Climate change impacts on wildfires in a Mediterranean environment

We analyse the observed climate-driven changes in summer wildfires and their future evolution in a typical Mediterranean environment (NE Spain). By analysing observed climate and fire data from 1970 to 2007, we estimate the response of fire number (NF) and burned area (BA) to climate trends, disentangling the drivers responsible for long-term and interannual changes by means of a parsimonious Multi Linear Regression model (MLR). In the last forty years, the observed NF trend was negative. Here we show that, if improvements in fire management were not taken into account, the warming climate forcing alone would have led to a positive trend in NF. On the other hand, for BA, higher fuel flammability is counterbalanced by the indirect climate effects on fuel structure (i.e. less favourable conditions for fine-fuel availability and fuel connectivity), leading to a slightly negative trend. Driving the fire model with A1B climate change scenarios based on a set of Regional Climate Models from the ENSEMBLES project indicates that increasing temperatures promote a positive trend in NF if no further improvements in fire management are introduced.     

Ecohydrological modelling with EcH2O‐iso to quantify forest and grassland effects on water partitioning and flux ages

We used the new process‐based, tracer‐aided ecohydrological model EcH₂O‐iso to assess the effects of vegetation cover on water balance partitioning and associated flux ages under temperate deciduous beech forest (F) and grassland (G) at an intensively monitored site in Northern Germany. Unique, multicriteria calibration, based on measured components of energy balance, hydrological function and biomass accumulation, resulted in good simulations reproducing measured soil surface temperatures, soil water content, transpiration, and biomass production. Model results showed the forest “used” more water than the grassland; of 620 mm average annual precipitation, losses were higher through interception (29% under F, 16% for G) and combined soil evaporation and transpiration (59% F, 47% G). Consequently, groundwater (GW) recharge was enhanced under grassland at 37% (~225 mm) of precipitation compared with 12% (~73 mm) for forest. The model tracked the ages of water in different storage compartments and associated fluxes. In shallow soil horizons, the average ages of soil water fluxes and evaporation were similar in both plots (~1.5 months), though transpiration and GW recharge were older under forest (~6 months compared with ~3 months for transpiration, and ~12 months compared with ~10 months for GW). Flux tracking using measured chloride data as a conservative tracer provided independent support for the modelling results, though highlighted effects of uncertainties in forest partitioning of evaporation and transpiration. By tracking storage—flux—age interactions under different land covers, EcH₂O‐iso could quantify the effects of vegetation on water partitioning and age distributions. Given the likelihood of drier, warmer summers, such models can help assess the implications of land use for water resource availability to inform debates over building landscape resilience to climate change. Better conceptualization of soil water mixing processes and improved calibration data on leaf area index and root distribution appear obvious respective modelling and data needs for improved simulations.     

Characterization of mixing and spreading in a bounded stratified medium

Matheron and de Marsily [Matheron M, de Marsily G. Is the transport in porous media always diffusive? A counter-example. Water Resour Res 1980;16:901–17] studied transport in a perfectly stratified infinite medium as an idealized aquifer model. They observed superdiffusive solute spreading quantified by anomalous increase of the apparent longitudinal dispersion coefficient with the square root of time. Here, we investigate solute transport in a vertically bounded stratified random medium. Unlike for the infinite medium at asymptotically long times, disorder-induced mixing and spreading is uniquely quantified by a constant Taylor dispersion coefficient. Using a stochastic modeling approach we study the effective mixing and spreading dynamics at pre-asymptotic times in terms of effective average transport coefficients. The latter are defined on the basis of local moments, i.e., moments of the transport Green function. We investigate the impact of the position of the initial plume and the initial plume size on the (highly anomalous) pre-asymptotic effective spreading and mixing dynamics for single realizations and in average. Effectively, the system “remembers” its initial state, the effective transport coefficients show so-called memory effects, which disappear after the solute has sampled the full vertical extent of the medium. We study the impact of the intrinsic non-ergodicity of the confined medium on the validity of the stochastic modeling approach and study in this context the transition from the finite to the infinite medium.     

A cellular model of river meandering

River meandering has been successfully modelled using vector based methods, but these can not simulate multiple or braided channels. Conversely, cellular braided river models fail to replicate meandering. This paper describes a new method to simulate river meandering within a cellular model (CAESAR). A novel technique for determining bend radius of curvature on a cell by cell basis is described, that importantly allows regional information on bend curvature to be transferred to local points. This local curvature is then used to drive meandering and lateral erosion through two methods. Key difficulties are identified, including the deposition of material on point bars and cut off development, but the method illustrates how meandering can be integrated within a cellular framework. This demonstrates the potential to produce a single model that can incorporate both meandering and braiding. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Anomalously deep earthquakes in northwestern Italy

It is usually assumed that earthquakes in intraplate regions occur in the upper crust, and northwestern Italy is generally assigned to this kind of normal seismicity. In this work, the depth distribution of the events localized in this area by the Istituto Geofisico Geodetico (IGG) seismic network in the period 1991–1997 is analyzed in detail. In particular, the location capability of the network is discussed, adopting as reference quarry blasts (for the epicentral position) and the locations obtained from a dense temporary network (for the depth estimate). Within the so-obtained error limits, the depth distribution of events show a characteristic pattern: while for most of the area covered by the network the well-located seismicity lies within the first 20 km of depth, in a band following the inner arc of the Western Alps, numerous events have anomalously large focal depths, reaching a maximum of 114 km. These depth determinations cannot be attributed to instabilities of the location procedure: different choices of the propagation models used for the hypocentral determination led to very similar depth values, always significantly larger than the standard values for the surrounding areas. A strong correlation has been found between the 3-dimensional distribution of these foci and the P-wave propagation anomalies obtained from tomographic studies, suggesting a direct link between elastic and rheological properties of lower crust and upper mantle in this area.     

Estimation of the behavior factor of existing RC-MRF buildings

In recent years, several research groups have studied a new generation of analysis methods for seismic response assessment of existing buildings. Nevertheless, many important developments are still needed in order to define more reliable and effective assessment procedures. Moreover, regarding existing buildings, it should be highlighted that due to the low knowledge level, the linear elastic analysis is the only analysis method allowed. The same codes (such as NTC2008, EC8) consider the linear dynamic analysis with behavior factor as the reference method for the evaluation of seismic demand. This type of analysis is based on a linear-elastic structural model subject to a design spectrum, obtained by reducing the elastic spectrum through a behavior factor. The behavior factor (reduction factor or q factor in some codes) is used to reduce the elastic spectrum ordinate or the forces obtained from a linear analysis in order to take into account the non-linear structural capacities. The behavior factors should be defined based on several parameters that influence the seismic nonlinear capacity, such as mechanical materials characteristics, structural system, irregularity and design procedures. In practical applications, there is still an evident lack of detailed rules and accurate behavior factor values adequate for existing buildings. In this work, some investigations of the seismic capacity of the main existing RC-MRF building types have been carried out. In order to make a correct evaluation of the seismic force demand, actual behavior factor values coherent with force based seismic safety assessment procedure have been proposed and compared with the values reported in the Italian seismic code, NTC08.     

Spatial modeling of drought events using max-stable processes

With their severe environmental and socioeconomic impact, drought events belong to the most far-reaching natural disasters. Effects are tremendous in rain-fed agricultural areas as in Africa. We analyzed and modeled the spatio-temporal statistical behavior of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index as a risk indicator for drought, reflecting its stochastic effects on vegetation. The study used a data set for Rwanda obtained from multitemporal satellite remote sensor measurements during a 14-year period and divided into season-specific spatial random fields. Maximal deviations from average conditions were modeled with max-stable Brown–Resnick processes taking methodological and computational challenges into account. Those challenges are caused by the large spatial extent and the relatively short time span covered by the data. Extensive simulations enabled us to go beyond the observations and, thus, to estimate several important characteristics of extreme drought events, such as their expected return period.     

Flood coincidence analysis of Poyang Lake and Yangtze River: risk and influencing factors

We build copula function-based joint distribution models for the annual maximum flood peaks of the Yangtze River and Poyang Lake, to analyze the coincidence probabilities, using scenarios that combine with the impoundment of three Gorges, define influencing indexes and relative contribution rates on flood coincidence at varying frequencies. The study shows the probabilities for coincidence of floods with 1000, 100, and 10-year return periods in both Yangtze main stem and Poyang Lake are respectively 0.02, 0.19 and 2.87%, with higher coincidence probabilities for shorter return periods; when 1000-year flood occurs in the Yangtze, the probabilities for Poyang Lake to encounter flood of the 1000, 100, or 10-year magnitude are higher than 16.08, 42.48 or 74.77% respectively; Poyang–Yangtze flood coincidence is affected by operation of the hydraulic engineering. The lowering of flood peaks caused by the Three Gorges impoundment and regulation of the lake have respectively reduced the probabilities of Poyang–Yangtze flood coincidence by about 7.0 and 1.97%, with average relative contribution rates ? 33.82 and ? 17.1%; influenced by hydrological projects in Poyang basin, variations in Poyang’s inflow flood have displayed an average contribution rate of 20.4% for the negative effect on extreme (P < 5% or P > 90%) flood coincidence, while having a positive contribution rate of 38.2% on floods of other return periods. The results can help increase our understanding of flood coincidence, and support flood control efforts in Poyang Lake; its analytical approach may also be useful to other applications of copula functions.     

Analytical Solutions of Three‐Dimensional Contaminant Transport Models with Exponential Source Decay

Despite the availability of numerical models, interest in analytical solutions of multidimensional advection‐dispersion systems remains high. Such models are commonly used for performing Tier I risk analysis and are embedded in many regulatory frameworks dealing with groundwater contamination. In this work, we develop a closed‐form solution of the three‐dimensional advection‐dispersion equation with exponential source decay, first‐order reaction, and retardation, and present an approach based on some ease of use diagrams to compare it with the integral open form solution and with earlier versions of the closed‐form solution. The comparison approach focuses on the relative differences associated with source decay and the effect of simulation time. The analysis of concentration contours, longitudinal sections, and transverse sections confirms that the closed‐form solutions studied can be used with acceptable approximation in the central area of a plume bound transversely within the source width, both behind and beyond the advective front and for concentration values up to two orders of magnitude less than the initial source concentration. As the proposed closed‐form model can be evaluated without nested numerical computations and with simple mathematical functions, it can be very useful in risk assessment procedures.     

Monitoring and predicting channel change in a free‐evolving,small Alpine river: Ridanna Creek (North East Italy)

The recent (25 years) morphodynamics of a proglacial reach of the Ridanna Creek, North‐East Italy, evolving in the absence of human constraints, has been investigated by means of an intensive field activity and of the analysis of aerial photographs. The study reach mostly displays a braided morphology, with sharp downstream variations of valley gradient, sediment size and formative conditions within the main channel. These discontinuities are associated with different processes of channel adjustment at different timescales, which have been quantified by coupling hydrological with morphological information. Several processes of channel change and variations in braiding intensity have been documented along the whole reach and highlight how a regular, weakly meandering main channel may significantly affect the morphodynamics of the braided network. A first attempt to predict the morphological instability of this main channel at the observed spatial scales through existing linear theories of curved river channels shows a good agreement with field observations. Finally, the complete hydro‐morphodynamical characterization of such an undisturbed alpine river reach can provide a relevant contribution to the definition of reference conditions for Alpine rivers required by the EU Water Framework Directive. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.