Socioeconomic impacts of environmental risks in the western Makran zone (Chabahar,Iran)

Natural Hazards - The western Makran subduction zone is capable of producing considerable tsunami run-up heights that penetrate up to 5 km inland. In this study, we show how climate change...     

Comparing predictive capability of statistical and deterministic methods for landslide susceptibility mapping: a case study in the northern Apennines (Reggio Emilia Province, Italy)

Statistical and deterministic methods are widely used in geographic information system based landslide susceptibility mapping. This paper compares the predictive capability of three different models, namely the Weight of Evidence, the Fuzzy Logic and SHALSTAB, for producing shallow earth slide susceptibility maps, to be included as informative layers in land use planning at a local level. The test site is an area of about 450 km² in the northern Apennines of Italy where, in April 2004, rainfall combined with snowmelt triggered hundreds of shallow earth slides that damaged roads and other infrastructure. An inventory of the landslides triggered by the event was obtained from interpretation of aerial photos dating back to May 2004. The pre-existence of mapped landslides was then checked using earlier aerial photo coverage. All the predictive models were run on the same set of geo-environmental causal factors: soil type, soil thickness, land cover, possibility of deep drainage through the bedrock, slope angle, and upslope contributing area. Model performance was assessed using a threshold-independent approach (the ROC plot). Results show that global accuracy is as high as 0.77 for both statistical models, while it is only 0.56 for SHALSTAB. Besides the limited quality of input data over large areas, the relatively poorer performance of the deterministic model maybe also due to the simplified assumptions behind the hydrological component (steady-state slope parallel flow), which can be considered unsuitable for describing the hydrologic behavior of clay slopes, that are widespread in the study area.     

Morphometric Analysis on the Size, Shape and Areal Distribution of Glacial Cirques in the Maritime Alps (Western French-Italian Alps)

The morphometry of 432 glacial cirques in the Maritime Alps (Western French‐Italian Alps), studied over several years of fieldwork, was analysed with the use of a geographical information system. Some of the parameters automatically evaluated from digital elevation models required an objective and relatively new definition. In particular, cirque length was measured along a line that, from the threshold midpoint, splits the cirque into two equivalent surfaces; cirque width was automatically drawn as the longest line inscribed in the cirque and perpendicular to the length line. Significant correlations were found among the different factors and parameters analysed. In particular, cirque shape analysis showed that cirques develop allometrically in the three dimensions, i.e. more in length and width than in altitudinal range. Nevertheless cirques of the Maritime Alps have a regular, almost circular shape (mean L/W value = 1.07). The correlations among length, width and area are all very high (r²= 0.8–0.9). In terms of size, cirques show a wide range in area from 0.06 to 5.2 km² with a mean value of 0.4 km². The largest cirques are found on SSW‐facing slopes and at high elevations. Small cirques can be found at all altitudes but all those at high elevation are part of compound cirques at the main head valleys. Most cirques (37%) are characterized by a northern aspect; NE and SW are also frequent directions.     

Fast Earth–Moon transfers with ballistic capture

This contribution deals with fast Earth–Moon transfers with ballistic capture in the patched three-body model. We compute ensembles of preliminary solutions using a model that takes into account the relative inclination of the orbital planes of the primaries. The ballistic capture orbits around the Moon are obtained relying on the hyperbolic invariant structures associated to the collinear Lagrangian points of the Earth–Moon system, and the Sun–Earth system portion of the transfers are quasi-periodic orbits obtained by a genetic algorithm. The trajectories are designed to be good initial guesses to search optimal cost-efficient short-time Earth–Moon transfers with ballistic capture in more realistic models.     

Is the Linné impact crater morphology influenced by the rheological layering on the Moon's surface? Insights from numerical modeling

Linné is a simple crater, with a diameter of 2.23 km and a depth of 0.52 km, located in northwestern Mare Serenitatis. Recent high‐resolution data acquired by the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera revealed that the shape of this impact structure is best described by an inverted truncated‐cone. We perform morphometric measurements, including slope and profile curvature, on the Digital Terrain Model of Linné, finding the possible presence of three subtle topographic steps, at the elevation of +20, ?100, and ?200 m relative to the target surface. The kink at ?100 m might be related to the interface between two different rheological layers. Using the iSALE shock physics code, we numerically model the formation of Linné crater to derive hints on the possible impact conditions and target physical properties. In the initial setup, we adopt a basaltic projectile impacting the Moon with a speed of 18 km s^?1. For the local surface, we consider either one or two layers, in order to test the influence of material properties or composite rheologies on the final crater morphology. The one‐layer model shows that the largest variations in the crater shape take place when either the cohesion or the friction coefficient is varied. In particular, a cohesion of 10 kPa marks the threshold between conical‐ and parabolic‐shaped craters. The two‐layer model shows that the interface between the two layers would be exposed at the observed depth of 100 m when an intermediate value (~200 m) for the upper fractured layer is set. We have also found that the truncated‐cone morphology of Linné might originate from an incomplete collapse of the crater wall, as the breccia lens remains clustered along the crater walls, while the high‐albedo deposit on the crater floor can be interpreted as a very shallow lens of fallout breccia. The modeling analysis allows us to derive important clues on the impactor size (under the assumption of a vertical impact and collision velocity equal to the mean value), and on the approximate, large‐scale preimpact target properties. Observations suggest that these large‐scale material properties likely include some important smaller scale variations, disclosed as subtle morphological steps in the crater walls. Furthermore, the modeling results allow advancing some hypotheses on the geological evolution of the Mare Serenitatis region where Linné crater is located (unit S14). We suggest that unit S14 has a thickness of at least a few hundreds of meters up to about 400 m.