Methodological challenges to confirmatory latent variable models of social vulnerability

Natural Hazards - Socially vulnerable communities experience disproportionately negative outcomes following natural disasters and underscoring a need for well-validated measures to identify those...     

Testing the consistency of Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum spatial correlations in temperature proxy records

Holocene temperature proxy records are commonly used in quantitative synthesis and model-data comparisons. However, comparing correlations between time series from records collected in proximity to one another with the expected correlations based on climate model simulations indicates either regional or noisy climate signals in Holocene temperature proxy records. In this study, we evaluate the consistency of spatial correlations present in Holocene proxy records with those found in data from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Specifically, we predict correlations expected in LGM proxy records if the only difference to Holocene correlations would be due to more time uncertainty and more climate variability in the LGM. We compare this simple prediction to the actual correlation structure in the LGM proxy records. We found that time series data of ice-core stable isotope records and planktonic foraminifera Mg/Ca ratios were consistent between the Holocene and LGM periods, while time series of Uk'37 proxy records were not as we found no correlation between nearby LGM records. Our results support the finding of highly regional or noisy marine proxy records in the compilation analysed here and suggest the need for further studies on the role of climate proxies and the processes of climate signal recording and preservation.     

A novel methodological approach for land subsidence prediction through data assimilation techniques

Computational Geosciences - Anthropogenic land subsidence can be evaluated and predicted by numerical models, which are often built over deterministic analyses. However, uncertainties and...     

What drives policy change for REDD+? A qualitative comparative analysis of the interplay between institutional and policy arena factors

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) has emerged as a promising climate change mitigation mechanism in developing countries. In order to identify the enabling conditions for achieving progress in the implementation of an effective, efficient and equitable REDD+, this paper examines national policy settings in a comparative analysis across 13 countries with a focus on both institutional context and the actual setting of the policy arena. The evaluation of REDD+ revealed that countries across Africa, Asia and Latin America are showing some progress, but some face backlashes in realizing the necessary transformational change to tackle deforestation and forest degradation. A Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) undertaken as part of the research project showed two enabling institutional configurations facilitating progress: (1) the presence of already initiated policy change; and (2) scarcity of forest resources combined with an absence of any effective forestry framework and policies. When these were analysed alongside policy arena conditions, the paper finds that the presence of powerful transformational coalitions combined with strong ownership and leadership, and performance-based funding, can both work as a strong incentive for achieving REDD+ goals.

Key policy insights

• The positive push of already existing policy change, or the negative stress of resource scarcity together with lack of effective policies, represents institutional conditions that can support REDD+ progress.

• Progress also requires the presence of powerful transformational coalitions and strong ownership and leadership. In the absence of these internal drivers, performance-based funding can work as a strong incentive.

• When comparing three assessments (2012, 2014, 2016) of REDD+ enabling conditions, some progress in establishing processes of change can be observed over time; however, the overall fluctuation in progress of most countries reveals the difficulty in changing the deforestation trajectory away from business as usual.

     

Use of immunofluorescence technique in cultured fibroblasts from Mediterranean cetaceans as new "in vitro" tool to investigate effects of environmental contaminants

The aim of the present study was to propose the immunofluorescence technique in cultured fibroblasts from Mediterranean cetaceans as a new "in vitro" tool to explore the susceptibility of these marine mammals to different xenobiotic compounds. The cell lines were cultured from integument biopsies of free-ranging and stranded cetaceans (dead within 12h). Using the indirect immunofluorescence assay, we detected endogenous proteins induced by different contaminants. Here we present the method used for qualitative and quantitative evaluation of cytochromes P450 (CYP1A1 and CYP2B) induced by some POPs (DDTs and PCBs) and emerging contaminants (PBDEs) in fibroblast cell cultures of striped dolphin (Stenella coeruleoalba) and bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus). Immunofluorescence was quantified with a specially designed Olympus macro, DetectIntZ. A major result was the possibility of using this "in vitro" assay to quantify induction of endogenous proteins.     

Zooplankton research off Peru: A review

A review of zooplankton studies conducted in Peruvian marine waters is given. After a short history of the development of zooplankton research off Peru, we review zooplankton methodology, taxonomy, biodiversity, spatial distribution, seasonal and interannual variability, trophodynamics, secondary production, and modelling. We review studies on several micro-, meso-, macro-, and meroplankton groups, and give a species list from both published and unpublished reports. Three regional zooplankton groups have been identified: (1) a continental shelf group dominated by Acartia tonsa and Centropages brachiatus; (2) a continental slope group characterized by siphonophores, bivalves, foraminifera and radiolaria; (3) and a species-rich oceanic group. The highest zooplankton abundances and biomasses were often found between 4–6°S and 14–16°S, where continental shelves are narrow. Species composition changes with distance from the shore. Species composition and biomass also vary strongly on short time scales due to advection, peaks of larval production, trophic interactions, and community succession. The relation of zooplankton to climatic variability (ENSO and multi-decadal) and fish stocks is discussed in the context of ecological regime shifts. An intermediate upwelling hypothesis is proposed, based on the negative effects of low upwelling intensity in summer or extremely strong and enduring winter upwelling on zooplankton abundance off Peru. According to this hypothesis, intermediate upwelling creates an optimal environmental window for zooplankton communities. Finally, we highlight important knowledge gaps that warrant attention in future.     

Biochemical alterations in juvenile carp (Cyprinus carpio) exposed to zinc: glutathione reductase as a target

The aim of this study was to investigate biochemical changes in juvenile carp (Cyprinus carpio) exposed to zinc chloride (10, 30 and 100 microM) for a period of 48 h. Zinc exposure caused a concentration-dependent reduction in glutathione reductase (GR) activity in gills, liver and brain. Gill glutathione S-transferase (GST) was reduced when animals were exposed to the highest concentration of 100 microM zinc. The phosphorylation of p38(MAPK) increased in the brain of fish exposed to zinc 100 microM, while phosphorylation of the extracellular signal-regulated protein kinase 1/2 (ERK1/2) and c-Jun N-terminal protein kinase 1/2 (JNK1/2) remained unchanged. Expression of proteins HSP60 and HSP70 were not affected by zinc exposure. Considering the significant concentration-dependent inhibition of GR in all tissues analyzed, this enzyme could be a potential biomarker of exposure to zinc, which has to be confirmed.     

Effect of crab size and habitat type on the locomotory activity of juvenile shore crabs, Carcinus maenas

Post-settlement processes are a major focus in the study of the dynamics of marine populations and communities. Post-settlement movement of juveniles is an important, but often ignored, process which affects local predator–prey and competitive interactions. We used benthic suction sampling and pitfall traps to examine density and locomotory activity of Carcinus maenas juveniles in different intertidal habitat types in the Rio Mira Estuary, Portugal, to better understand intra-specific interactions in a system where density-dependent processes are known to regulate population dynamics. As expected, significantly higher densities of juvenile shore crabs were found from bare mud compared to densely vegetated habitats. At the time of sampling, small and intermediate stages together outnumbered by far the larger juveniles. Conversely, larger crabs were much more frequent than smaller ones in traps. A locomotory index (LI), i.e. the ratio between crab catch in pitfall traps and their density within their moving range, is proposed as a measure of movement. LI analyses indicated that: (1) movement is an order of magnitude higher in large than small juveniles and much higher in sparse than dense vegetation cover; (2) activity of small juveniles is mostly crepuscular, regardless of vegetation cover; and (3) movement of large juveniles is very limited in dense Zostera patches, but very high in sparsely vegetated areas, during the day and night. These results suggest that small juveniles are relatively protected under dense vegetation cover due to lower mobility of larger crabs, and provide evidence of temporal segregation of activity windows between juvenile crabs of different sizes, which may be a key mechanism to reduce cannibalism and therefore increase the carrying capacity of nursery habitats.     

Rethinking small-scale fisheries compliance

Fisheries compliance has been identified as key to sustainable fisheries management. However, it has been widely acknowledged that the approach by many governments worldwide to achieve compliance is largely through law enforcement efforts. Although theories of normative action have expanded compliance thinking from that of rationalist approaches, this paper takes the argument further. By drawing on criminology and security discourse, and on empirical research on small-scale fisheries in South Africa, this paper argues for a new approach to our understanding of compliance. Furthermore, it argues that rather than taking law as given, the formation of law and the power dynamics influencing such processes are critical aspects that need to be acknowledged and understood in fisheries compliance theory.