Wetland Loss Patterns and Inundation-Productivity Relationships Prognosticate Widespread Salt Marsh Loss for Southern New England

Tidal salt marsh is a key defense against, yet is especially vulnerable to, the effects of accelerated sea level rise. To determine whether salt marshes in southern New England will be stable given increasing inundation over the coming decades, we examined current loss patterns, inundation-productivity feedbacks, and sustaining processes. A multi-decadal analysis of salt marsh aerial extent using historic imagery and maps revealed that salt marsh vegetation loss is both widespread and accelerating, with vegetation loss rates over the past four decades summing to 17.3 %. Landward retreat of the marsh edge, widening and headward expansion of tidal channel networks, loss of marsh islands, and the development and enlargement of interior depressions found on the marsh platform contributed to vegetation loss. Inundation due to sea level rise is strongly suggested as a primary driver: vegetation loss rates were significantly negatively correlated with marsh elevation (r ²?=?0.96; p?=?0.0038), with marshes situated below mean high water (MHW) experiencing greater declines than marshes sitting well above MHW. Growth experiments with Spartina alterniflora, the Atlantic salt marsh ecosystem dominant, across a range of elevations and inundation regimes further established that greater inundation decreases belowground biomass production of S. alterniflora and, thus, negatively impacts organic matter accumulation. These results suggest that southern New England salt marshes are already experiencing deterioration and fragmentation in response to sea level rise and may not be stable as tidal flooding increases in the future.     

The reluctance of resource-users to adopt seasonal climate forecasts to enhance resilience to climate variability on the rangelands

As the impacts of climate-change on resource-dependent industries manifest, there is a commensurate effort to identify and implement strategies to reduce them. Yet, even when useful knowledge and tools exist, there can be poor adoption of adaptation strategies. We examine the reasons behind sub-optimal adoption of seasonal climate forecasts by graziers for managing climate variability. We surveyed 100 graziers in north-east Queensland, Australia and examined the influence of adaptive capacity, resource-dependency and forecast-perception on uptake. Technical perceptions were not important. Strategic skills, environmental awareness and social capital were. Results suggest that social factors (but not technical factors) are significant. These insights are important for adaptation planning and for maximising the resilience of communities and industries dependent on climate-sensitive resources.     

Tropical forcing of Australian extreme low minimum temperatures in September 2019

We explore the causes and predictability of extreme low minimum temperatures (T_min) that occurred across northern and eastern Australia in September 2019. Historically, reduced T_min is related to the occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and central Pacific El Niño. Positive IOD events tend to locate an anomalous anticyclone over the Great Australian Bight, therefore inducing cold advection across eastern Australia. Positive IOD and central Pacific El Niño also reduce cloud cover over northern and eastern Australia, thus enhancing radiative cooling at night-time. During September 2019, the IOD and central Pacific El Niño were strongly positive, and so the observed T_min anomalies are well reconstructed based on their historical relationships with the IOD and central Pacific El Niño. This implies that September 2019 T_min anomalies should have been predictable at least 1–2 months in advance. However, even at zero lead time the Bureau of Metereorolgy ACCESS-S1 seasonal prediction model failed to predict the anomalous anticyclone in the Bight and the cold anomalies in the east. Analysis of hindcasts for 1990–2012 indicates that the model's teleconnections from the IOD are systematically weaker than the observed, which likely stems from mean state biases in sea surface temperature and rainfall in the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans. Together with this weak IOD teleconnection, forecasts for earlier-than-observed onset of the negative Southern Annular Mode following the strong polar stratospheric warming that occurred in late August 2019 may have contributed to the T_min forecast bust over Australia for September 2019.

     

Geochronology of zircon megacrysts from nepheline-bearing gneisses as constraints on tectonic setting: implications for resetting of the U-Pb and Lu-Hf isotopic systems

Nepheline-bearing gneisses from the 75 km² Tambani body in the Mozambique Belt of southern Malawi, are miaskitic biotite-nepheline monzodiorites, reflecting an absence of K-feldspar, alkali amphiboles or pyroxenes, and contain euhedral zircon megacrysts up to 5 cm across. The zircons contain U = 1–1,860 ppm, Th = 0–2,170 ppm and Y = 400–1,100 ppm, and very low concentrations of all other measured trace elements except Hf (HfO₂ = 0.53–0.92 wt. %). Cathodoluminescence images reveal oscillatory sector growth zoning and no evidence for xenocrystic cores, indicating that the zircons represent primary magmatic crystallization products that have survived amphibolite grade metamorphism. U-Pb isotopic analyses (by TIMS) yield an upper intercept age of 730 ± 4 Ma (MSWD = 1.7), which we interpret as the time of magmatic crystallization of the zircons. This is coincident with 11 SHRIMP spot analyses, which yield a mean age of 729 ± 7 Ma (MSWD = 0.37). Metamorphism, at 522 ± 17 Ma as suggested by monazite, caused partial Pb-loss during local recrystallization of zircon. Lu-Hf isotopic data for three whole-rock samples of nepheline-bearing gneiss are collinear with those for zircon megacrysts, and correspond to an age of 584 ± 17 Ma (MSWD = 0.37. We interpret the Lu-Hf array to represent a mixing line defined by the Hf isotopic signature of primary zircon and that of the rock-forming minerals reset during metamorphic (re-)crystallization; hence the 584 Ma age is likely geologically meaningless. Given the well-defined association of nepheline syenites (and phonolitic volcanic equivalents) with continental rifting, we suggest that the Tambani body represents a magmatic product formed at 730 Ma during the break-up of the Rodinia supercontinent. The 522 Ma age is akin to other Pan-African metamorphic ages that record collisional suturing events during the final assembly of Gondwana. Zircon-bearing nepheline gneisses thus preserve a record of intra-continental rifting and of continental collision in southern Malawi.     

A comparison of theoreticalCIV emission line strengths with active region observations obtained with the Solar EUV Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS)

Theoretical line ratios involving 2s ² S - 3p ² P, 2p ² P - 3s ² S, and 2p ² S - 3d ² D transitions inCiv between 312 and 420 Å are presented. A comparison of these with solar active region observational data obtained during a rocket flight by the Solar EUV Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS) reveals good agreement between theory and experiment, with discrepancies that average only 22%. This provides experimental support for the accuracy of the atomic data adopted in the line ratio calculations, and also resolves discrepancies found previously when the theoretical results were compared with solar data from the S082A instrument on boardSkylab. The potential usefulness of theCIV line ratios as electron temperature diagnostics for the solar transition region is briefly discussed.     

The radio galaxy RC J1148+0455

Based on data from the MIT-GB-VLA 4850-MHz survey, we investigate the radio structure of RC J1148+0455 with a steep radio spectrum (α=?1.04) from the COLD catalog. The radio source consists of two components, each having a complex structure. We analyze an optical identification of the source by using 6-m telescope images. The centroid of the radio source falls on a group of eight galaxies at a 24 ^m level in R.     

A revised model for cycloid growth mechanics on Europa: Evidence from surface morphologies and geometries

Although a single model currently exists to explain the development of curved Europan cycloids, there have been no systematic studies of the range of morphologies and quantifiable geometric parameters of cycloidal features. We address variations in geometry along individual cycloid segments, characterizing differences in cusp styles and angles, and addressing the morphologic aspects of cycloid segments and cusps. In so doing, we illustrate how geometric and morphologic evidence imply a formation mechanism that differs from the existing model in several aspects. The current model states that cycloids are initiated as tensile fractures that grow in a curved path in response to rotating diurnal tidal stresses on Europa. However, the geometry of a cycloid cusp necessitates that shear stress was resolved onto the existing cycloid segment by the rotating diurnal stresses at the instant of cusp formation. Furthermore, we observe that cycloid cusps have a strikingly similar geometry to tailcracks that developed at the tips of many ridge-like strike-slip faults on Europa in response to shearing at the fault tip. We suggest that this similarity in geometries can be attributed to an identical formation mechanism whereby cycloid cusps form by a tailcracking process. We therefore present a revised, mechanically-based model for cycloid formation that retains the basic premise that crack growth is governed by diurnal stresses, but describes the development of cycloid cusps in response to resolved shear stresses at the tips of existing cycloid segments. The ratio of normal to shear stress at the time of tailcrack formation dictates the cusp angle and, over longer time periods, influences the morphologic evolution of the cycloid segment as it is repeatedly reworked by tidal stresses.