Quantifying Organization of Atmospheric Turbulent Eddy Motion Using Nonlinear Time Series Analysis

Using three methods from nonlinear dynamics, we contrast the level of organization inthe vertical wind velocity (w) time series collected in the atmospheric surface layer(ASL) and the canopy sublayer (CSL) for a wide range of atmospheric stability ()conditions. The nonlinear methods applied include a modified Shannon entropy, waveletthresholding, and mutual information content. Time series measurements collected overa pine forest, a hardwood forest, a grass-covered forest clearing, and a bare soil, desertsurface were used for this purpose. The results from applying all three nonlinear timeseries measures suggest that w in the CSL is more organized than that in the ASL, and that as the flows in both layers evolve from near-neutral to near-convective conditions, the level of organization increases. Furthermore, we found that the degree of organization in w associated with changes in is more significant than the transition from CSL to ASL.     

Regional climate change experiments over southern South America. I: present climate

We present an analysis of a regional simulation of present-day climate (1981–1990) over southern South America. The regional model MM5 was nested within time-slice global atmospheric model experiments conducted by the HadAM3H model. We evaluate the capability of the model in simulating the observed climate with emphasis on low-level circulation patterns and surface variables, such as precipitation and surface air mean, maximum and minimum temperatures. The regional model performance was evaluated in terms of seasonal means, seasonal cycles, interannual variability and extreme events. Overall, the regional model is able to capture the main features of the observed mean surface climate over South America, its seasonal evolution and the regional detail due to topographic forcing. The observed regional patterns of surface air temperatures (mean, maxima and minima) are well reproduced. Biases are mostly within 3°C, temperature being overestimated over central Argentina and underestimated in mountainous regions during all seasons. Biases in northeastern Argentina and southeastern Brazil are positive during austral spring season and negative in other seasons. In general, maximum temperatures are better represented than minimum temperatures. Warm bias is larger during austral summer for maximum temperature and during austral winter for minimum temperature, mainly over central Argentina. The broad spatial pattern of precipitation and its seasonal evolution are well captured; however, the regional model overestimates the precipitation over the Andes region in all seasons and in southern Brazil during summer. Precipitation amounts are underestimated over the La Plata basin from fall to spring. Extremes of precipitation are better reproduced by the regional model compared with the driving model. Interannual variability is well reproduced too, but strongly regulated by boundary conditions, particularly during summer months. Overall, taking into account the quality of the simulation, we can conclude that the regional model is capable in reproducing the main regional patterns and seasonal cycle of surface variables. The present reference simulation constitutes the basis to examine the climate change simulations resulting from the A2 and B2 forcing scenarios which are being reported in a separate study.     

Can agriculture support climate change adaptation, greenhouse gas mitigation and rural livelihoods? insights from Kenya

Changes in the agriculture sector are essential to mitigate and adapt to climate change, meet growing food demands, and improve the livelihoods of poor smallholder producers. What agricultural strategies are needed to meet these challenges? To what extent are there synergies among these strategies? This paper examines these issues for smallholder producers in Kenya across several agroecological zones. Several practices emerge as triple wins, supporting climate adaptation, greenhouse gas mitigation, and profitability goals. In particular, integrated soil fertility management and improved livestock feeding are shown to provide multiple benefits across all agroecological zones examined. Triple wins of other agricultural practices are limited to specific agroecological zones. Irrigation and soil and water conservation, for example, are essential for adaptation, mitigation, and profitability in arid areas. The results suggest that agricultural investments targeted toward these triple-win strategies will have the greatest payoff in terms of increased resilience of farm and pastoralist households and global climate change mitigation. To reap the benefits of triple-win strategies will require that policymakers, researchers, and practitioners move away from isolated approaches focused on either adaptation or mitigation or rural income generation toward a more holistic assessment of joint strategies as well as their tradeoffs and synergies.     

Investigating a Hierarchy of Eulerian Closure Models for Scalar Transfer Inside Forested Canopies

Modelling the transfer of heat, water vapour, and CO₂ between the biosphere and the atmosphere is made difficult by the complex two-way interaction between leaves and their immediate microclimate. When simulating scalar sources and sinks inside canopies on seasonal, inter-annual, or forest development time scales, the so-called well-mixed assumption (WMA) of mean concentration (i.e. vertically constant inside the canopy but dynamically evolving in time) is often employed. The WMA eliminates the need to model how vegetation alters its immediate microclimate, which necessitates formulations that utilize turbulent transport theories. Here, two inter-related questions pertinent to the WMA for modelling scalar sources, sinks, and fluxes at seasonal to inter-annual time scales are explored: (1) if the WMA is to be replaced so as to resolve this two-way interaction, how detailed must the turbulent transport model be? And (2) what are the added predictive skills gained by resolving the two-way interaction vis-à-vis other uncertainties such as seasonal variations in physiological parameters. These two questions are addressed by simulating multi-year mean scalar concentration and eddy-covariance scalar flux measurements collected in a Loblolly pine (P. taeda L.) plantation near Durham, North Carolina, U.S.A. using turbulent transport models ranging from K-theory (or first-order closure) to third-order closure schemes. The multi-layer model calculations with these closure schemes were contrasted with model calculations employing the WMA. These comparisons suggested that (i) among the three scalars, sensible heat flux predictions are most biased with respect to eddy-covariance measurements when using the WMA, (ii) first-order closure schemes are sufficient to reproduce the seasonal to inter-annual variations in scalar fluxes provided the canonical length scale of turbulence is properly specified, (iii) second-order closure models best agree with measured mean scalar concentration (and temperature) profiles inside the canopy as well as scalar fluxes above the canopy, (iv) there are no clear gains in predictive skills when using third-order closure schemes over their second-order closure counterparts. At inter-annual time scales, biases in modelled scalar fluxes incurred by using the WMA exceed those incurred when correcting for the seasonal amplitude in the maximum carboxylation capacity (V _{cmax, 25}) provided its mean value is unbiased. The role of local thermal stratification inside the canopy and possible computational simplifications in decoupling scalar transfer from the generation of the flow statistics are also discussed.

“The tree, tilting its leaves to capture bullets of light; inhaling, exhaling; its many thousand stomata breathing, creating the air”. Ruth Stone, 2002, In the Next Galaxy

     

Analysis of uncertainties in future climate projections for South America: comparison of WCRP-CMIP3 and WCRP-CMIP5 models

This paper identifies two sources of uncertainties in model projections of temperature and precipitation: internal and inter-model variability. Eight models of WCRP-CMIP3 and WCRP-CMIP5 were compared to identify improvements in the reliability of projections from new generation models. While no significant differences are observed between both datasets, some improvements were found in the new generation models. For example, in summer CMIP5 inter-model variability of temperature was lower over northeastern Argentina, Paraguay and northern Brazil, in the last decades of the 21st century. Reliability of temperature projections from both sets of models is high, with signal to noise ratio greater than 1 over most of the study region. Although no major differences were observed in both precipitation datasets, CMIP5 inter-model variability was lower over northern and eastern Brazil in summer (especially at the end of the 21st century). Reliability of precipitation projections was low in both datasets. However, the signal to noise ratio in new generation models was close to 1, and even greater than 1 over eastern Argentina, Uruguay and southern Brazil in some seasons.     

Fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment considering local site effects for the portfolio of buildings in Medellín,Colombia

A fully probabilistic seismic risk analysis using a comprehensive approach is conducted for Medellin, the second largest city of Colombia, using a building by building database constructed and complemented from aerial images, considering characteristics such as building use categories, socio-economic levels and replacement values. The seismic hazard used for the analysis corresponds to the most updated study available in the country with the same model that was included in the national building code maps definition. Spectral transfer functions are determined for each of the seismic microzonation zones in order to take into account the dynamic soil response and amplification effects in the risk analysis. Several building types are defined for the city and individual vulnerability functions are assigned to each of them. Risk results are presented in the state of the art metrics such as the loss exceedance curve, probable maximum losses for different return periods, average annual losses and risk maps. The obtained results can be classified by use and socio-economic sectors as well as by structural systems that may help the stakeholders to identify where the risk concentrates.     

2012 Emilia earthquake,Italy: reinforced concrete buildings response

Data of the Italian National Institute of Statistics are collected aimed at characterizing Reinforced Concrete (RC) building stock of the area struck by the 2012 Emilia earthquake (number of storeys, age of construction, structural typology). Damage observations, collected right after the event in reconnaissance reports, are shown and analyzed emphasizing typical weaknesses of RC buildings in the area. The evolution of seismic classification for Emilia region and RC buildings’ main characteristics represent the input data for the assessment of non-structural damage of infilled RC buildings, through a simplified approach (FAST method), based on EMS-98 damage scale. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) capacities for the first three damage states of EMS-98 are compared with registered PGA in the epicentral area. Observed damage and damage states evaluated for the PGA of the event, in the epicentral area, are finally compared. The comparison led to a fair agreement between observed and numerical data.     

An overview of physical and ecological processes in the Rio de la Plata Estuary

The Rio de la Plata is a large-scale estuary located at 35°S on the Atlantic coast of South America. This system is one of the most important estuarine environments in the continent, being a highly productive area that sustains valuable artisanal and coastal fisheries in Uruguay and Argentina. The main goals of this paper are to summarize recent knowledge on this estuary, integrating physical, chemical and biological studies, and to explore the sources and ecological meaning of estuarine variability associated to the stratification/mixing alternateness in the estuary. We summarized unpublished data and information from several bibliographic sources. From study cases representing different stratification conditions, we draw a holistic view of physical patterns and ecological processes of the stratification/mixing alternateness. This estuary is characterized by strong vertical salinity stratification most of the time (the salt-wedge condition). The head of the estuary is characterized by a well-developed turbidity front. High turbidity constrains their photosynthesis. Immediately offshore the turbidity front, water becomes less turbid and phytoplankton peaks. As a consequence, trophic web in the estuary could be based on two sources of organic matter: phytoplankton and plant detritus. Dense plankton aggregations occur below the halocline and at the tip of the salt wedge. The mysid Neomysis americana, a key prey for juvenile fishes, occurs all along the turbidity front. A similar spatial pattern is shown by one of the most abundant benthic species, the clam Mactra isabelleana. These species could be taken advantage of the particulate organic matter and/or phytoplankton concentrated near the front. Nekton is represented by a rich fish community, with several fishes breeding inside the estuary. The most important species in terms of biomass is Micropogonias furnieri, the main target for the coastal fisheries of Argentina and Uruguay. Two processes have been identified as producing partially stratified conditions: persistent moderate winds (synoptic scale), or low freshwater runoff (interannual scale). Less frequently, total mixing of the salt wedge occurs after several hours of strong winds. The co-dominance of diatoms (which proliferate in highly turbulent environments) and red tides dinoflagellates and other bloom taxa (better adapted to stratified conditions), would indicate great variability in the turbulence strength, probably manifested as pulses. Microplankton and ichthyoplankton assemblages defined for the stratified condition are still recognized during the partially mixed condition, but in this case they occupy the entire water column: vertical structure of the plankton featuring the stratified condition become lost. Bottom fish assemblages, on the contrary, shows persistence under the different stratification conditions, though the dominant species of the groups show some variations. Summarizing, the Río de la Plata Estuary is a highly variable environment, strongly stratified most of the time but that can be mixed in some few hours by strong wind events that occur in an unpredictable manner, generating stratification/partially mixed (less frequently totally mixed) pulses all along the year. At larger temporal scales, the system is under the effects of river discharge variations associated to the ENSO cycle, but their ecological consequences are not fully studied.