The use of airborne laser scanning to develop a pixel-based stratification for a verified carbon offset project

Background  

The voluntary carbon market is a new and growing market that is increasingly important to consider in managing forestland. Monitoring, reporting, and verifying carbon stocks and fluxes at a project level is the single largest direct cost of a forest carbon offset project. There are now many methods for estimating forest stocks with high accuracy that use both Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS) and high-resolution optical remote sensing data. However, many of these methods are not appropriate for use under existing carbon offset standards and most have not been field tested.     

Time-series analysis of multi-resolution optical imagery for quantifying forest cover loss in Sumatra and Kalimantan,Indonesia

Monitoring loss of humid tropical forests via remotely sensed imagery is critical for a number of environmental monitoring objectives, including carbon accounting, biodiversity, and climate modeling science applications. Landsat imagery, provided free of charge by the U.S. Geological Survey Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (USGS/EROS), enables consistent and timely forest cover loss updates from regional to biome scales. The Indonesian islands of Sumatra and Kalimantan are a center of significant forest cover change within the humid tropics with implications for carbon dynamics, biodiversity maintenance and local livelihoods. Sumatra and Kalimantan feature poor observational coverage compared to other centers of humid tropical forest change, such as Mato Grosso, Brazil, due to the lack of ongoing acquisitions from nearby ground stations and the persistence of cloud cover obscuring the land surface. At the same time, forest change in Indonesia is transient and does not always result in deforestation, as cleared forests are rapidly replaced by timber plantations and oil palm estates. Epochal composites, where single best observations are selected over a given time interval and used to quantify change, are one option for monitoring forest change in cloudy regions. However, the frequency of forest cover change in Indonesia confounds the ability of image composite pairs to quantify all change. Transient change occurring between composite periods is often missed and the length of time required for creating a cloud-free composite often obscures change occurring within the composite period itself. In this paper, we analyzed all Landsat 7 imagery with <50% cloud cover and data and products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to quantify forest cover loss for Sumatra and Kalimantan from 2000 to 2005. We demonstrated that time-series approaches examining all good land observations are more accurate in mapping forest cover change in Indonesia than change maps based on image composites. Unlike other time-series analyses employing observations with a consistent periodicity, our study area was characterized by highly unequal observation counts and frequencies due to persistent cloud cover, scan line corrector off (SLC-off) gaps, and the absence of a complete archive. Our method accounts for this variation by generating a generic variable space. We evaluated our results against an independent probability sample-based estimate of gross forest cover loss and expert mapped gross forest cover loss at 64 sample sites. The mapped gross forest cover loss for Sumatra and Kalimantan was 2.86% of the land area, or 2.86 Mha from 2000 to 2005, with the highest concentration having occurred in Riau and Kalimantan Tengah provinces.     

Measuring similarity between geospatial lifelines in studies of environmental health

Many epidemiological studies involve analysis of clusters of diseases to infer locations of environmental hazards that could be responsible for the disease. This approach is however only suitable for sedentary populations or diseases with small latency periods. For migratory populations and diseases with long latency periods, people may change their residential location between time of exposure and onset of ill health. For such situations, clusters are diffused and diluted by in- and out-migration and may become very difficult to detect. One way to address the problem of diffused clusters is to include in analyses not only current residential locations, but all past locations at which cases might have been exposed to environmental hazardous. In this paper, we assume that a persons residential history provides such information and represent it through a discrete geospatial lifeline data model. Clusters of similar geospatial lifelines represent individuals who have similar residential histories—and therefore represent people who are more likely to have had similar environmental exposure histories. We therefore introduce a lifeline distance (dissimilarity) measure to detect clusters of cases, providing a basis for revealing possible regions in space-time where environmental hazards might have existed in the past. The ability of the measure to distinguish cases from controls is tested using two sets of synthetically generated cases and controls. Results indicate that the measure is able to consistently distinguish between populations of cases and controls with statistically significant results. The lifeline distance measure consistently outperforms another measure which uses only the distance between subjects residences at time of diagnosis. However, the advantages of using the entire residential history are only partly realized, since the ability to distinguish between cases and controls is only moderately better for the lifeline distance function. Future work is needed to investigate modifications to the inter-lifeline distance measure in order to enhance the potential of this approach to detect locations of environmental hazards over the lifespan.This project is supported by grant number 1 R01 ES09816-01 from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, NIH. Its contents are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the NIEHS or NIH. We wish to thank Peter Rogerson for helpful discussions of the migration models, and the anonymous reviewers for pointing out areas where the paper could be improved.     

A Hybrid Multi-Agent/Spatial Interaction Model System for Petrol Price Setting

This paper examines the use of multi‐agent simulations (MAS) to model the petrol market. The development of a purely agent based model for petrol prices is presented. Failings within this model are discussed and an alternative strategy for controlling the price of each petrol station based on population of customers is considered. Individual level modelling of customers is too computationally intensive; therefore a spatial interaction model was used to estimate the sales and linked to the agent system to create a hybrid model. To evaluate how effective this hybrid model was, a comparison was made with an existing data set of real petrol prices collected over a two month period. This was achieved both statistically and visually with the use of a Geographical Information System (GIS). Experimentation revealed that the hybrid model outperformed the agent model. Investigation into the behaviour and sensitivity of the system (for example, how prices diffuse spatially) was undertaken by means of idealised simulations.     

Remote sensing documentation of historic rangeland remediation treatments in southern New Mexico

The Jornada Experimental Range and the New Mexico State University Chihuahuan Desert Rangeland Research Center are fruitful areas to study the long-term effects of rangeland remediation treatments which started in the 1930s. A number of diverse manipulations were completed under the direction of federal agency and university scientists, and abundant remote sensing imagery is available to assist in relocating the treatments and evaluating their success. This is particularly important because few of the treatments were maintained following the loss of scientific personnel coinciding with the start of World War II, and most records of Civilian Conservation Corps scientific work were lost with the disbanding of the agency in 1942. Aerial photography, which was systematically used to image the United States beginning in the 1930s, can be used to identify types of treatments, measure areal coverage, estimate longevity, and help plan locations for new experiments. No long-lasting vegetation response could be determined for contour terraces, brush water spreaders, strips grubbed free of shrubs (despite the fact that these strips have remained visible for 65 years), and mechanical rootplowing and seeding. Distinct positive, long-term vegetation responses could be seen in aerial photos for water retention dikes, certain fenced exclosures, and some boundaries where different land management practices meet. It appears from both aerial photos and existing conventional records that experimental manipulation of rangelands has often been ineffective on the landscape scale because treatments are not performed over large enough contiguous areas and hydrological and ecological processes overwhelm the treatments. In addition, treatments are not maintained over time, treatment evaluation periods are sometimes too short, multi-purpose treatments are not used to maximize effects, and treatments are often not located in appropriate sites.     

Global Analysis of Changes in Water Supply Yields and Costs under Climate Change: A Case Study in China

Using China as a case study, a methodology is presented to estimate the changes in yields and costs of present and future water production systems under climate change scenarios. Yield is important to consider because it measures the actual supply available from a river basin. Costs are incurred in enhancing the natural yield of river basins by the construction and operation of reservoirs and ground water pumping systems. The interaction of ground and surface waters within a river basin and instream flow maintenance are also modeled. The water demands considered are domestic, irrigation, and instream flow needs. We found that under climate change the maximum yields of some basins in China may increase or decrease, depending upon location, and that in some basins it may cost significantly more or it may not be possible to meet the demands. While our results for China could be improved with more hydrologic and economic data, we believe that the cost curves developed have suitable accuracy for initial analysis of water supply costs in Integrated Assessment Models.     

Probabilistic spatial risk assessment of heat impacts and adaptations for London

High temperatures and heatwaves can cause large societal impacts by increasing health risks, mortality rates, and personal discomfort. These impacts are exacerbated in cities because of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, and the high and increasing concentrations of people, assets and economic activities. Risks from high temperatures are now widely recognised but motivation and implementation of proportionate policy responses is inhibited by inadequate quantification of the benefits of adaptation options, and associated uncertainties. This study utilises high spatial resolution probabilistic projections of urban temperatures along with projections of demographic change, to provide a probabilistic risk assessment of heat impacts on urban society. The study focuses on Greater London and the surrounding region, assessing mortality risk, thermal discomfort in residential buildings, and adaptation options within an integrated framework. Climate change is projected to increase future heat-related mortality and residential discomfort. However, adjusting the temperature response function by 1–2 °C, to simulate adaptation and acclimatisation, reduced annual heat related mortality by 32–69 % across the scenarios tested, relative to a no adaptation scenario. Similar benefits of adaptation were seen for residential discomfort. The study also highlights additional benefits in terms of reduced mortality and residential discomfort that mitigating the urban heat island, by reducing albedo and anthropogenic heat emissions, could have.     

An annotated bibliography on the greenhouse effect and climate change

The literature on climate change from an enhanced greenhouse effect is large and growing rapidly. The problems considered are increasingly inter-disciplinary. For these reasons many workers will find useful pointers to the literature in the fields interacting with, but outside of, their own. We present here an annotated bibliography on issues relating to changes in the concentrations of Earth's greenhouse gases. The areas covered include theory and numerical modelling of climate change; cycles involving carbon dioxide and other radiatively important trace gases; observations of climate change and the problems associated with those observations; paleoclimatology as it relates to previous changes in the greenhouse gases; the impacts on and interactions with managed and natural ecosystems from climate change; policy issues related to climate change and to the limitation of climate change; history of the study of the greenhouse effect; and some other causes of climate change. Selection of papers has been made to facilitate rapid introduction to most of the important issues and findings in an area. Over 600 articles, reports, and books are discussed.     

Extreme subsidence in the Agulhas-Benguela air mass transition

Analysis of three-dimensional wind profiles recorded by an acoustic sounder near Cape Town has indicated that extreme subsidence (-35 cm s^-1) is a mean feature throughout the atmospheric boundary layer (50–1000m) during summertime southerly winds. Over the SW Cape coast, the atmospheric subsidence translates into a N-S gradient of the mean summer water deficit (-20 to -32 cm month^-1). The rapid drying out of the air mass along a northward trajectory is linked to a number of factors including synoptic-scale divergence of the surface wind and the effects of the local orography which produce a hydraulic jump of the southerly wind. The along-coast reduction in sea surface temperature provides a major constraint on the height of the moist marine layer. As the depth of the marine air mass shrinks, its potential for inland penetration becomes limited. In addition, dry air is entrained towards the surface as evidenced by aerial survey data. A model is formulated which indicates the importance of the surface heat fluxes in reducing the depth of the Agulhas air mass as it passes northward over the SW tip of Africa during summer.