On the prediction of the Toce alpine basin floods with distributed hydrologic models

With the objective of improving flood predictions, in recent years sophisticated continuous hydrologic models that include complex land‐surface sub‐models have been developed. This has produced a significant increase in parameterization; consequently, applications of distributed models to ungauged basins lacking specific data from field campaigns may become redundant. The objective of this paper is to produce a parsimonious and robust distributed hydrologic model for flood predictions in Italian alpine basins. Application is made to the Toce basin (area 1534 km²). The Toce basin was a case study of the RAPHAEL European Union research project, during which a comprehensive set of hydrologic, meteorological and physiographic data were collected, including the hydrologic analysis of the 1996–1997 period. Two major floods occurred during this period. We compare the FEST04 event model (which computes rainfall abstraction and antecedent soil moisture conditions through the simple Soil Conservation Service curve number method) and two continuous hydrologic models, SDM and TDM (which differ in soil water balance scheme, and base flow and runoff generation computations). The simple FEST04 event model demonstrated good performance in the prediction of the 1997 flood, but shows limits in the prediction of the long and moderate 1996 flood. More robust predictions are obtained with the parsimonious SDM continuous hydrologic model, which uses a simple one‐layer soil water balance model and an infiltration excess mechanism for runoff generation, and demonstrates good performance in both long‐term runoff modelling and flood predictions. Instead, the use of a more sophisticated continuous hydrologic model, the TDM, that simulates soil moisture dynamics in two layers of soil, and computes runoff and base flow using some TOPMODEL concepts, does not seem to be advantageous for this alpine basin. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Two paleoecological histories spanning the period of human settlement in southeastern Brazil

The absence of human occupation sites in southeastern Brazil during the mid Holocene has been referred to as the 'Archaic Gap' (8970–1940 cal. a BP) and is predicted to have resulted from increased aridity. A ca. 14 000 cal. a pollen history from two well‐dated lake sediment cores located within the archeological district of Lagoa Santa, in the State of Minas Gerais, southeastern Brazil, was used to test this hypothesis. Our analyses indicated that the present cerrado and tropical semi‐deciduous forest mosaic persisted throughout the mid Holocene, until ca. 5500 cal. a BP, and the Lagoa Santa region did not experience especially dry conditions during the Holocene period. The early Holocene pollen spectra contained an assemblage of cold‐adapted taxa such as Podocarpus, Myrsine and Araucaria, co‐occurring with taxa from cerrado, e.g. Caryocar. A replacement of cold taxa by the modern cerrado–semi‐deciduous forest vegetation took place progressively, but appears to have been completed by the mid Holocene. No evidence of sustained drought was found in sedimentation or forest composition, nor any prolonged dry event in the study region. Holocene dryness as an explanation for the abandonment of Lagoa Santa region is not supported by the palynological analyses conducted in this study. Rather it is suggested that unpredictable climate may have underlain that abandonment. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dike emplacement and flank instability at Mount Etna: Constraints from a poro-elastic-model of flank collapse

Many volcanic edifices are subject to flank failure, usually produced by a combination of events, rather than any single process. From a dynamic point of view, the cause of collapse can be divided into factors that contribute to an increase in shear stress, and factors that contribute to the reduction in the friction coefficient μ of a potential basal failure plane. We study the potential for flank failure at Mount Etna considering a schematic section of the eastern flank, approximated by a wedge-like block. For such geometry, we perform a (steady state) limit equilibrium analysis: the resolution of the forces parallel to the possible basal failure plane allows us to determine the total force acting on the potentially unstable wedge. An estimate of the relative strength of these forces suggests that, in first approximation, the stability is controlled primarily by the balance between block weight, lithostatic load and magmatic forces. Any other force (sea load, hydrostatic uplift, and the uplift due to mechanical and thermal pore-fluid pressure) may be considered of second order. To study the model sensitivity, we let the inferred slope α of the basal surface failure vary between ?10° and 10°, and consider three possible scenarios: no magma loading, magmastatic load, and magmastatic load with magma overpressure. We use error propagation to include in our analysis the uncertainties in the estimates of the mechanics and geometrical parameters controlling the block equilibrium. When there is no magma loading, the ratio between destabilizing and stabilizing forces is usually smaller than the coefficient of friction of the basal failure plane. In the absence of an initiating mechanism, and with the nominal values of the coefficient of friction μ = 0.7 ± 0.1 proposed, the representative wedge will remain stable or continue to move at constant speed. In presence of magmastatic forces, the influence of the lateral restraint decreases. If we consider the magmastatic load only, the block will remain stable (or continue to move at constant speed), unless the transient mechanical and thermal pressurization significantly decrease the friction coefficient, increasing the instability of the flank wedge for α > 5° (seaward dipping decollement). When the magma overpressure contribution is included in the equilibrium analysis, the ratio between destabilizing and stabilizing forces is of the same order or larger than the coefficient of friction of the basal failure plane, and the block will become unstable (or accelerate), especially in the case of the reduction in friction coefficient. Finally, our work suggests that the major challenge in studying flank instability at Mount Etna is not the lack of an appropriate physical model, but the limited knowledge of the mechanical and geometrical parameters describing the block equilibrium.     

Laboratory tests with interferometric optical fibre sensors to monitor shallow landslides triggered by rainfalls

Optical fibre–based sensors have now established their place in the field of geohazard monitoring due to their sensitivity to strain and temperature changes. Progressive development in the technology leads to the availability of novel, accurate and durable sensors at a relatively limited cost. This creates room for original monitoring applications that have been, so far, impeded by the shortcomings of conventional monitoring tools. In this work, we explore the applicability of an interferometric optical fibre sensor as a vibration sensing tool at laboratory scale. We tested the ability of the sensor to identify precursors of instability in a downscaled model of a rainfall-induced landslide composed of granular material. We carried out four experimental tests which involved different sensor deployments and soil mixtures. The recorded signals were processed by means of a time–frequency analysis and we identified two frequency-domain parameters—the spectral centroid and band power—that could provide information on the development of instability. Their ratio yielded a unique parameter through which a precursory stage could be outlined by defining a threshold value based on the data collected at the beginning of the experiment. In our lab tests, precursors of instability were detected 2–3 min before a crack was observed at the surface. This may upscale to a lead time of about 20–30 min or more in the field, classifying our monitoring approach in between an alarm and a warning system. The work presented here can be considered a first promising step towards an innovative monitoring system and shows the potential of optical fibre sensing as a shallow landslide monitoring technique, encouraging further testing, especially in real-case studies.

     

Understanding carbonate factories through palaeoecological and sedimentological signals – Tribute to Luis Pomar

The carbonate factories, their controlling factors and their palaeoecological and sedimentological signals recorded in sedimentary successions are key elements for understanding the evolution of carbonate platform systems. Luis Pomar has dedicated most of his academic life to the study of carbonate rocks and carbonate factories. The idea for this special issue to celebrate Pomar’s career arose during a session at the 34^th International Association of Sedimentologists meeting held in Rome, entitled ‘Understanding carbonate factories through palaeoecological and geochemical signals’. The proposal encountered great response among participants, and additional contributions followed an email invitation to other specialists. This issue contains a variety of papers on carbonate sedimentology and carbonate factories. Here, an introduction that contextualizes the papers and key concepts discussed in this thematic issue is provided. It reviews Luis Pomar’s major achievements in carbonate sedimentology and discusses the evolution of the concept of the carbonate factory and the series of palaeoecological and sedimentological signals used to characterize the wide spectrum of carbonate depositional systems found in the natural world.     

Clastic dikes in the Dead Sea basin as indicators of local site amplification

Natural Hazards - Early Holocene seismic activity triggered fluidization and clastic-dike emplacement within Late Pleistocene lacustrine Lisan Formation sediments in the Dead Sea basin (DSB)....     

矿物学文献中未定名矿物的编码系统:国际矿物学协会新矿物与命名和分类委员会“未定名矿物”小组报告

国际矿物学协会新矿物与命名和分类委员会(IMA-CNMMN)的未定名矿物小组(SUM),开发了一个编码系统,对已经发表但尚未定名的矿物进行编码。在文献中存在两类未定名矿物。一是"有效"未定名矿物,是指未定名矿物没有对应的已知矿物种,但如果它们有其他产地或能够在其他样品中被发现,那么已发表的相关矿物描述允许得到认可。二是"无效"未定名矿物,是指未定名矿物已经有对应的已知矿物种;或者相关矿物描述不足以获得认可。未定名矿物的名单是由IMA保管。该编码系统提供了一个永久的UM号码。中国的矿物学文献的数量和重要性有必要用中文阐述未定名矿物的编码系统。     

Thermoluminescence dating of the Kamil impact crater (Egypt)

Thermoluminescence (TL) dating has been used to determine the age of the meteorite impact crater at Gebel Kamil (Egyptian Sahara). Previous studies suggested that the 45 m diameter structure was produced by a fall in recent times (less than 5000 years ago) of an iron meteorite impactor into quartz‐arenites and siltstones belonging to the Lower Cretaceous Gilf Kebir Formation. The impact caused the complete fragmentation of the impactor, and the formation of a variety of impactites (e.g., partially vitrified dark and light materials) present as ejecta within the crater and in the surrounding area. After a series of tests to evaluate the TL properties of different materials including shocked intra‐crater target rocks and different types of ejecta, we selected a suite of light‐colored ejecta that showed evidence of strong thermal shock effects (e.g., partial vitrification and the presence of high‐temperature and ‐pressure silica phases). The abundance of quartz in the target rocks, including the vitrified impactites, allowed TL dating to be undertaken. The variability of radioactivity of the intracrateric target rocks and the lack of direct in situ dosimetric evaluations prevented precise dating; it was, however, possible to constrain the impact in the 2000 BC–500 AD range. If, as we believe, the radioactivity measured in the fallback deposits is a reliable estimate of the mean radioactivity of the site, the narrower range 1600–400 BC (at the 2σ confidence level) can be realistically proposed.     

The respective roles of surface temperature driven feedbacks and tropospheric adjustment to CO2 in CMIP5 transient climate simulations

An overview of radiative climate feedbacks and ocean heat uptake efficiency diagnosed from idealized transient climate change experiments of 14 CMIP5 models is presented. Feedbacks explain about two times more variance in transient climate response across the models than ocean heat uptake efficiency. Cloud feedbacks can clearly be identified as the main source of inter-model spread. Models with strong longwave feedbacks in the tropics feature substantial increases in cloud ice around the tropopause suggestive of changes in cloud-top heights. The lifting of the tropical tropopause goes together with a general weakening of the tropical circulation. Distinctive inter-model differences in cloud shortwave feedbacks occur in the subtropics including the equatorward flanks of the storm-tracks. Related cloud fraction changes are not confined to low clouds but comprise middle level clouds as well. A reduction in relative humidity through the lower and mid troposphere can be identified as being the main associated large-scale feature. Experiments with prescribed sea surface temperatures are analyzed in order to investigate whether the diagnosed feedbacks from the transient climate simulations contain a tropospheric adjustment component that is not conveyed through the surface temperature response. The strengths of the climate feedbacks computed from atmosphere-only experiments with prescribed increases in sea surface temperatures, but fixed CO₂ concentrations, are close to the ones derived from the transient experiment. Only the cloud shortwave feedback exhibits discernible differences which, however, can not unequivocally be attributed to tropospheric adjustment to CO₂. Although for some models a tropospheric adjustment component is present in the global mean shortwave cloud feedback, an analysis of spatial patterns does not lend support to the view that cloud feedbacks are dominated by their tropospheric adjustment part. Nevertheless, there is positive correlation between the strength of tropospheric adjustment processes and cloud feedbacks across different climate models.