Downscaling reveals diverse effects of anthropogenic climate warming on the potential for local environments to support malaria transmission

The potential impact of climate warming on patterns of malaria transmission has been the subject of keen scientific and policy debate. Standard climate models (GCMs) characterize climate change at relatively coarse spatial and temporal scales. However, malaria parasites and the mosquito vectors respond to diurnal variations in conditions at very local scales. Here we bridge this gap by downscaling a series of GCMs to provide high-resolution temperature data for four different sites and show that although outputs from both the GCM and the downscaled models predict diverse but qualitatively similar effects of warming on the potential for adult mosquitoes to transmit malaria, the predicted magnitude of change differs markedly between the different model approaches. Raw GCM model outputs underestimate the effects of climate warming at both hot (3-fold) and cold (8–12 fold) extremes, and overestimate (3-fold) the change under intermediate conditions. Thus, downscaling could add important insights to the standard application of coarse-scale GCMs for biophysical processes driven strongly by local microclimatic conditions.     

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.     

A temperature-induced reversible transformation between paratacamite and herbertsmithite

The crystal chemistry of paratacamite has been re-evaluated by studying a crystal from the holotype specimen BM86958 of composition Cu_3.71Zn_0.29(OH)₆Cl₂ using single-crystal X-ray diffraction at 100, 200, 300, 353, 393 and 423 K. At 300 K paratacamite has space group $R\bar{3}$ with unit-cell parameters a 13.644 and c 14.035 Å and exhibits a pronounced subcell, a′ = ½a and c′ = c, analogous to that of the closely related mineral herbertsmithite, Cu₃Zn(OH)₆Cl₂. Between 353 and 393 K, paratacamite undergoes a reversible phase transformation to the herbertsmithite-like substructure, space group $R\bar{3}m$ , unit-cell parameters a 6.839 and c 14.072 Å (393 K). The transformation is characterised by a gradual reduction in intensity of superlattice reflections, which are absent at 393 and 443 K. On cooling from 443 to 300 K at ~10 K min^?1, the superlattice reflections reappear and the refined structures ( $R\bar{3}$ ) of the initial and recovered 300 K states are almost identical. The complete reversibility of the transformation establishes that paratacamite of composition Cu_3.71Zn_0.29(OH)₆Cl₂ is thermodynamically stable at ambient temperatures. The nature of the rhombic distortion of the M(2)O₆ octahedron is discussed by considering two possibilities that are dependent upon the nature of cation substitution in the interlayer sites.     

The origin of the initial mass function and its dependence on the mean Jeans mass in molecular clouds

We investigate the dependence of stellar properties on the mean thermal Jeans mass in molecular clouds. We compare the results from the two largest hydrodynamical simulations of star formation to resolve the fragmentation process down to the opacity limit, the first of which was reported by Bate, Bonnell & Bromm. The initial conditions of the two calculations are identical except for the radii of the clouds, which are chosen so that the mean densities and mean thermal Jeans masses of the clouds differ by factors of 9 and 3, respectively.
We find that the denser cloud, with the lower mean thermal Jeans mass, produces a higher proportion of brown dwarfs and has a lower characteristic (median) mass of the stars and brown dwarfs. This dependence of the initial mass function (IMF) on the density of the cloud may explain the observation that the Taurus star-forming region appears to be deficient in brown dwarfs when compared with the Orion Trapezium cluster. The new calculation also produces wide binaries (separations >20 au), one of which is a wide binary brown dwarf system.
Based on the hydrodynamical calculations, we develop a simple accretion/ejection model for the origin of the IMF. In the model, all stars and brown dwarfs begin with the same mass (set by the opacity limit for fragmentation) and grow in mass until their accretion is terminated stochastically by their ejection from the cloud through dynamically interactions. The model predicts that the main variation of the IMF in different star-forming environments should be in the location of the peak (due to variations in the mean thermal Jeans mass of the cloud) and in the substellar regime. However, the slope of the IMF at high masses may depend on the dispersion in the accretion rates of protostars.     

Lyman α radiative transfer in a multiphase medium

Hydrogen Lyman α (Lyα) is our primary emission-line window into high-redshift galaxies. Despite an extensive literature, Lyα radiative transfer in the most realistic case of a dusty, multiphase medium has received surprisingly little detailed theoretical attention. We investigate Lyα resonant scattering through an ensemble of dusty, moving, optically thick gas clumps. We treat each clump as a scattering particle and use Monte Carlo simulations of surface scattering to quantify continuum and Lyα surface scattering angles, absorption probabilities, and frequency redistribution, as a function of the gas dust content. This atomistic approach speeds up the simulations by many orders of magnitude, making possible calculations which are otherwise intractable. Our fitting formulae can be readily adapted for fast radiative transfer in numerical simulations. With these surface scattering results, we develop an analytic framework for estimating escape fractions and line widths as a function of gas geometry, motion, and dust content. Our simple analytic model shows good agreement with full Monte Carlo simulations. We show that the key geometric parameter is the average number of surface scatters for escape in the absence of absorption,     , and we provide fitting formulae for several geometries of astrophysical interest. We consider the following two interesting applications. (i) Equivalent widths ( EWs ). Lyα can preferentially escape from a dusty multiphase interstellar medium if most of the dust lies in cold neutral clouds, which Lyα photons cannot penetrate. This might explain the anomalously high EWs sometimes seen in high-redshift/submillimetre sources. (ii) Multiphase galactic outflows . We show the characteristic profile is asymmetric with a broad red tail, and relate the profile features to the outflow speed and gas geometry. Many future applications are envisaged.