Atmospheric response to deep-sea injections of fossil-fuel carbon dioxide

The possibility of controlling atmospheric carbon dioxide accumulation and attendant climatic effects from fossil-fuel burning by diverting a fraction of the combustion product and injecting it into the deep-ocean, as proposed by Marchetti, is analyzed using an atmosphere/mixed layer/diffusive deep-ocean model for the carbon cycle. The model includes the nonlinear buffering of CO₂ at the air/sea interface, and considers the long term trends associated with consuming an assumed fossil-fuel reserve equivalent to 7.09 × 10¹⁵ kg carbon as a logistic function of time as in the projections of Siegenthaler and Oeschger, except that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are computed for five alternate strategies: (a) 100% injected into atmosphere, (b) 50% injected at oceanic depth of 1500 m and 50% into atmosphere, (c) 50% injected at sea floor (4000 m) and 50% into atmosphere, (d) 100% at 1500 m depth and (e) 100% at sea floor. Since no carbon leaves the system, all runs approached the same post-fossil fuel equilibrium after several thousand years, C _a - 1150 ppm, almost four times the pre-fossil fuel value (- 300 ppm). But the transient response of these cases showed a marked variation ranging from a peak overshoot value of 2800 ppm in the year 2130 for 100% atmospheric injection to a slight decrease to the pre-fossil fuel 300 ppm lasting till 2300 with a subsequent slow approach to equilibrium for the 100% deep-ocean injection. The implications of these results for an oceanic injection strategy to mitigate the climatic impact of fossil-fuel CO₂ is discussed, as are the ingredients of a second generation carbon cycle model for carrying out such forecasts on an engineering design basis.     

Performance of ENSEMBLES regional climate models over Central Europe using various metrics

We show the evaluation of ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalysis ERA40 over a region centered at the Czech Republic. Attention is paid especially to the model ALADIN-CLIMATE/CZ, being used as the basis of the new climate change scenarios simulation for the Czech Republic. The validation criteria used here are based on monthly or seasonal mean air temperature and precipitation. We concentrate not only on spatiotemporal mean values but also on temporal standard deviation, inter-annual variability, the mean annual cycle, and the skill of the models to represent the observed spatial patterns of these quantities. Model ALADIN-CLIMATE/CZ performs quite well in comparison to the other RCMs; we find its performance satisfactory for further use for impact studies. However, it is also shown that the results of evaluation of the RCMs’ skill in simulating observed climate strongly depend on the criteria incorporated for the evaluation.     

Flood effects on phosphorus immobilisation in a river water filled pit lake—Case study Lake Goitsche (Germany)

Between 1999 and 2002, a former open-cast mine was filled with river water forming the recent Lake Goitsche. During filling initially acid water was neutralised. Phosphorus (P) imported from Mulde River was nearly completely removed from the water column by co-precipitation with iron (Fe) and aluminium (Al) and deposited in the sediment.During extremely high waters of the Mulde River in 2002, a dike breach facilitated a second high import of P into Lake Goitsche with suspended and dissolved matter. The analysis of total phosphorus (TP), however, showed that P again had been eliminated from the water body a few months after the flood event. Sediment investigations before filling with river water, during filling, and after the flood event were used to analyse the process of P immobilisation in a lake with acid mine drainage history.The ratios of Fe to soluble reactive P (SRP) of sediment pore water were up to three orders of magnitudes higher than in natural lakes and can serve as an indicator for potential internal P loading from sediments. The SRP concentrations at the oxic/anoxic boundary were near or below the limit of quantification (< 0.2 μmol/L). Fe and manganese (Mn) redox cycling were responsible for hindering P dissolution from sediment to lake water.Finally it can be stated, that the risk of eutrophication for such a lake seems to be low.