Impacts of land-use and climate changes on surface runoff in a tropical forest watershed (Brazil)

ABSTRACT

Surface runoff generation capacity can be modified by land-use and climate changes. Annual runoff volumes have been evaluated in a small watershed of tropical forest (Brazil), using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Firstly, the accuracy of SWAT in runoff predictions has been assessed by default input parameters and improved by automatic calibration, using 20-year observations. Then, the hydrological response under land uses (cropland, pasture and deforested soil) alternative to tropical forest and climate change scenarios has been simulated. SWAT application has showed that, if forest was replaced by crops or pasture, the watershed’s hydrological response would not significantly be affected. Conversely, a complete deforestation would slightly increase its runoff generation capacity. Under forecasted climate scenarios, the runoff generation capacity of the watershed will tend to decrease and will not be noticeably different among the representative concentration pathways. Pasture and bare soil will give the lowest and highest runoff coefficients, respectively.     

Exact analytic solution for the rotation of a rigid body having spherical ellipsoid of inertia and subjected to a constant torque

The exact analytic solution is introduced for the rotational motion of a rigid body having three equal principal moments of inertia and subjected to an external torque vector which is constant for an observer fixed with the body, and to arbitrary initial angular velocity. In the paper a parametrization of the rotation by three complex numbers is used. In particular, the rows of the rotation matrix are seen as elements of the unit sphere and projected, by stereographic projection, onto points on the complex plane. In this representation, the kinematic differential equation reduces to an equation of Riccati type, which is solved through appropriate choices of substitutions, thereby yielding an analytic solution in terms of confluent hypergeometric functions. The rotation matrix is recovered from the three complex rotation variables by inverse stereographic map. The results of a numerical experiment confirming the exactness of the analytic solution are reported. The newly found analytic solution is valid for any motion time length and rotation amplitude. The present paper adds a further element to the small set of special cases for which an exact solution of the rotational motion of a rigid body exists.     

Diatoms reveal complex spatial and temporal patterns of recent limnological change in West Greenland

Diatoms in sediment cores were analysed across a range of stratigraphic resolutions along a transect of 23 lakes spanning the ice-free margin of the west coast of Greenland (~67°N), to explore spatial and temporal patterns of recent (last ~150 years) environmental change in the region. These records display heterogeneous lake development trajectories over the last several centuries. Estimates of species composition turnover (beta-diversity) since 1850 AD are among the lowest for lakes in the Arctic, and are comparable to “unimpacted” reference lakes from temperate regions. Most of the change that occurred in West Greenland lakes pre-dates potential industrial anthropogenic effects, while post-1850 change is well within the natural range of variability for these systems. Nonetheless, a spatial pattern in core “top–bottom” changes is apparent across the transect: lakes in the arid interior of the region, adjacent to the ice sheet, and those with higher pH, register greater change than those in the more maritime climate of the coast. This suggests that climate plays an indirect role in the recent development of these lakes, and that recent anthropogenic forcing has not yet exceeded major ecological thresholds in this region.     

Channel and floodplain sediment dynamics in a reach of the tropical meandering Rio Beni (Bolivian Amazonia)

The study investigates interactions, water and sediment exchanges, between a rapidly migrating meander and its associated floodplain at fine temporal and spatial scales. The Beni River, an Amazonian free meandering river, makes the transition between Andean ranges and Amazonian lowlands. For the period 2002–2006, an assemblage of tools and methods (water and sediment discharges, topometric and bathymetric surveys, sedimentation rate estimations from unsupported ²¹⁰Pb and sediment trapping system) was used to jointly analyse the influence on the sediment budget of external factors (mainly water and sediment discharge) and the inherent behaviour of the system. The main issue addressed is the investigation of the complex relationship between ‘morphological conditioning’ of fluvial landform and process. The first part of the study was undertaken with the aim of linking erosion–deposition in an active meander with water and sediment fluxes. The three inter‐annual evolutions are characterized by very unequal sediment budgets; the first two intervals underwent predominant erosion, and the latter slight accumulation. Digital elevation models, evaluated for the active meander, demonstrate that sedimentation on the point bar depends more on external factors than erosion of the concave bank, which fluctuates slightly. The second part of the study, focusing on water and sediment exchanges between active bend and floodplain, examines the respective parts played by overbank flow and by an abandoned channel on the diffusion and sequestration of sediment. The association of short‐ and long‐term estimation of sedimentation rates suggests that floodplain construction is associated with two different processes and rhythms of sediment transportation. Finally, a sediment budget is proposed for the Beni River in the upper part of the Amazonian lowlands. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Radio maps of the Sun at λ = 1.95 cm

Two radio maps of the Sun at = 1.95 cm, taken at the N.R.A.O. (Green Bank) with a resolving power of 2.1 are studied and compared with H pictures: both bright and dark features appear to be strongly correlated. The emitted flux and the angular extent of the bright regions are given; from the observed radio-darkening of a region, the height of a prominence is derived.On leave from Osservatorio Astrofisico di Arcetri, Firenze.     

Magnetic and microwave structure in solar active regions

The structure of six active regions observed at 2.8 cm with the Stanford interferometer is compared with the configuration of the underlying photospheric magnetic fields, as given by the Kitt Peak magnetograph.The similar resolution and accuracy on the measured positions of both instruments allowed us to establish a more detailed spatial correspondence between radio and magnetic features than previously reached.The radio features which correspond to the cores of the active sources are always found to overlay regions of enhanced magnetic fields. Different spatial associations have been found depending on the brightness temperature of the sources. The possibility that this effect might be due to the development of the active region is also considered.     

Automatic Recognition of Landslides Based on Neural Network Analysis of Seismic Signals: An Application to the Monitoring of Stromboli Volcano (Southern Italy)

In the last 9 years, the amount and the quality of geophysical and volcanological observations of Stromboli's' activity have undergone a marked increase. This new information highlighted that the landslides on the Sciara del Fuoco flank are tightly linked to the volcanic activity. Actually, at the beginning of the December 28, 2002, effusive eruption, the seismic monitoring network was less dense than now, and therefore it is not known if there was an increase in the landslide rate before the eruption. Despite this, it is known that a big landslide occurred 2 days after the beginning of the eruption which caused a tsunami (December 30, 2002). More recently, the effusive eruption in February 2007 was preceded by an increase in landslides on the Sciara del Fuoco flank, which were recorded by the seismological monitoring system that had been improved after the 2002–2003 crisis. These episodes led us to believe that monitoring the Sciara del Fuoco flank instability is an important topic, and that landslides might be significant short-term precursors of effusive eruptions at the Stromboli volcano. To automatically detect landslide signals, we have developed a specialized neural algorithm. This can distinguish between landslides and the other types of seismic signals usually recorded at the Stromboli volcano (i.e., explosion quakes and volcanic tremor). The discrimination results show an average performance of 98.67 %. According to the experience of the crisis of 2007, to identify changes that can be considered as precursors of effusive eruptions, we set up an automatic decision-making method based on the neural network responses. This method can operate on a continuous data stream. It calculates a landslide percentage index (LPI) that depends on the number of records that are classified by the net as landslides over a given time interval. We tested the method on February 27, 2007, including the beginning of the effusive phase. The index showed an increase as early as at 09:00 UTC on that day and reached its maximum value (100 %) at 12:00, about 40 min before the onset of the eruption. After the beginning of the effusive phase, the index remains high due to the blocks that roll down along the slope from the front of the lava flow. On the basis of these tests, we propose a decision-making method that is able to recognize a trend in the LPI similar to that of 2007 eruption, allowing the identification of precursors of effusive phases at the Stromboli volcano.     

New insights on diapirism in the Adriatic Sea: the Tremiti salt structure (Apulia offshore,southeastern Italy)

The reinterpretation of public seismic profiles in the Adriatic offshore of Gargano (Apulia, southern Italy) allowed the detection of a kilometre‐scale salt‐anticline, the Tremiti diapir, within the larger Tremiti Structure. This anticline was generated by diapirism of Upper Triassic anhydrites within a thick Mesozoic to Quaternary sedimentary succession. Both internal stratal patterns and shapes of Plio‐Quaternary units, and the occurrence of an angular unconformity between early Tortonian and Pliocene rocks on the Tremiti Islands, suggest that halokinesis began during the late Miocene and is still active today. An ancient extensional SE‐dipping fault, cutting an older Mesozoic low‐amplitude anhydritic ridge, played an important role during salt mobilization, which was promoted by NW‐SE shortening. The diapir grew in the footwall of this fault, causing its upward propagation. In some places, the ancient fault served as a preferential channel for the upward migration of the anhydrites.     

Subglacially precipitated carbonates record geochemical interactions and pollen preservation at the base of the Laurentide Ice Sheet on central Baffin Island,eastern Canadian Arctic

The mineralogy and isotopic compositions of subglacially precipitated carbonate crusts (SPCCs) provide information on conditions and processes beneath former glaciers and ice sheets. Here we describe SPCCs formed on gneissic bedrock at the bed of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) during the last glacial maximum on central Baffin Island. Geochemical data indicate that the Ca in the crusts was likely derived from the subglacial chemical weathering Ca-bearing minerals in the local bedrock. C and Sr isotopic analyses reveal that the C in the calcite was derived predominantly from older plant debris. The δ¹⁸O values of the SPCCs suggest that these crusts formed in isotopic equilibrium with basal ice LIS preserved in the Barnes Ice Cap (BIC). Columnar crystal fabric and the predominance of sparite over micrite in the SPCCs are indicative of carbonate precipitation under open-system conditions. However, the mean δ¹⁸O value of the calcite crusts is ~ 10‰ higher than those of primary LIS ice preserved in the BIC, demonstrating that SPCCs record the isotopic composition of only basal ice. Palynomorph assemblages preserved within the calcite and basal BIC ice include species last endemic to the Arctic in the early Tertiary. The source of these palynomorphs remains enigmatic.     

Analysis of Titan CH4 3.3 μm upper atmospheric emission as measured by Cassini/VIMS

After molecular nitrogen, methane is the most abundant species in Titan’s atmosphere and plays a major role in its energy budget and its chemistry. Methane has strong bands at 3.3 μm emitting mainly at daytime after absorption of solar radiation. This emission is strongly affected by non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (non-LTE) in Titan’s upper atmosphere and, hence, an accurate modeling of the non-LTE populations of the emitting vibrational levels is necessary for its analysis. We present a sophisticated and extensive non-LTE model which considers 22 CH₄ levels and takes into account all known excitation mechanisms in which they take part. Solar absorption is the major excitation process controlling the population of the v₃-quanta levels above 1000 km whereas the distribution of the vibrational energy within levels of similar energy through collisions with N₂ is also of importance below that altitude. CH₄-CH₄ vibrational exchange of v₄-quanta affects their population below 500 km. We found that the ν₃ → ground band dominates Titan’s 3.3 μm daytime limb radiance above 750 km whereas the ν₃ + ν₄ → ν₄ band does below that altitude and down to 300 km. The ν₃ + ν₂ → ν₂, the 2ν₃ → ν₃, and the ¹³CH₄ν₃ → ground bands each contribute from 5% to 8% at regions below 800 km. The ν₃ + 2ν₄ → 2ν₄and ν₂ + ν₃ + ν₄ → ν₂ + ν₄ bands each contribute from 2% to 5% below 650 km. Contributions from other CH₄ bands are negligible. We have used the non-LTE model to retrieve the CH₄ abundance from 500 to 1100 km in the southern hemisphere from Cassini-VIMS daytime measurements near 3.3 μm. Our retrievals show good agreement with previous measurements and model results, supporting a weak deviation from well mixed values from the lower atmosphere up to 1000 km.