Effects of rainfall on soil–structure system frequency: Examples based on poroelasticity and a comparison with full-scale measurements

In this paper, a simple two-dimensional soil–structure interaction model, based on Biot's theory of wave propagation in fluid saturated porous media, is used to explain the observed increase of the apparent frequencies of Millikan library in Pasadena, California, during heavy rainfall and recovery within days after the rain. These variations have been measured for small amplitude response (to microtremors and wind excitation), for which Biot's linear theory is valid. The postulated hypothesis is that the observed increases in frequency are due to the water saturation of the soil. The theoretical model used to explore this hypothesis consists of a shear wall supported by a circular foundation embedded in a poroelastic half-space. This rigid foundation model may be appropriate only for the NS response of Millikan library. This paper presents results for the foundation stiffness, and for the system response for model parameters similar to those for Millikan library (located on alluvium with shear wave velocity of about 300 m/s). The foundation impedance matrix, foundation input motion and system response are compared for dry and fully saturated half-space, with permeable and impermeable foundation. The results show that for embedded foundations, the effects of saturation on the horizontal foundation stiffness are as significant as for the vertical stiffness, contrary to what has been known for surface foundations investigated by other authors. Further, the results suggest a 1–2% increase in system frequency of the first two modes of vibration, depending on the drainage condition along the foundation–soil interface. Such increases agree qualitatively with the observations.     

Constraining Holocene sea levels using U‐Th ages of phreatic overgrowths on speleothems from coastal caves in Mallorca (Western Mediterranean)

Phreatic overgrowths on speleothems (POS) are carbonate formations deposited at the water table of caves in unique karstic coastal settings having morphologies that can be directly related to sea level at the time of formation. The U‐Th ages of calcite and aragonite overgrowths collected from the modern water table in coastal caves on Mallorca (Cova de Cala Varques A and Cova des Pas de Vallgornera) were determined using high‐precision MC‐ICPMS techniques. U‐Th ages indicate that phreatic carbonate deposition occurred between ca 2·8 and at least 0·6 ka BP and are in accord with an archeologically estimated age of 3·7–3·0 ka BP for a drowned prehistoric construction at a depth of 1 m below current sea level in a cave from the same area. Speleothem δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O and chemical composition of cave pools provide supportive evidence that POS reflect mixing between seawater and brackish water table. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

气象卫星云图的多分辨小波分解及人工神经网络降水估计研究

采用多分辨小波分析对卫星图象进行预处理 ,在保留其特征信息的同时 ,减小了数据量 ,改善了神经网络训练过程的收敛性能 ,提高了处理速度。采用这一方法根据 GOES- 8的红外亮温图象和气象雷达资料对巴西圣保罗州中部的降水量估计进行了试验 ,取得了良好的效果。     

The droughts of 1997 and 2005 in Amazonia: floodplain hydrology and its potential ecological and human impacts

It is well known that most of the severe droughts in Amazonia, such as that of 1997, are El Niño-related. However, in 2005, the Amazon was affected by a severe drought that was not El Niño-related, as most of the rainfall anomalies that have happened in southwestern Amazonia are driven by sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic. Earlier studies have analyzed both droughts in terms of their meteorological causes and impacts in terra firme (non-flooded) forests. This study compares the hydrological effects of both droughts on the Amazonian floodplain and discusses their potential ecological and human impacts based on an extensive literature review. The results revealed that the effects of the 2005 drought were exacerbated because rainfall was lower and evaporation rates were higher at the peak of the dry season compared to the 1997 drought. This induced a more acute depletion of water levels in floodplain lakes and was most likely associated with higher fish mortality rates. Based on the fact that the stem growth of many floodplain species is related to the length of the non-flooded period, it is hypothesized that the 1997 drought had more positive effects on floodplain forest growth than the 2005 drought. The fishing community of Silves in central Amazonia considered both droughts to have been equally severe. However, the 2005 drought was widely broadcasted by the press; therefore, the governmental mitigation efforts were more comprehensive. It is suggested that the availability of new communication technology and greater public awareness regarding environmental issues, combined with the new legal framework for assessing the severity of calamities in Brazil, are among the primary factors that explain the difference in societal response between the two droughts.     

Cross-national patterns of governance mechanisms in nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement

ABSTRACT

The continuous submission and scaling-up of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) constitutes a key feature of the Paris Agreement. In their NDCs, states propose governance mechanisms for implementation of climate action, in turn distinguishing appropriate roles for the state in climate governance. Clarity on Parties’ suggested roles for the state makes explicit assumptions on the premise of climate policy, in turn contributing to enhanced transparency in negotiations on the scaling-up of NDCs. This also speaks to ongoing debates on roles for the state in climate governance literature. This article identifies the governance mechanisms proposed by states in their NDCs and the roles for the state envisioned by those governance mechanisms, and also examines how cross-national patterns of roles for the state break or converge with conventional patterns of international politics. The analysis shows that states propose a plurality of roles, which to different extents may be complementary or conflictual. We conclude that income, region, and the Annexes under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are important for understanding suggested roles for the state, but that there are nuances to be further explored. We argue that this paper has three key findings: i) a majority of states rely on market mechanisms to implement their NDCs while rules on implementation and assessment of market mechanisms are still an outstanding issue in the negotiations, meaning that resolving this issue will be essential; ii) the process for evaluating and assessing qualitative governance mechanisms needs to be specified; and iii) increased awareness of differing views on the state’s roles makes explicit different perspectives on what constitutes an ambitious and legitimate contribution to combating climate change.

Key policy insights

• A majority of states (> 75%) envision the state as regulator (creating and strengthening legislation), market facilitator (creating and maintaining market structures), or facilitator (creating more favourable material conditions for climate-friendly behaviour).

• Greater awareness of differing views on roles for the state can increase understanding of different perspectives on ambition and legitimacy of contributions, in turn facilitating trust in negotiations.

• A distinction between substantive and procedural qualitative governance mechanisms and their function and interaction would facilitate the stocktaking dialogues.