The sea ice mass budget of the Arctic and its future change as simulated by coupled climate models

Arctic sea ice mass budgets for the twentieth century and projected changes through the twenty-first century are assessed from 14 coupled global climate models. Large inter-model scatter in contemporary mass budgets is strongly related to variations in absorbed solar radiation, due in large part to differences in the surface albedo simulation. Over the twenty-first century, all models simulate a decrease in ice volume resulting from increased annual net melt (melt minus growth), partially compensated by reduced transport to lower latitudes. Despite this general agreement, the models vary considerably regarding the magnitude of ice volume loss and the relative roles of changing melt and growth in driving it. Projected changes in sea ice mass budgets depend in part on the initial (mid twentieth century) ice conditions; models with thicker initial ice generally exhibit larger volume losses. Pointing to the importance of evolving surface albedo and cloud properties, inter-model scatter in changing net ice melt is significantly related to changes in downwelling longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation. These factors, along with the simulated mean and spatial distribution of ice thickness, contribute to a large inter-model scatter in the projected onset of seasonally ice-free conditions.     

Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: a critical review of the literature

The effects of the anomalously warm European summer of 2003 highlighted the importance of understanding the relationship between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality. This review is an extension of the brief evidence examining this relationship provided in the IPCC’s Assessment Reports. A comprehensive and critical review of the literature is presented, which highlights avenues for further research, and the respective merits and limitations of the methods used to analyse the relationships. In contrast to previous reviews that concentrate on the epidemiological evidence, this review acknowledges the inter-disciplinary nature of the topic and examines the evidence presented in epidemiological, environmental health, and climatological journals. As such, present temperature–mortality relationships are reviewed, followed by a discussion of how these are likely to change under climate change scenarios. The importance of uncertainty, and methods to include it in future work, are also considered.     

TNOs are Cool: A Survey of the Transneptunian Region

Over one thousand objects have so far been discovered orbiting beyond Neptune. These trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) represent the primitive remnants of the planetesimal disk from which the planets formed and are perhaps analogous to the unseen dust parent-bodies in debris disks observed around other main-sequence stars. The dynamical and physical properties of these bodies provide unique and important constraints on formation and evolution models of the Solar System. While the dynamical architecture in this region (also known as the Kuiper Belt) is becoming relatively clear, the physical properties of the objects are still largely unexplored. In particular, fundamental parameters such as size, albedo, density and thermal properties are difficult to measure. Measurements of thermal emission, which peaks at far-IR wavelengths, offer the best means available to determine the physical properties. While Spitzer has provided some results, notably revealing a large albedo diversity in this population, the increased sensitivity of Herschel and its superior wavelength coverage should permit profound advances in the field. Within our accepted project we propose to perform radiometric measurements of 139 objects, including 25 known multiple systems. When combined with measurements of the dust population beyond Neptune (e.g. from the New Horizons mission to Pluto), our results will provide a benchmark for understanding the Solar debris disk, and extra-solar ones as well.     

Capture effects in carbonaceous material: A Stardust analogue study

Abstract— It is reasonable to expect that cometary samples returned to Earth by the Stardust space probe have been altered to some degree during capture in aerogel at 6.1 km/s. In order to help interpret the measured structure of these particles with respect to their original cometary nature, a series of coal samples of known structure and chemical composition was fired into aerogel at Stardust capture velocity. This portion of the study analyzed the surfaces of aerogel‐embedded particles using Raman spectroscopy. Results show that particle surfaces are largely homogenized during capture regardless of metamorphic grade or chemical composition, apparently to include a devolatilization step during capture processing. This provides a possible mechanism for alteration of some aliphatic compound‐rich phases through devolatilization of cometary carbonaceous material followed by re‐condensation within the particle. Results also show that the possibility of alteration must be considered for any particular Stardust grain, as examples of both graphitization and amorphization are found in the coal samples. It is evident that Raman G band (～1580 cm^?1) parameters provide a means of characterizing Stardust carbonaceous material to include identifying those grains which have been subjected to significant capture alteration.     

Diffusion of Ar in muscovite

Hydrothermal treatment of closely sized muscovite aggregates in a piston-cylinder apparatus induced ⁴⁰Ar^∗ loss that is revealed in ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar step heating spectra. Age spectra and Arrhenius data, however, differ from that expected from a single diffusion length scale. A numerical model of episodic loss assuming the presence of multiple diffusion domains yields excellent fits between synthetic and actual degassing spectra. We used this model to isolate ⁴⁰Ar^∗ loss from the grains that remained intact during hydrothermal treatment at 10 kbar permitting calculation of diffusion coefficients in the temperature range 730-600 °C. Diffusion data generated in this manner yield an activation energy (E) of 63 ± 7 kcal/mol and frequency factor (D_o) of 2.3  cm²/s. Experiments at 20 kbar yield diffusivities lower by about an order of magnitude and correspond to an activation volume of ∼14 cm³/mol. Together, these parameters predict substantially greater retentivity of Ar in muscovite than previously assumed and correspond to a closure temperature (T_c) of 425 °C for a 100 μm radius grain cooling at 10 °C/Ma at 10 kbar (T_c = 405 °C at 5 kbar. Age and log (r/r_o) spectra for the run products show strong correlations indicating that muscovites can retain Ar diffusion boundaries and mechanisms that define their natural retentivity during vacuum step heating. This may permit the application of high resolution, continuous ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar thermochronology to low grade, regionally metamorphosed terranes.     

Sedimentary and faunal events revealed by a revised correlation of post‐glacial Hirnantian (Late Ordovician) strata in the Welsh Basin,UK

The discovery of a previously unrecognized unconformity and of new faunas in the type Llandovery area underpins a revised correlation of Hirnantian strata in mid Wales. This has revealed the sedimentary and faunal events which affected the Lower Palaeozoic Welsh Basin during the global rise in sea level that followed the end‐Ordovician glacial maximum and has allowed their interpretation in the context of local and global influences. In peri‐basinal shelfal settings the onset of post‐glacial deepening is recorded by an unfossiliferous, transgressive shoreface sequence (Cwm Clyd Sandstone and Garth House formations) which rests unconformably on Rawtheyan rocks, deformed during an episode of pre‐Hirnantian tectonism. In the deep water facies of the basin centre, this same sequence boundary is now recognized as the contact between fine‐grained, re‐sedimented mudstones and an underlying regressive sequence of turbidite sandstones and conglomerates; it is at a level lower than previously cited and calls into question the established lithostratigraphy. In younger Hirnantian strata, graptolites associated with the newly recognized Ystradwalter Member (Chwefri Formation) demonstrate that this distal shelf unit correlates with the persculptus graptolite‐bearing Mottled Mudstone Member of the basinal succession. Together these members record an important macrofaunal recolonization of the Welsh Basin and mark a key event in the post‐glacial transgression. Further deepening saw the establishment of a stratified water column and the imposition of anoxic bottom water conditions across the basin floor. These post‐glacial Hirnantian events are consistent with the re‐establishment of connections between a silled Welsh Basin and the open Iapetus Ocean. However, a comparison with other areas suggests that each event records a separate deepening episode within a pulsed glacio‐eustatic transgression, while also reflecting changes in post‐glacial climate and patterns of oceanic circulation and associated biotic flux. British Geological Survey © NERC 2009. All rights reserved.     

Palaeolithic and Quaternary research in the Trent Valley (UK): contributions by early collectors

A brief history is presented here of the activities of the three most notable collectors of Lower and Middle Palaeolithic artefacts from Quaternary river terrace deposits in the Trent Valley, derived from archival material that has been largely ignored by previous research. Two, Mr. Fred W.G. Davey and Mr. George F. Turton, were local amateur collectors who did not publish the results of their work themselves and were reliant on collaboration with established archaeologists. The third, Mr. A. Leslie Armstrong, was an archaeologist best known for his work at Creswell Crags and Grimes Graves. Armstrong also made many Palaeolithic discoveries in the Trent Valley but published few details of his own material. Although such details of early Palaeolithic research in the Midlands and North of Britain are predominantly of historical interest only, they nonetheless provide a number of insights into the apparent lack of interest shown in areas north of the ‘Severn-Wash Line’ by collectors of Palaeolithic artefacts. Importantly, the dataset assembled by the Trent Valley Palaeolithic Project (TVPP) and summarized here is the only complete record of the known artefacts and archival material from the Trent, a proportion of which is now unavailable to the research community, having entered unknown private ownership since being studied. The second part of the paper relates this early research to current knowledge of the British Palaeolithic at its most northern fringes and to recent developments in reconstructing the Quaternary evolution of the River Trent.     

A test of Sporormiella representation as a predictor of megaherbivore presence and abundance

Spores of the dung fungus Sporormiella have been suggested to indicate the presence, perhaps also the abundance of past megaherbivore populations. Nonetheless, basic studies demonstrating a correlation between Sporormiella concentration in lacustrine sediments and modern herbivore abundance are lacking. This study of Sporormiella representation in grazed and ungrazed landscapes provides supporting evidence for the application of Sporormiella as an indicator of megaherbivore presence and abundance in ancient landscapes. However, Sporormiella representation is spatially sensitive to the distance from the dung source. In lakes where Sporomiella are abundant in shoreline sediments, they decline sharply with increasing distance from the lake edge. Although this study provides supporting evidence for the application of Sporormiella as a proxy for herbivore presence and abundance, independent proxies should be applied in conjunction with Sporormiella to control for changes in lake size.