Spatially explicit models for exploring COVID‐19 lockdown strategies

This article describes two spatially explicit models created to allow experimentation with different societal responses to the COVID‐19 pandemic. We outline the work to date on modeling spatially explicit infective diseases and show that there are gaps that remain important to fill. We demonstrate how geographical regions, rather than a single, national approach, are likely to lead to better outcomes for the population. We provide a full account of how our models function, and how they can be used to explore many different aspects of contagion, including: experimenting with different lockdown measures, with connectivity between places, with the tracing of disease clusters, and the use of improved contact tracing and isolation. We provide comprehensive results showing the use of these models in given scenarios, and conclude that explicitly regionalized models for mitigation provide significant advantages over a “one‐size‐fits‐all” approach. We have made our models, and their data, publicly available for others to use in their own locales, with the hope of providing the tools needed for geographers to have a voice during this difficult time.     

A test of Sporormiella representation as a predictor of megaherbivore presence and abundance

Spores of the dung fungus Sporormiella have been suggested to indicate the presence, perhaps also the abundance of past megaherbivore populations. Nonetheless, basic studies demonstrating a correlation between Sporormiella concentration in lacustrine sediments and modern herbivore abundance are lacking. This study of Sporormiella representation in grazed and ungrazed landscapes provides supporting evidence for the application of Sporormiella as an indicator of megaherbivore presence and abundance in ancient landscapes. However, Sporormiella representation is spatially sensitive to the distance from the dung source. In lakes where Sporomiella are abundant in shoreline sediments, they decline sharply with increasing distance from the lake edge. Although this study provides supporting evidence for the application of Sporormiella as a proxy for herbivore presence and abundance, independent proxies should be applied in conjunction with Sporormiella to control for changes in lake size.     

Provenance and microprobe assays of phyllite‐tempered ceramics from the uplands of central Arizona

The ceramics in use across a broad upland zone of central Arizona during the early Classic period (ca. A.D. 1100–1300) were characterized by a lack of mineralogical variability; nearly all of the clay containers were tempered with one rock type, phyllite. Consequently, nearly all of the upland pottery is assigned to a single pottery type, Wingfield Plain. This compositional uniformity has frustrated ceramic provenance studies, and, as a result, little has been learned previously about the organization of ceramic production and exchange in the upland territory. There are, however, considerable and interpretable chemical differences in the phyllite‐tempered wares, as shown with microanalyses of the temper fragments and pottery clay fractions with an electron microprobe. The chemical patterning is useful for investigating issues pertaining to the upland zone, including the organization of ceramic manufacture, community arrangements, and pottery transactions during a time of prevalent hostilities in central Arizona. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Stable carbon isotopes (δ<Superscript>13</Superscript>C) of total organic carbon and long-chain <Emphasis Type="Italic">n</Emphasis>-alkanes as proxies for climate and environmental change in a sediment core from Lake Petén-Itzá, Guatemala

Sediment core PI-6 from Lake Petén Itzá, Guatemala, possesses an ~85-ka record of climate and environmental change from lowland Central America. Variations in sediment lithology suggest large and abrupt changes in precipitation during the last glacial and deglacial periods, and into the early Holocene. We measured stable carbon isotope ratios of total organic carbon and long-chain n-alkanes from the core, the latter representing a largely allochthonous (terrestrial) source of organic matter, to reveal past shifts in the relative proportion of C₃–C₄ terrestrial biomass. We sought to test whether stable carbon isotope results were consistent with other paleoclimate proxies measured in the PI-6 core, and if extraction and isotope analysis of n-alkanes is warranted. The largest δ¹³C variations are associated with Heinrich Events. Carbon isotope values in sediments deposited during the last glacial maximum indicate moderate precipitation with little fluctuation. The deglacial was a period of pronounced climate variability, e.g. a relatively warm and moist Bølling–Allerød, but a cool and dry Younger Dryas. Arid periods of the deglacial were inferred from samples with high δ¹³C values in total organic carbon, which reflect times of greater proportions of C₄ plants. These inferences are supported by stable isotope measurements on ostracod shells and relative abundance of grass pollen from the same depths in core PI-6. Similar trends in carbon stable isotopes measured on bulk organic carbon and n-alkanes suggest that carbon isotope measures on bulk organic carbon in sediments from this lake are sufficient to infer past climate-driven shifts in local vegetation.     

Improving Automated Geological Logging of Drill Holes by Incorporating Multiscale Spatial Methods

Mathematical Geosciences - Manually interpreting multivariate drill hole data is very time-consuming, and different geologists will produce different results due to the subjective nature of...