SHIA_Landslide: a distributed conceptual and physically based model to forecast the temporal and spatial occurrence of shallow landslides triggered by rainfall in tropical and mountainous basins

Landslides are a main cause of human and economic losses worldwide. For this reason, landslide hazard assessment and the capacity to predict this phenomenon have been topics of great interest within the scientific community for the implementation of early warning systems. Although several models have been proposed to forecast shallow landslides triggered by rainfall, few models have incorporated geotechnical factors into a complete hydrological model of a basin that can simulate the storage and movement of rainwater through the soil profile. These basin and full hydrological models have adopted a physically based approach. This paper develops a conceptual and physically based model called open and distributed hydrological simulation and landslides—SHIA_Landslide (Simulación HIdrológica Abierta, or SHIA, in Spanish)—that is supported by geotechnical and hydrological features occurring on a basin-wide scale in tropical and mountainous terrains. SHIA_Landslide is an original and significant contribution that offers a new perspective with which to analyse shallow landslide processes by incorporating a comprehensive distributed hydrological tank model that includes water storage in the soil coupled with a classical analysis of infinite slope stability under saturated conditions. SHIA_Landslide can be distinguished by the following: (i) its capacity to capture surface topography and effects concerning the subsurface flow; (ii) its use of digital terrain model (DTM) to establish the relationships among cells, geomorphological parameters, slope angle, direction, etc.; (iii) its continuous simulation of rainfall data over long periods and event simulations of specific storms; (iv) its consideration of the effects of horizontal and vertical flow; and (vi) its inclusion of a hydrologically complete water process that allows for hydrological calibration. SHIA_Landslide can be combined with real-time rainfall data and implemented in early warning systems.     

Large slope deformations detection and monitoring along shores of the Potrerillos dam reservoir,Argentina, based on a small-baseline InSAR approach

The Argentina National Road 7 that crosses the Andes Cordillera within the Mendoza province to connect Santiago de Chile and Buenos Aires is particularly affected by natural hazards requiring risk management. Integrated in a research plan that intends to produce landslide susceptibility maps, we aimed in this study to detect large slope movements by applying a satellite radar interferometric analysis using Envisat data, acquired between 2005 and 2010. We were finally able to identify two large slope deformations in sandstone and clay deposits along gentle shores of the Potrerillos dam reservoir, with cumulated displacements higher than 25 mm in 5 years and towards the reservoir. There is also a body of evidences that these large slope deformations are actually influenced by the seasonal reservoir level variations. This study shows that very detailed information, such as surface displacements and above all water level variation, can be extracted from spaceborne remote sensing techniques; nevertheless, the limitations of InSAR for the present dataset are discussed here. Such analysis can then lead to further field investigations to understand more precisely the destabilising processes acting on these slope deformations.     

Drivers of interannual and intra‐annual variability of dissolved organic carbon concentration in the River Thames between 1884 and 2013

The world's longest record of river water quality (River Thames—130 years) provides a unique opportunity to understand fluvial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations dynamics. Understanding riverine DOC variability through long‐term studies is crucial to capture patterns and drivers influencing sources of DOC at scales relevant for decision making. The Thames basin (United Kingdom) has undergone massive land‐use change, as well as increased urbanisation and population during the period considered. We aimed to investigate the drivers of intra‐annual to interannual DOC variability, assess the variability due to natural and anthropogenic factors, and understand the causes for the increased DOC variability over the period. Two approaches were used to achieve these aims. The first method was singular spectrum analysis, which was used to reconstruct the major oscillatory modes of DOC, hydroclimatic variables, and atmospheric circulation patterns and to visualise the interaction between these variables. The second approach used was generalised additive modelling, which was used to investigate other non‐natural drivers of DOC variability. Our study shows that DOC variability increased by 80% over the data period, with the greatest increase occurring from the beginning of World War II onwards. The primary driver of the increase in DOC variability was the increase in the average value of fluvial DOC over the period of record, which was itself linked to the increase in basin population and diffuse DOC sources to the river due to land‐use and land‐management changes. Seasonal DOC variability was linked to streamflow and temperature. Our study allows to identify drivers of fluvial intra‐annual and interannual DOC variability and therefore empowers actions to reduce high DOC concentrations.     

Local structural relaxation around Co2+ along the hardystonite–Co-?kermanite melilite solid solution

Six pure compounds belonging to the hardystonite (Ca₂ZnSi₂O₇)–Co-?kermanite (Ca₂CoSi₂O₇) solid solution were investigated by the combined application of X-ray powder diffraction and electronic absorption spectroscopy. Structural refinements of the XRPD data revealed a negative excess volume of mixing due to the single isovalent substitution of Co for Zn in the tetrahedral site. In agreement with the diffraction data, deconvolution of the optical spectra showed a progressive decreasing of the crystal field strength parameter 10Dq moving toward the Co-?kermanite end-member, meaning that the local cobalt–oxygen bond distance, $ \langle {\text{Co}}{-}{\text{O}}\rangle^{\text{local}} $ , increased along the join with the amount of cobalt. The calculated structural relaxation coefficient around the fourfold coordinated Co²⁺ in the Ca₂(Zn_1?x Co _x )Si₂O₇ join was ε?=?0.69, very far from the one predicted by the Vegard’s law (ε?=?0) and at variance with ε?=?0.47 previously found for tetrahedrally coordinated Co²⁺ in gahnite–Co-aluminate spinel solid solution. This difference is consistent with the largest constraints existing on the spinel structure, based on cubic closest packing, compared to the more flexible layered melilite structure.     

Melilite-type and melilite-related compounds: structural variations along the join Sr2?xBaxMgSi2O7 (0?≤?x?≤?2) and high-pressure behavior of the two end-members

The structural variations along the solid solution Sr_2−x Ba _x MgSi₂O₇ (0 ≤ x ≤ 2), combined to the high-pressure characterization of the two end-members, have been studied. A topological change from the tetragonal (melilite-type) to the monoclinic (melilite-related) structure along the join Sr₂MgSi₂O₇ (e.g., P[`4]2₁ m P\bar{4}2_{1} m )–Ba₂MgSi₂O₇ (e.g., C2/c) occurs with a Ba content higher than 1.6 apfu. Favored in the crystallization from a melt, the tetragonal form has a tetrahedral sheet topology exclusively based on five-membered rings, which provide a regular “4 up + 4 down” ligand arrangement. In contrast, the melilite-related structure, favored by solid-state reaction synthesis, is made by alternating six- and four-membered tetrahedral rings, which give an asymmetric arrangement of alternated “5 up + 3 down” and “3 up + 5 down” ligands around Sr or Ba. This latter configuration is characterized by an additional degree of freedom with Ba polyhedra hosted in the interlayer with a more irregular and compact coordination and longer Ba–O bond distances. Further insights into the relationships between the two melilite typologies were achieved by investigating the in situ high-pressure behavior of these systems. The synchrotron high-pressure experiments allowed to calculate the elastic moduli for the Sr melilite-type end-member and for the Ba monoclinic polymorph (Sr₂MgSi₂O₇: K _T0 = 107, K _a=b  = 121, and K _c  = 84 GPa; m-Ba₂MgSi₂O₇: K _T0 = 85, K _a  = 96, K _b  = 72, and K _c  = 117 GPa) and compare them with those reported in the literature for ?kermanite (Ca₂MgSi₂O₇). The results show that, although the volume of Ba polyhedron in tetragonal polymorphs is larger than in the monoclinic forms, the interlayer compressibility is significantly lower in the former structures due to the occurrence of very short Ba–O distances. This unfavored Ba environment also makes tetragonal Ba₂MgSi₂O₇ a metastable phase at room conditions, possibly favored by high pressure. However, no phase transition occurs from monoclinic to tetragonal form due to kinetic hindrance in reconstructing the sheet topology.     

Production of amorphous hydrated impure magnesium carbonate through ex situ carbonation

The evaluation of the feasibility of ex situ carbonation in landfills utilizing raw natural substances (namely serpentinites as Mg-source and the CO₂-rich fraction of biogas as C-source) was tested through a laboratory procedure comprising three steps. The first step is the acid attack of a serpentinite at 70 °C, by means of HCl 2 M, to get MgCl₂-rich solutions. Attacks of different durations were performed to evaluate the time needed. The second step is the neutralization of the MgCl₂-rich solution by addition of concentrated ammonia. The third (carbonation) step is mixing of the neutralized MgCl₂-rich solution with a solution of ammonium carbonate. This was produced in a landfill by absorption of CO₂ contained in biogas in a solution of ammonia. The neutralization of acid MgCl₂-rich solutions caused the precipitation of ferrihydrite with secondary ammonium carnallite and salammoniac, whereas abundant precipitation of Amorphous Hydrated Impure Magnesium Carbonate (AHIMC), sometimes with minor nesquehonite, occurred in the third step. This solid carbonate acts as a stable CO₂ sink up to 380 °C. The geochemical behavior of some minor elements was also investigated during the experimental processes revealing that Al, Cr and Ni were removed during neutralization (second step), in contrast to Ca which remained in the circumneutral MgCl₂-rich solution and entered into the structure of AHIMC. During the carbonation step, precipitation of artinite, hydromagnesite, lansfordite, magnesite and nesquehonite was thermodynamically impossible as the aqueous phase was undersaturated with respect to these solid phases upon separation of AHIMC.     

Mission-constrained design drivers and technical solutions for the MAGIA satellite

The Mission MAGIA (Missione Altimetrica Geofisica GeochImica lunAre) was proposed in the framework of the ??Bando per Piccole Missioni?? of ASI (Italian Space Agency) in 2007. The mission was selected for a phase A study by ASI on February 7th 2008. The tight budget allocation, combined with quite ambitious scientific objectives, set challenging requirements for the satellite design. The paper gives a fast overview of the payloads complement and of the mission-constrained design drivers, including cost minimization, risk reduction, and AIT flexibility. The spacecraft architecture is then outlined, along with an overview of the key subsystems and trade-offs. Some details are given of a Moon gravitometric experiment based on a mother?Cdaughter satellite configuration with the daughter being a subsatellite released from the MAGIA satellite and intended to circle the Moon at a very low altitude. Budgets are appended at the end of the paper showing the key study results.     

Spatio-temporal analysis of rockfall pre-failure deformation using Terrestrial LiDAR

We present a long-term spatio-temporal analysis of rock slope evolution using a Terrestrial LiDAR aiming to improve our understanding of the link between pre-failure deformation and the spatial prediction of rockfalls. We monitored the pilot study area located at the Puigcercós cliff (Catalonia, Spain) over a period of 1,705 days and detected the deformation of nine different cliff regions together with a high rockfall activity. An exact match was observed between the progressively deformed areas and the regions recently affected by three of the highest magnitude rockfall events, demonstrating a causal relationship between pre-failure deformation and rockfall occurrence. These findings allowed us to make a forward spatial prediction of future failures, hypothesizing a high probability of failure in the six remaining regions. We observed an exponential acceleration of the deformation close to failure, in accordance with tertiary creep theory. However, the temporal analysis of the deformed areas showed a complex and variable behavior, so no exact prediction of the date of failure can yet be made. Our findings have broadened our understanding of the pre-failure behavior of rockfalls and have clear implications for the future implementation of early warning systems.