Improved water-level forecasting for the Northwest European Shelf and North Sea through direct modelling of tide, surge and non-linear interaction

In real-time operational coastal forecasting systems for the northwest European shelf, the representation accuracy of tide–surge models commonly suffers from insufficiently accurate tidal representation, especially in shallow near-shore areas with complex bathymetry and geometry. Therefore, in conventional operational systems, the surge component from numerical model simulations is used, while the harmonically predicted tide, accurately known from harmonic analysis of tide gauge measurements, is added to forecast the full water-level signal at tide gauge locations. Although there are errors associated with this so-called astronomical correction (e.g. because of the assumption of linearity of tide and surge), for current operational models, astronomical correction has nevertheless been shown to increase the representation accuracy of the full water-level signal. The simulated modulation of the surge through non-linear tide–surge interaction is affected by the poor representation of the tide signal in the tide–surge model, which astronomical correction does not improve. Furthermore, astronomical correction can only be applied to locations where the astronomic tide is known through a harmonic analysis of in situ measurements at tide gauge stations. This provides a strong motivation to improve both tide and surge representation of numerical models used in forecasting. In the present paper, we propose a new generation tide–surge model for the northwest European Shelf (DCSMv6). This is the first application on this scale in which the tidal representation is such that astronomical correction no longer improves the accuracy of the total water-level representation and where, consequently, the straightforward direct model forecasting of total water levels is better. The methodology applied to improve both tide and surge representation of the model is discussed, with emphasis on the use of satellite altimeter data and data assimilation techniques for reducing parameter uncertainty. Historic DCSMv6 model simulations are compared against shelf wide observations for a full calendar year. For a selection of stations, these results are compared to those with astronomical correction, which confirms that the tide representation in coastal regions has sufficient accuracy, and that forecasting total water levels directly yields superior results.     

Energetic Charged Particles Above Thunderclouds

The French government has committed to launch the satellite TARANIS to study transient coupling processes between the Earth’s atmosphere and near-Earth space. The prime objective of TARANIS is to detect energetic charged particles and hard radiation emanating from thunderclouds. The British Nobel prize winner C.T.R. Wilson predicted lightning discharges from the top of thunderclouds into space almost a century ago. However, new experiments have only recently confirmed energetic discharge processes which transfer energy from the top of thunderclouds into the upper atmosphere and near-Earth space; they are now denoted as transient luminous events, terrestrial gamma-ray flashes and relativistic electron beams. This meeting report builds on the current state of scientific knowledge on the physics of plasmas in the laboratory and naturally occurring plasmas in the Earth’s atmosphere to propose areas of future research. The report specifically reflects presentations delivered by the members of a novel Franco-British collaboration during a meeting at the French Embassy in London held in November 2011. The scientific subjects of the report tackle ionization processes leading to electrical discharge processes, observations of transient luminous events, electromagnetic emissions, energetic charged particles and their impact on the Earth’s atmosphere. The importance of future research in this area for science and society, and towards spacecraft protection, is emphasized.     

Petrophysical and geochemical constraints on alteration processes in granites

The hydrothermal alteration of granites has large influence on their petrophysical properties. To reveal the impact of alteration on magnetic and porosity properties of granites we have conducted a complex study of effects of two largely independent alteration processes, related to chemically different fluids, in granites of the Vysoký Kámen stock (the Krudum granite body, Czech Republic). It includes the whole-rock geochemical, magnetic and pore-space characterization. The alkali feldspathization resulted in decomposition of Li-mica, quartz removal, depletion in mafic cations and growth of new alkali feldspars (albite, K-feldspar), decreasing the overall magnetic susceptibility and disrupting the pore space by its discontinuation. The preservation of the orientation of the principal susceptibility axes is likely related to insignificant influence of the feldspathization process on the paramagnetic and diamagnetic phases orientation acquired during the magma emplacement. The greisenization, on the other hand had considerably more significant effects on microstructure and physical properties of the granite. The microstructure was modified by the growth of large amounts of new phases (Li-mica, quartz and topaz). This changed the mineral density of the rock, the porosity, size and character of pores to larger, flatter and probably more connected. This led also to the complete reworking of the original anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility during the greisenization.     

Evaluating the performance of ground-based and remotely sensed near real-time rainfall fields from a hydrological perspective

Abstract

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) issues routine experimental, near real-time rainfall maps from daily raingauge networks, radar networks and satellite images, as well as merged rainfall fields. These products are potentially useful for near real-time forecasting, especially in areas of fast hydrological response, and also to simulate the “now state” of various hydrological state variables such as soil moisture content, streamflow, and reservoir inflows. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate their skill as inputs to hydrological simulations and, in particular, the skill of the merged field in terms of better hydrological results relative to the individual products. Rainfall fields derived from raingauge, radar, satellite, conditioned satellite and the merged (gauge/radar/satellite) were evaluated for two selected days with relatively high amounts of rainfall, as well as for a continuous period of 90 days in the Mgeni catchment, South Africa. Streamflows simulated with the ACRU model indicate that the use of raingauge as well as merged fields of satellite/raingauge and satellite/radars/raingauge provides relatively realistic rainfall results, without much difference in their hydrological outputs, whereas the radar and raw satellite information by themselves cannot be used in operational hydrological application in their current status.

Citation Ghile, Y., Schulze, R. & Brown, C. (2010) Evaluating the performance of ground-based and remotely sensed near real-time rainfall fields from a hydrological perspective. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(4), 497–511.     

Effects of CO2 on benthic biota: An in situ benthic chamber experiment in Storfjorden (Norway)

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) methods, either sub-seabed or in ocean depths, introduces risk of CO₂ leakage and subsequent interaction with the ecosystem. It is therefore important to obtain information on possible effects of CO₂. In situ CO₂ exposure experiments were carried out twice for 10 days during 2005 using a Benthic Chamber system at 400 m depth in Storfjorden, Norway. pCO₂ in the water above the sediment in the chambers was controlled at approximately 500, 5000 and 20,000 μatm, respectively. This article describes the experiment and the results from measured the biological responses within the chamber sediments. The results show effects of elevated CO₂ concentrations on biological processes such as increased nanobenthos density. Methane production and sulphate reduction was enhanced in the approximately 5000 μatm chamber.     

SLOPE EVOLUTION ON ABANDONED SPOIL BANKS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA

Unreclaimed strip mine dumps near Henryetta, Oklahoma were employed as a natural laboratory for the study of slope evolution. These dumps were created by similar technologies and from similar materials but at different times. Modern, 30-year-old and 60-year-old slopes were compared through morphometric analysis and by the direct measurement of current rates of denudation. Slope evolution may be generalized as slope decline. This was effected through reduction of the slope crest, burial of the slope foot, and extension of the upper convexity and lower concavity at the expense of the rectilinear main slope of the original mine dump. There was a progressive reduction in rates of surface erosion, and the balance between weathering and suffosion became skewed towards the latter on the oldest dumps.     

Direct dating of thick‐ and thin‐skin thrusts in the Peruvian Subandean zone through apatite (U–Th)/He and fission track thermochronometry

Although the structure of the central Peruvian Subandean zone is well defined, the timing of thrust‐related exhumation and Cenozoic sedimentation remain poorly constrained. In this study, we report new apatite (U–Th)/He (AHe) and fission track (AFT) ages from thrust‐belt and foreland strata along three published balanced cross sections. AHe data from the northern, thick‐skinned domain (i.e. Shira Mountain, Otishi Cordillera and Ucayali Basin) show young AHe ages (ranging from 2.6 ± 0.2 to 13.1 ± 0.8 Ma) compared with AFT ages (ranging from 101 ± 5 to 133 ± 11 Ma). In the southern Camisea Basin, where deformation is mainly thin‐skinned, AHe and AFT ages have been both reset and show young cooling ages (3.7 ± 0.8 Ma and 8 ± 2 Ma respectively). Using low‐temperature thermochronology data and the latest fission track annealing and He diffusion codes, the thermal history of the study area has been reconstructed using inverse modelling. This history includes two steps of erosion: Early Cretaceous and late Neogene, but only Neogene sedimentation and exhumation varies in the different sectors of the study area. From a methodological point of view, large AHe data dispersion point to the need for refinement of AHe damage and annealing models. The influence of grain chemistry on damage annealing, multiple age components and the possibility of fission tracks as traps for He need further consideration. For the central Peruvian Subandes, AHe and AFT ages combined with balanced cross sections emphasize the dominant control of Paleozoic inheritance rather than climate on Cenozoic infilling and exhumation histories. Finally, our data provide the first field example of how thick‐skinned thrust‐related deformation and exhumation in the Subandes can be directly dated through AHe thermochronology.     

Impact of fire on long-term vegetation dynamics of ombrotrophic peatlands in northwestern Québec,Canada

A 7000-year record of local fire history was reconstructed from three ombrotrophic peatlands in the James Bay lowlands (northwestern Québec, Canada) using a high-resolution analysis of macroscopic charcoal (long axis ≥ 0.5 mm). The impact of fire on vegetation changes was evaluated using detailed analysis of plant macrofossils. Compared to upland boreal forest, fire incidence in these Sphagnum-dominated bogs is rather low. Past fire occurrence seems to have been controlled primarily by internal processes associated with local hydroseral succession. Size of the peatland basin and distance from the well-drained forest soils also appear to be factors controlling fire occurrence. The impact of peatland fires on long-term vegetation succession appears negligible except in a forested bog, where it initiated the replacement of Sphagnum by mosses. In some circumstances, fire caused marked changes in the bryophyte assemblages over many decades. However, ombrotrophic peatland vegetation is generally resilient to surface fire.     

A protoceratopsid skeleton with an associated track from the Upper Cretaceous of Mongolia

The Djadokhta Formation of the Gobi Desert is known for the number and diversity of dinosaur and other vertebrate bones and skeletons found there, but only theropod, hadrosaur and supposed ankylosaurid footprints have been reported from this stratum. Dinosaur footprints are also noted from the Nemegt Formation, and occur as typical dinosaur track accumulations (tracksites). An articulated protoceratopsid skeleton - specimen ZPAL Mg D-II/3 - was collected by the Polish-Mongolian Expedition of 1965 from the Djadokhta Formation of Flaming Cliffs in Mongolia. Recently, the natural cast of a tetradactyl digitigrade footprint was found underneath the pelvic girdle while the skeleton and matrix were being prepared. This is possibly the first find of a dinosaur track in close association with an articulated skeleton. Although Protoceratops is an extremely common dinosaur in Mongolia, its footprints have never previously been reported from the Late Cretaceous of the Gobi Desert.     

Arsenic and antimony contamination of waters,stream sediments and soils in the vicinity of abandoned antimony mines in the Western Carpathians,Slovakia

Environmental contamination with As and Sb caused by past mining activities at Sb mines is a significant problem in Slovakia. This study is focused on the environmental effects of the 5 abandoned Sb mines on water, stream sediment and soil since the mines are situated in the close vicinity of residential areas. Samples of mine wastes, various types of waters, stream sediments, soils, and leachates of the mine wastes, stream sediments and selected soils were analyzed for As and Sb to evaluate their geochemical dispersion from the mines. Mine wastes collected at the mine sites contained up to 5166 mg/kg As and 9861 mg/kg Sb. Arsenic in mine wastes was associated mostly with Fe oxides, whereas Sb was present frequently in the form of individual Sb, Sb(Fe) and Fe(Sb) oxides. Waters of different types such as groundwater, surface waters and mine waters, all contained elevated concentrations of As and Sb, reaching up to 2150 μg/L As and 9300 μg/L Sb, and had circum-neutral pH values because of the buffering capacity of abundant Ca- and Mg-carbonates. The concentrations of Sb in several household wells are a cause for concern, exceeding the Sb drinking water limit of 5 μg/L by as much as 25 times. Some attenuation of the As and Sb concentrations in mine and impoundment waters was expected because of the deposition of metalloids onto hydrous ferric oxides built up below adit entrances and impoundment discharges. These HFOs contained >20 wt.% As and 1.5 wt.% Sb. Stream sediments and soils have also been contaminated by As and Sb with the peak concentrations generally found near open adits and mine wastes. In addition to the discharged waters from open adits, the significant source of As and Sb contamination are waste-rock dumps and tailings impoundments. Leachates from mine wastes contained as much as 8400 μg/L As and 4060 μg/L Sb, suggesting that the mine wastes would have a great potential to contaminate the downstream environment. Moreover, the results of water leaching tests showed that Sb was released from the solids more efficiently than As under oxidizing conditions. This might partly explain the predominance of Sb over As in most water samples.