Stochastic time-series simulation of wave parameters using ship observations

A stochastic simulation technique was used with ship wave observations, which form the largest world-wide data base of wave information. Twenty years of wave parameter (height, period, and direction) observations from the Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) were used as the input data. Simulations were compared to four years of wave parameters from a National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) data buoy near Monterey Bay, CA. The comparisons are satisfactory with differences mainly caused by biases between ship observations and buoy data. The stochastic simulation technique is attractive because it is computationally efficient and few decisions are required for its application. The applied techniques can be employed with global COADS data to simulate wave conditions at many world-wide locations where measurements and hindcasts by computer models do not exist.     

The reluctance of resource-users to adopt seasonal climate forecasts to enhance resilience to climate variability on the rangelands

As the impacts of climate-change on resource-dependent industries manifest, there is a commensurate effort to identify and implement strategies to reduce them. Yet, even when useful knowledge and tools exist, there can be poor adoption of adaptation strategies. We examine the reasons behind sub-optimal adoption of seasonal climate forecasts by graziers for managing climate variability. We surveyed 100 graziers in north-east Queensland, Australia and examined the influence of adaptive capacity, resource-dependency and forecast-perception on uptake. Technical perceptions were not important. Strategic skills, environmental awareness and social capital were. Results suggest that social factors (but not technical factors) are significant. These insights are important for adaptation planning and for maximising the resilience of communities and industries dependent on climate-sensitive resources.     

Analysis of a regional change in the sign of the SAM�Ctemperature relationship in Antarctica

This study examines regional atmospheric circulation changes associated with a reversal in the sign of the relationship between the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and near-surface temperatures at Halley station, East Antarctica, during the 1980s. We show that the key factor affecting the regional SAM?Ctemperature relationship (STR) is the relative magnitude of two climatological low pressure centres to the west and east of the area, which determines the source region of air masses advected into the locality. The principal difference affecting the STR is shown to be a trend towards a significantly weaker climatological low (higher pressure) at ~20°E during a positive phase of the SAM. Specifically, it is variations in the phase and magnitude of the wave number three patterns of atmospheric circulation, the non-annular component of the SAM, which are the principal factors governing the regional STR. A similar reversal is observed in the sign of the correlation between the SAM and oxygen-isotope values from an ice core located some 1,200?km east of Halley. This relationship is examined throughout the 20th Century, by comparing the isotope data to SAM reconstructions, and demonstrates marked decadal variability. Thus, these data suggest that switches in the STR are more likely to reflect natural variability in the long-wave patterns over the Southern Ocean rather than the influence of an anthropogenic forcing. This finding is important when considering the potential utility of Antarctic isotope data as a proxy for the SAM.     

Assessing the simulation and prediction of rainfall associated with the MJO in the POAMA seasonal forecast system

We assess the ability of the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) to simulate and predict weekly rainfall associated with the MJO using a 27-year hindcast dataset. After an initial 2-week atmospheric adjustment, the POAMA model is shown to simulate well, both in pattern and in intensity, the weekly-mean rainfall variation associated with the evolution of the MJO over the tropical Indo-Pacific. The simulation is most realistic in December?CFebruary (austral summer) and least realistic in March?CMay (austral autumn). Regionally, the most problematic area is the Maritime Continent, which is a common problem area in other models. Coupled with our previous demonstration of the ability of POAMA to predict the evolution of the large-scale structure of the MJO for up to about 3?weeks, this ability to simulate the regional rainfall evolution associated with the MJO translates to enhanced predictability of rainfall regionally throughout much of the tropical Indo-Pacific when the MJO is present in the initial conditions during October?CMarch. We also demonstrate enhanced prediction skill of rainfall at up to 3?weeks lead time over the north-east Pacific and north Atlantic, which are areas of pronounced teleconnections excited by the MJO-modulation of tropical Indo-Pacific rainfall. Failure to simulate and predict the modulation of rainfall in such places as the Maritime Continent and tropical Australia by the MJO indicates, however, there is still much room for improvement of the prediction of the MJO and its teleconnections.     

Weak coupling between sulfate reduction and the anaerobic oxidation of methane in methane-rich seafloor sediments during ex situ incubation

We investigated coupling between sulfate reduction (SR) and anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) by quantifying pore water geochemical profiles, determining rates of microbial processes, and examining microbial community structure at two sites within Mississippi Canyon lease block 118 (MC118) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Sediments from the northwest seep contained high concentrations of methane while sediments from the southwest seep contained methane, gaseous n-alkanes and liquid hydrocarbons and had abundant surficial accumulations of gas hydrate. Volumetric (21.5 μmol cm⁻³ day⁻¹) and integrated (1429 mmol m⁻² day⁻¹) rates of SR at MC118 in ex situ incubations are the highest reported thus far for seafloor environments. AOM rates were small in comparison, with volumetric rates ranging from 0.1 to 12.6 nmol cm⁻³ day⁻¹. Diffusion cannot adequately supply the sulfate required to support these high SR rates so additional mechanisms, possibly biological sulfide oxidation and/or downward advection, play important roles in supplying sulfate at these sites. The microbial communities at MC118 included sulfate-reducing bacteria phylogenetically associated with Desulfobacterium anilini, which is capable of complex hydrocarbon degradation. Despite low AOM rates, the majority of archaea identified were phylogenetically related to previously described methane oxidizing archaea. To evaluate whether weak coupling between SR and AOM occurs in habitats lacking the complex hydrocarbon milieu present at MC118, we compiled available SR and AOM rates and found that the global median ratio of SR to AOM was 10.7:1 rather than the expected 1:1. The global median integrated AOM rate was used to refine global estimates for AOM rates at cold seeps; these new estimates are only 5% of the previous estimate.     

Two observed consequences of penetration electric fields

The influence of penetration electric fields (PEF) on storm-time energetic particles in the inner magnetosphere and on the stability of plasma in the low-latitude ionosphere is widely recognized. We describe two consequences of PEFs, regularly observed during magnetic storms that indicate their persistence throughout the main phases. These are (1) the presence of equatorial plasma bubbles (EPB) across the evening local time sector during main phases and their absence throughout recovery, and (2) detections of low-energy ion precipitation in the dawn sector equatorward of the auroral electron boundary.     

Storm surge computations in estuarine and near-coastal regions: the Mersey estuary and Irish Sea area

An unstructured grid storm surge model of the west coast of Britain, incorporating a high-resolution representation of the Mersey estuary is used to examine storm surge dynamics in the region. The focus of the study is the major surge that occurred during the period 11–14 November 1977, which has been investigated previously using uniform grid finite difference models and a finite element model of the west coast of Britain. However, none of these models included the Mersey estuary. Comparison of solutions in the eastern Irish Sea with those computed with these earlier models showed that, away from the Liverpool Bay region, the inclusion of the Mersey estuary had little effect. However, at the entrance to the Mersey, its inclusion did influence the solution. By including a detailed representation of the Mersey estuary within the model, it was possible to conduct a detailed study of storm surge propagation in the Mersey, which had never previously been performed. This detailed study showed for the first time that the surge’s temporal variability within the estuary is influenced by surge elevation at its entrance. This varies with time as a function of spatial and temporal variations of wind stress over the west coast of Britain. Within the Mersey, calculations show that the spatial variability is mainly determined by changes in bottom topography, which had not been included in earlier finite difference models. However, since water depth is influenced by variations in tidal elevation, this, together with tide surge interaction through bottom friction and momentum advection, influences the surge. The ability of the finite element model to vary the mesh in near-shore regions to such an extent that it can resolve the Mersey and hence the impact of the Mersey estuary upon the Liverpool Bay circulation shows that it has distinct advantages over earlier finite difference models. In the absence of detailed measurements within the Mersey at the time of the surge, it was not possible to validate predicted surge elevations within the Mersey. However, significant insight into physical processes influencing the surge propagation down the estuary, its reflection and spatial/temporal variability could be gained.     

TAOS – The Taiwanese‐American Occultation Survey

The Taiwanese‐American Occultation Survey (TAOS) seeks to determine the number and size spectrum for small (∼3 km) bodies in the Kuiper Belt. This will be accomplished by searching for the brief occultations of bright stars (R ∼ 14) by these objects. We have designed and built a special purpose photometric monitoring system for this purpose. TAOS comprises four 50 cm telescopes, each equipped with a 2048 × 2048 pixel CCD camera, in a compact array located in the central highlands of Taiwan. TAOS will monitor up to 2 000 stars at 5 Hz. The system went into scientific operation in the autumn of 2005. (© 2006 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)