Landscape-scale analysis of ecosystem risk and returns: A new tool for ICZM

Management of the coastal zone often focuses on “islands” of high value ecosystems, in terms of economic value or conservation. However, integrated management requires landscape-level analysis of all ecosystem values. The biodiversity portfolio analysis (BPA) method is derived from the logic used in share (equity) portfolio management in terms of balancing within a portfolio the returns with the risks. Optimising the returns from a share portfolio, or a suite of ecosystems in a landscape, is dependent on the relationship between the units in terms of risk and return. Three case studies are then presented to test the applicability of the BPA method at the international (North West Europe), regional (Durham Heritage Coast, UK) and local (part of South Uist, Outer Hebrides, UK) spatial scale. The Biodiversity Portfolio Analysis for NW Europe showed that risk and return were highly correlated in the studied Member States. The ranking of risk and return, with the highest first, was Ireland > UK > France=Netherlands > Belgium. For these Member States the risks to ecosystem service provision were positively correlated with GNI (r=0.97, P<0.01); suggesting that the higher the economic importance of coastal and marine resources in a Member State the more at risk the resources are. The regional and local case studies were more focussed on providing information on which to base Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) decision making; both case studies used stakeholder participation to determine risks and returns. The conclusions from these two case studies show how the BPA method can be useful in terms of setting ICZM priorities and in addressing local coastal issues. The BPA involves making a number of assumptions, however, it does provide coastal managers with a potential tool to strategically plan due to increased awareness of the interaction between the ecosystems in the portfolio.There is a need for such techniques, which involve stakeholder participation and which create objective outcomes, to support the implementation of ICZM.     

The structure and evolution of the coastal migrant fishery of Kenya

The current study was carried out over a period of one year to characterise the coastal migrant fishery of Kenya. The study looked at gears and vessels used, and ownership, demographic factors including ages of the fishers and family sizes, migrant activity and resource conservation at two main fishing villages in Kenya; Vanga and Mayungu in the south and north coasts, straddling at 4.663°S and 39.215°E and 3.214°S and 40.135°E respectively. Further, the fishers were categorised with regard to fishing, gear and vessel operation and trade, and evolution upon entry into the fishery was also assessed in order to define fisher-stake in the fishery for resource management and conservation planning. Structured questionnaires were used to interview the fishers, and data and information recorded from 1018 fishers during the survey. Migrants accounted for over 63% of the fishers in the two study sites, with majority of the fishers lying in the 15–45 year age bracket. Dependence level averages at 4–6 person families per fisher. Entry to the fishery was mainly at seamen level, progressing to fishermen and finally to fish dealers (tajiris), with the latter holding >62% capital in the fishery. Resource management in the fishery was low and only 10% of the fishers were active participants in marine conservation and community beach management issues. Fisher migrations were mainly monsoon season-linked (>58%) although social factors such as family location determined to a great extent the expanse of the migrations. The revival of fisheries cooperatives and active participation in community resource management and conservation groups is envisaged as the key to the sustainability of both the marine resources and the economies associated with this high mobility, cross-border fishery.     

Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate?

Expansion in the world's human population and economic development will increase future demand for fish products. As global fisheries yield is constrained by ecosystems productivity and management effectiveness, per capita fish consumption can only be maintained or increased if aquaculture makes an increasing contribution to the volume and stability of global fish supplies. Here, we use predictions of changes in global and regional climate (according to IPCC emissions scenario A1B), marine ecosystem and fisheries production estimates from high resolution regional models, human population size estimates from United Nations prospects, fishmeal and oil price estimations, and projections of the technological development in aquaculture feed technology, to investigate the feasibility of sustaining current and increased per capita fish consumption rates in 2050. We conclude that meeting current and larger consumption rates is feasible, despite a growing population and the impacts of climate change on potential fisheries production, but only if fish resources are managed sustainably and the animal feeds industry reduces its reliance on wild fish. Ineffective fisheries management and rising fishmeal prices driven by greater demand could, however, compromise future aquaculture production and the availability of fish products.     

Effects of commercial timber harvesting on streamflow regimes in the Plynlimon catchments,mid‐Wales

This paper presents the first large‐scale British study of the impacts of commercial forest cutting on stream‐flow regimes. The 70% forested headwaters of the River Severn are part of the intensively instrumented long‐term Plynlimon catchment study into the impact of land use on stream flow. The forest area, comprising predominantly Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis), was planted mainly in the 1930s and 1940s. Harvesting commenced in the mid‐1980s and over the study period about half the forest has been felled. Changes in annual water yield and extreme flows were studied in four nested catchments ranging in area from about 1 to 10 km² and compared with an adjacent benchmark grassland catchment. As expected from earlier process studies the cutting of the forest increased total annual flows. Less expected was the clear evidence that the felling augmented low flows. This informs a long‐standing debate whether upland forestry increases or reduces baseflows. A particularly notable result was the lack of impact of the harvesting on storm peak flows. This may result from the application of forest management guidelines designed to reduce soil damage and erosion during the harvesting, and indicates that the forest itself has a limited impact on flooding. These findings are timely because British forest expansion peaked in the 30 years following the Second World War, and large areas of these woodlands are now approaching economic maturity and will be harvested in the next two decades. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Examination of climate risk using a modified uncertainty matrix framework—Applications in the water sector

Previous climate risk assessments provide important methodological insights into how to derive tractable research questions and the appropriate use of data under uncertainty, as well as identifying steps that benefit from stakeholder involvement. Here we propose the use of a framework for the systematic and objective exploration of climate risk assessments. The matrix facilitates a breakdown of information about aim and context, main results, methodological choices, stakeholder involvement, sources and characteristics of uncertainties and overall weaknesses. We then apply the matrix to three risk assessments in the water sector to explore some methodological strengths and weaknesses of approaches strongly linked to climate model outputs (top-down) versus those that originate from local knowledge of climate exposures (bottom-up), and demonstrate that closer integration with social and physical sciences is more likely to yield robust climate risk assessments.     

On the theory of thin rotating jets: A quasi‐geostrophic time dependent model

The time‐dependent meandering in a thin baroclinic jet over bottom topography is discussed in the quasi‐geostrophic approximation. The motion of the axis of the jet is taken to be vertically coherent and the axis itself is defined as inextensible. The motion is examined from a frame of reference moving with the axis but fixed at an arbitrary longitude in terms of an open ocean spatial initial value problem. The velocities of the axis and of the jet are quasi‐geostrophic, and vorticity conservation for the first non‐geostrophic components constrains the evolution of the axis and gives a path equation. The spatial linearized stability problem is studied and the jet is found to be baroclinically unstable to path disturbances of sufficiently high frequency which amplify downstream. An exact solution is obtained to the nonlinear path equation over a flat bottom with no ß‐effect. The evolution of the path of these unstable meanders is such that the path closes itself and forms rings (at which point the analysis breaks down). It is proposed that the baroclinic jet processes studied here are fundamental to the dynamics of Gulf Stream meandering and isolated eddy production.     

Subsidence, extension and thermal history of the West African margin in Senegal

The subsidence of the Atlantic margin in Senegal clearly shows two rapid stages related to the formation of (1) the Central Atlantic during the early Jurassic (around 200 Ma), and (2) the Equatorial Atlantic during the Cretaceous (100 Ma). A simple model of extension is used to interpret the subsidence history and to derive the thermal evolution of this basin. The present-day gravity, bathymetry, bottom hole temperatures (BHT) in oil exploration boreholes and heat flow density are used to control the validity of the model. Two cross sections from the outcropping basement to oceanic crust are used, one in Casamance and the other one at the south to latitude of Dakar. The model can fully explain the first-order subsidence history as well as the present-day observations, and therefore can provide valuable information about the thermal evolution of sediments and about the structure of the continental crust along the margin. Comparisons with the opposite margin in North America (Blake Plateau and Carolina trough) indicate a rather different evolution (the North American margin did not undergo the second stage of rifting) and a different crustal structure (crustal thinning is less important on the African margin).