Computing near coastal tidal dynamics from observations and a numerical model

A two-dimensional vertically integrated model of the North Sea is used to compute the distribution of M₂ and M₄ tidal elevations and currents over the region. Comparison of computed and observed elevations and currents in the area shows that the model can accurately reproduce the M₂ tide in the North Sea, although there are difficulties with the M₄ tide particularly in the northern North Sea.Comparison between model and a large number of observations collected in a shallow water region off the east coast of England, revealed that the model can accurately reproduce the tides even in near coastal regions, where model resolution problems can occur. Comparisons of computed and observed M₂ tidal energy fluxes in this region, show that model and observations agree to within the order of 10% (the error associated with the necessary interpolation of the observations in order to compute the energy flux).The problem of computing energy dissipation in the area by subtracting the energy fluxes into and out of the region is shown to be ill-conditioned in that the energy dissipation in the area is comparable to the error in the energy flux. Consequently for the sea region considered here it is not meaningful to compare this energy budget with energy dissipation due to bottom friction.Energy dissipation for the whole of the North Sea is computed using the numerical model and the geographical distribution of dissipation due to bottom friction is given for the M₂ tide.     

Is Ursa Major II the progenitor of the Orphan Stream?

Prominent in the 'Field of Streams'– the Sloan Digital Sky Survey map of substructure in the Galactic halo – is an 'Orphan Stream' without obvious progenitor. In this numerical study, we show a possible connection between the newly found dwarf satellite Ursa Major II (UMa II) and the Orphan Stream. We provide numerical simulations of the disruption of UMa II that match the observational data on the position, distance and morphology of the Orphan Stream. We predict the radial velocity of UMa II as −100 km s⁻¹, as well as the existence of strong velocity gradients along the Orphan Stream. The velocity dispersion of UMa II is expected to be high, though this can be caused both by a high dark matter content or by the presence of unbound stars in a disrupted remnant. However, the existence of a gradient in the mean radial velocity across UMa II provides a clear-cut distinction between these possibilities. The simulations support the idea that some of the anomalous, young halo globular clusters like Palomar 1 or Arp 2 or Ruprecht 106 may be physically associated with the Orphan Stream.     

WASP-1b and WASP-2b: two new transiting exoplanets detected with SuperWASP and SOPHIE

We have detected low-amplitude radial-velocity variations in two stars, USNO-B1.0 1219–0005465 (GSC  02265–00107 = WASP–1  ) and USNO-B1.0 0964–0543604 (GSC  00522–01199 = WASP–2  ). Both stars were identified as being likely host stars of transiting exoplanets in the 2004 SuperWASP wide-field transit survey. Using the newly commissioned radial-velocity spectrograph SOPHIE at the Observatoire de Haute-Provence, we found that both objects exhibit reflex orbital radial-velocity variations with amplitudes characteristic of planetary-mass companions and in-phase with the photometric orbits. Line-bisector studies rule out faint blended binaries as the cause of either the radial-velocity variations or the transits. We perform preliminary spectral analyses of the host stars, which together with their radial-velocity variations and fits to the transit light curves yield estimates of the planetary masses and radii. WASP-1b and WASP-2b have orbital periods of 2.52 and 2.15 d, respectively. Given mass estimates for their F7V and K1V primaries, we derive planet masses 0.80–0.98 and 0.81–0.95 times that of Jupiter, respectively. WASP-1b appears to have an inflated radius of at least 1.33 R _Jup, whereas WASP-2b has a radius in the range 0.65–1.26 R _Jup.     

Late Quaternary paleoclimate of western Alaska inferred from fossil chironomids and its relation to vegetation histories

Fossil Chironomidae assemblages (with a few Chaoboridae and Ceratopogonidae) from Zagoskin and Burial Lakes in western Alaska provide quantitative reconstructions of mean July air temperatures for periods of the late-middle Wisconsin (～39,000–34,000 cal yr B.P.) to the present. Inferred temperatures are compared with previously analyzed pollen data from each site summarized here by indirect ordination. Paleotemperature trends reveal substantial differences in the timing of climatic warming following the late Wisconsin at each site, although chronological uncertainty exists. Zagoskin Lake shows early warming beginning at about 21,000 cal yr B.P., whereas warming at Burial Lake begins ～4000 years later. Summer climates during the last glacial maximum (LGM) were on average ～3.5 °C below the modern temperatures at each site. Major shifts in vegetation occurred from ～19,000 to 10,000 cal yr B.P. at Zagoskin Lake and from ～17,000 to 10,000 cal yr B.P. at Burial Lake. Vegetation shifts followed climatic warming, when temperatures neared modern values. Both sites provide evidence of an early postglacial thermal maximum at ～12,300 cal yr B.P. These chironomid records, combined with other insect-based climatic reconstructions from Beringia, indicate that during the LGM: (1) greater continentality likely influenced regions adjacent to the Bering Land Bridge and (2) summer climates were, at times, not dominated by severe cold.     

On the heat budget of the Arabian Sea

This study analyzes the heat budget of the Arabian Sea using satellite-derived sea-surface temperature (SST) from 1985 to 1995 along with other data sets. For a better understanding of air–sea interaction, canonical average monthly fields representing the spatial and temporal structure of the various components of the heat balance of the Arabian Sea are constructed from up to 30 years of monthly atmospheric and oceanic data. The SST over the Arabian Sea is not uniform and continually evolves with time. Cooling occurs over most of the basin during November through January and May through July, with the greatest cooling in June and July. Warming occurs over most of the basin during the remainder of the year, with the greatest warming occurring in March and September. Results indicate that the sign of the net heat flux is strongly dependent on the location and month. The effects of net heat flux and penetrative solar radiation strongly influence the change in SST during February and are less important during August and September. Horizontal advection acts to cool the sea surface during the northeast monsoon months. During the southwest monsoon horizontal advection of surface waters warms the SST over approximately the southern half of the basin, while the advection of upwelled water from the Somalia and Oman coasts substantially cools the northern basin. The central Arabian Sea during the southwest monsoon is the only area where the change in SST is balanced by the entrainment and turbulent diffusion at the base of the mixed layer. Agreement between the temporal change in the satellite-derived SST and the change calculated from the conservation of heat equation is surprisingly good given the errors in the measured variables and the bulk formula parameters. Throughout the year, monthly results over half of the basin agree within 3°. Considering that the SST changes between 8° and 12° over the year, this means that our results explain from 62% to 75% of the change in SST over 56% of the Arabian Sea. Two major processes contribute to the discrepancy in the change in SST calculated according to the heat budget equation and the change in SST derived from satellite observations. The first is the effect of the horizontal advection term. The position of the major eddies and currents during the southwest monsoon greatly affects the change in SST due to the large gradient in temperature between the cold upwelled waters along the Somali coast to the warm waters in the interior of the basin. The second major process is the thermocline effect. In areas of shallow mixed-layer depth, high insolation and wind speeds of either less than 3 m/s or greater than 15 m/s, the bulk formulae parameterization of the surface heat fluxes is inappropriate.     

Barchan dune asymmetry: Observations from Mars and Earth

Barchan dune asymmetry refers to the extension of one barchan limb downwind. It is a common dune form on Earth and also occurs on Mars and Titan. A new classification of barchan limbs is presented where three types of limb morphology are identified: linear, kinked and beaded. These, along with other dune-scale morphological signatures, are used to identify three of the causes of barchan asymmetry on Mars: bi-directional winds, dune collision and the influence of inclined topography.The potential for specific dune asymmetric morphologies to indicate aspects of the formative wind regime on planetary surfaces is shown. For example, the placement of dune limbs can indicate the general direction and relative strength of formative oblique winds; an extreme barchan limb length may indicate a long duration oblique wind; a kinked limb may be evidence of the passage of a storm; beaded limbs may represent surface-wave instabilities caused by an increase in wind energy parallel to the dune. A preliminary application of these signatures finds evidence for bi-modal winds on Mars. However, these and other morphological signatures of wind direction and relative strength should be applied to planetary landforms with caution as more than one process (e.g., bi-modal winds and collision) may be operating together or sequentially on the dunefield. In addition, analysis should be undertaken at the dunefield scale and not on individual dunes. Finally, morphological data should be acquired from similar-scale dunes within a dunefield.In addition to bi-modal wind regimes on Mars, the frequent parallel alignment of the extended barchan limb to the dune suggests that dune collision is also an important cause of asymmetry on Mars. Some of the more complex dunefield patterns result from a combination of dune collision, limb extension and merging with downwind dunes.Dune asymmetric form does not inhibit dune migration in the Namib Desert or on Mars. Data from the Namib suggest that dune migration rates are similar for symmetric and asymmetric dunes. Further modeling and field studies are needed to refine our understanding of the potential range of limb and dune morphologies that can result from specific asymmetry causes.     

Swift observations of the X-ray and UV evolution of V2491 Cyg (Nova Cyg 2008 No. 2)

We present extensive, high-density Swift observations of V2491 Cyg (Nova Cyg 2008 No. 2). Observing the X-ray emission from only one day after the nova discovery, the source is followed through the initial brightening, the super-soft source phase and back to the pre-outburst flux level. The evolution of the spectrum throughout the outburst is demonstrated. The UV and X-ray light curves follow very different paths, although changes occur in them around the same times, indicating a link between the bands. Flickering in the late-time X-ray data indicates the resumption of accretion. We show that if the white dwarf (WD) is magnetic, it would be among the most magnetic known; the lack of a periodic signal in our later data argues against a magnetic WD, however. We also discuss the possibility that V2491 Cyg is a recurrent nova, providing recurrence time-scale estimates.     

Fracture control of ground water flow and water chemistry in a rock aquitard

There are few studies on the hydrogeology of sedimentary rock aquitards although they are important controls in regional ground water flow systems. We formulate and test a three-dimensional (3D) conceptual model of ground water flow and hydrochemistry in a fractured sedimentary rock aquitard to show that flow dynamics within the aquitard are more complex than previously believed. Similar conceptual models, based on regional observations and recently emerging principles of mechanical stratigraphy in heterogeneous sedimentary rocks, have previously been applied only to aquifers, but we show that they are potentially applicable to aquitards. The major elements of this conceptual model, which is based on detailed information from two sites in the Maquoketa Formation in southeastern Wisconsin, include orders of magnitude contrast between hydraulic diffusivity (K/S(s)) of fractured zones and relatively intact aquitard rock matrix, laterally extensive bedding-plane fracture zones extending over distances of over 10 km, very low vertical hydraulic conductivity of thick shale-rich intervals of the aquitard, and a vertical hydraulic head profile controlled by a lateral boundary at the aquitard subcrop, where numerous surface water bodies dominate the shallow aquifer system. Results from a 3D numerical flow model based on this conceptual model are consistent with field observations, which did not fit the typical conceptual model of strictly vertical flow through an aquitard. The 3D flow through an aquitard has implications for predicting ground water flow and for planning and protecting water supplies.     

A hybrid artificial neural network-numerical model for ground water problems

Numerical models constitute the most advanced physical-based methods for modeling complex ground water systems. Spatial and/or temporal variability of aquifer parameters, boundary conditions, and initial conditions (for transient simulations) can be assigned across the numerical model domain. While this constitutes a powerful modeling advantage, it also presents the formidable challenge of overcoming parameter uncertainty, which, to date, has not been satisfactorily resolved, inevitably producing model prediction errors. In previous research, artificial neural networks (ANNs), developed with more accessible field data, have achieved excellent predictive accuracy over discrete stress periods at site-specific field locations in complex ground water systems. In an effort to combine the relative advantages of numerical models and ANNs, a new modeling paradigm is presented. The ANN models generate accurate predictions for a limited number of field locations. Appending them to a numerical model produces an overdetermined system of equations, which can be solved using a variety of mathematical techniques, potentially yielding more accurate numerical predictions. Mathematical theory and a simple two-dimensional example are presented to overview relevant mathematical and modeling issues. Two of the three methods for solving the overdetermined system achieved an overall improvement in numerical model accuracy for various levels of synthetic ANN errors using relatively few constrained head values (i.e., cells), which, while demonstrating promise, requires further research. This hybrid approach is not limited to ANN technology; it can be used with other approaches for improving numerical model predictions, such as regression or support vector machines (SVMs).