian Basin have the same origin.     

Thermochronological evidence for Mio‐Pliocene late orogenic extension in the north‐eastern Albanides (Albania)

New apatite and zircon (U–Th)/He and apatite fission‐track (FT) data allow constraining the timing of Miocene–Pliocene extensional exhumation that affected the central part of the Dinarides‐Albanides‐Hellenides orogen. Apatite (U–Th)/He ages in the northern and western Internal Albanides range from 57 to 17 Ma, contrasting to younger ages of 5.2–9.3 Ma in the eastern Internal Albanides. Eastward younging is also reflected in zircon (U–Th)/He ages varying from 101 Ma in the north‐western Internal Albanides to 19–50 Ma in the east, as well as in recently published apatite FT ages. Thermal history predictions with the new data point to a phase of rapid exhumation of the eastern Internal Albanides around 6–4 Ma, while the western Internal Albanides record slower continuous exhumation since the Eocene. This asymmetric exhumation pattern is most likely linked to extensional reactivation of NE–SW‐trending thrusts east of the Mirdita zone and within the Korabi zone of the eastern Internal Albanides.     

Heterogeneity-Induced Heat-Flux Patterns in the Convective Boundary Layer: Can they be Detected from Observations and is There a Blending Height?—A Large-Eddy Simulation Study for the LITFASS-2003 Experiment

An understanding of how the convective boundary layer (CBL) is mixed under heterogeneous surface forcing is crucial for the interpretation of area-averaged turbulence measurements. To determine the height and degree to which a complex heterogeneous surface affects the CBL, large-eddy simulations (LES) for two days of the LITFASS-2003 experiment representing two different wind regimes were undertaken. Spatially-lagged correlation analysis revealed the turbulent heat fluxes to be dependent on the prescribed surface flux pattern throughout the entire CBL including the entrainment layer. These findings prompted the question of whether signals induced by surface heterogeneity can be measured by airborne systems. To examine this question, an ensemble of virtual flights was conducted using LES, according to Helipod flight measurements made during LITFASS-2003. The resulting ensemble-averaged heat fluxes indicated a clear dependence on the underlying surface up to the top of the CBL. However, a large scatter between the flux measurements in different ensemble runs was observed, which was the result of insufficient sampling of the largest turbulent eddies. The random and systematic errors based on the integral length scale did not indicate such a large scatter. For the given flight leg lengths, at least 10–15 statistically independent flight measurements were necessary to give a significant estimate of heterogeneity-induced signals in the CBL. The need for ensemble averaging suggests that the observed blending of heterogeneity-induced signals in the CBL can be partly attributed to insufficient averaging.     

A Comment on “How Well Can We Measure the Vertical Wind Speed? Implications for Fluxes of Energy and Mass” by Kochendorfer et al.

Kochendorfer et al. (Boundary-Layer Meterol, 145:383–398, 2012) conducted an experiment to evaluate azimuth and angle-of-attack dependent errors of sonic anemometer measurements. Several questions are raised regarding the experimental design and the presented results. The finding that instruments with non-orthogonal sonic paths underestimate fluctuations of vertical wind speed and consequently also scalar fluxes by about 10 % is compared with the results of a hitherto unpublished side-by-side field comparison and other past intercomparison experiments. Scale considerations are presented that raise considerable doubts on the validity of the implicit assumption of Kochendorfer et al. (2012) that the turbulent wind vector is highly correlated across a distance of 1.2 m at a height of 2.5 m over flat grassland, which corresponds to the separation between the sonic anemometers tested in their experiment. Nevertheless, new developments in sonic anemometer design to minimize transducer-shadow effects are desirable.     

PSF-fitting techniques for crowded field 3D spectroscopy

From a historical point of view, it was only through the advent of the CCD as a linear, high dynamic range panoramic detector that it became possible to overcome the source confusion problem for stellar photometry, e.g., in star clusters or nearby galaxies. The ability of accurately sampling the point-spread-function (PSF) in two dimensions and to use it as a template for fitting severely overlapping stellar images is of fundamental importance for crowded-field photometry, and has thus become the foundation for the determination of accurate color-magnitude diagrams of globular clusters and the study of resolved stellar populations in nearby galaxies. Analogous to CCDs, the introduction of integral field spectrographs has opened a new avenue for crowded-field 3D spectroscopy, which benefits in the same way from PSF-fitting techniques as CCD photometry does. This paper presents first experience with sampling the PSF in 3D spectroscopy, reviews the effects of atmospheric refraction, discusses background subtraction problems, and presents several science applications as obtained from observations with the PMAS instrument at Calar Alto Observatory.