Constrained variants of the gravity model and spatial dependence: model specification and estimation issues

In this paper, we distinguish three constrained variants of the gravity model of spatial interaction: doubly constrained, production constrained and attraction constrained exponential gravity models. These model variants include origin- and/or destination-specific balancing factors that act as constraints to ensure that the estimated rows and columns of the flow data matrix sum to the observed row and column totals. Because flows are typically counts, the Poisson rather than the normal probability model specification furnishes the appropriate statistical distribution, and parameter estimation can be achieved via Poisson regression. This probability model specification motivates the use of origin and/or destination fixed effects or—under certain conditions—the use of origin- and/or destination-specific random effects for model estimation. The paper establishes theoretical connections between balancing factors, fixed effects represented by binary indicator variables and random effects. The results pertaining to both the doubly and singly constrained cases of spatial interaction are illustrated with an empirical example while accounting for spatial dependence between flows from locations neighbouring both the origins and destinations during estimation.     

EGS hydraulic stimulation monitoring by surface arrays - location accuracy and completeness magnitude: the Basel Deep Heat Mining Project case study

The potential and limits of monitoring induced seismicity by surface-based mini arrays was evaluated for the hydraulic stimulation of the Basel Deep Heat Mining Project. This project aimed at the exploitation of geothermal heat from a depth of about 4,630?m. As reference for our results, a network of borehole stations by Geothermal Explorers Ltd. provided ground truth information. We utilized array processing, sonogram event detection and outlier-resistant, graphical jackknife location procedures to compensate for the decrease in signal-to-noise ratio at the surface. We could correctly resolve the NNW?CSSE striking fault plane by relative master event locations. Statistical analysis of our catalog data resulted in M _L 0.36 as completeness magnitude, but with significant day-to-night dependency. To compare to the performance of borehole data with M _W 0.9 as completeness magnitude, we applied two methods for converting M _L to M _W which raised our M _C to M _W in the range of 0.99?C1.13. Further, the b value for the duration of our measurement was calculated to 1.14 (related to M _L), respectively 1.66 (related to M _W), but changes over time could not be resolved from the error bars.     

Modelling the impact of ocean warming on melting and water masses of ice shelves in the Eastern Weddell Sea

The Eastern Weddell Ice Shelves (EWIS) are believed to modify the water masses of the coastal current and thus preconditions the water mass formation in the southern and western Weddell Sea. We apply various ocean warming scenarios to investigate the impact on the temperature–salinity distribution and the sub-ice shelf melting in the Eastern Weddell Sea. In our numerical experiments, the warming is imposed homogeneously along the open inflow boundaries of the model domain, leading to a warming of the warm deep water (WDW) further downstream. Our modelling results indicate a weak quadratic dependence of the melt rate at the ice shelf base on the imposed amount of warming, which is consistent with earlier studies. The total melt rate has a strong dependence on the applied ocean warming depth. If the warming is restricted to the upper ocean (above 1,000  m), the water column (aside from the mixed surface layer) in the vicinity of the ice shelves stabilises. Hence, reduced vertical mixing will reduce the potential of Antarctic Bottom Water formation further downstream with consequences on the global thermohaline circulation. If the warming extends to the abyss, the WDW core moves significantly closer to the continental shelf break. This sharpens the Antarctic Slope Front and leads to a reduced density stratification. In contrast to the narrow shelf bathymetry in the EWIS region, a wider continental shelf (like in the southern Weddell Sea) partly protects ice shelves from remote ocean warming. Hence, the freshwater production rate of, e.g., the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf increases much less compared with the EWIS for identical warming scenarios. Our study therefore indicates that the ice-ocean interaction has a significant impact on the temperature-salinity distribution and the water column stability in the vicinity of ice shelves located along a narrow continental shelf. The effects of ocean warming and the impact of increased freshwater fluxes on the circulation are of the same order of magnitude and superimposed. Therefore, a consideration of this interaction in large-scale climate studies is essential.     

Fluvial response to climatic and anthropogenic forcing in the Moselle drainage basin (NE France) during historical periods: evidence from OSL dating

The aim of this paper is to study a low energy fluvial system response to natural and anthropogenic forcing during the last two millennia. In contrast with longer timescales (Holocene to Quaternary), historical sedimentary archives are sparse in such systems which are typically characterized by the predominance of erosion compared with aggradation. We studied three main sections in the Moselle valley (northeastern France) by a multi‐proxy approach combining morphology, sedimentology, archaeological evidence, historical archives, and dating. The geochronological framework was based on Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) and validated by independent age control. The exposed sediments were allocated to different historical periods from Roman period to present. The first results show that, in contrast with many other fluvial systems, the Moselle and its tributaries did not experience major changes during historical periods. Climatic changes such as the Little Ice Age had a minor influence on floodplain aggradation (e.g. in grain size or sedimentation rates) in the Moselle valley and were only able to affect the fluvial style. This provides evidence that the reworking of sediments is the main fluvial process at short timescales in the valley floors of the Moselle catchment. In contrast, anthropogenic forcing seems important not only during recent centuries but also since Roman times. This is suggested by the case‐study of the Metz‐Mazelle section where significant headward erosion and sedimentation were recognized, and may be related to human occupation. The results therefore point to a need for increasing geoarchaeological and geochronological research in the Moselle catchment and similar low energy fluvial systems. Such research is actually essential to improve the knowledge of the fluvial response to environmental changes during the historical periods and to recognize the respective influence of natural variability and human forcing. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mineral chemistry of a Cenozoic igneous complex,the Urumieh–Dokhtar magmatic belt,Iran: Petrological implications for the plutonic rocks

The Niyasar plutonic complex, one of the Cenozoic magmatic assemblages in the Urumieh‐Dokhtar magmatic belt, was the subject of detailed petrographic and mineralogical investigations. The Niyasar magmatic complex is composed of Eocene to Oligocene mafic rocks and Miocene granitoids. Eleven samples, representing the major rock units in the Niyasar magmatic complex and contact aureole were chosen for mineral chemical studies and for estimation of the pressure, temperature, and oxygen fugacity conditions of mineral crystallization during emplacement of various magmatic bodies. The analyzed samples are composed of varying proportions of quartz, plagioclase, K‐feldspar, hornblende, biotite, titanite, magnetite, apatite, zircon, garnet, and clinopyroxene. Application of the Al‐in‐hornblende barometer indicates pressures of around 0.2 to 0.4 kbar for the Eocene–Oligocene mafic bodies and around 0.5 to 1.7 kbar for the Miocene granitoids. Hornblende‐plagioclase thermometry yields relatively low temperatures (661–780 °C), which probably reflect late stage re‐equilibration of these minerals. The assemblage titanite–magnetite–quartz as well as hornblende composition were used to constrain the oxygen fugacity and H₂O content during the crystallization of the parent magmas in the Miocene plutons. The results show that the Miocene granitoids crystallized from magmas with relatively high oxygen fugacity and high H₂O content (~5 wt% H₂O). The Miocene granitoids show similar range of oxygen fugacity, H₂O contents and mineral chemical compositions, which indicate a common source for their magmas. Although the crystallization pressures of the Miocene plutons discriminate various categories of plutonic bodies emplaced at depths of about 5.7–6.5 km (Marfioun pluton), about 4.2 km (Ghalhar pluton) and 1.9–2.3 km (Poudalg pluton), they were later uplifted to the same level by vertical displacement of faults. The emplacement depths of the Niyasar plutons suggest that the central part of the Urumieh‐Dokhtar magmatic belt has experienced an uplift rate of ca. 0.25–0.4 mm/yr from the Miocene onwards.     

New insights into the age and formation of the Ankarokaroka lavaka and its associated sandy cover (NW Madagascar,Ankarafantsika natural reserve)

Lavaka represent a typical erosional landform in Madagascar. The chronology of their formation remains, however, under discussion. Our research focuses on the Ankarokaroka lavaka, a spectacular landform located in NW Madagascar (Ankarafantsika natural reserve), which is characterized by the presence of sandy units of regional extension at its top. The two main units correspond to white and red sands, and are closely associated with specific vegetations (dry dense forest for the white sands, savannah grasslands for the red sands). We applied a geochronological approach based on Optically Stimulated Luminescence (for the coversands) associated with radiocarbon dating performed on archaeological remains found at the contact between the sands and the lavaka. The combination of this approach with field work and sedimentological analyses makes it possible to show that the sands experienced a complex history, both in terms of sedimentation and post‐sedimentary pedogenesis (podzolization of the white sands, rubefaction of the red sands). The numerical ages furthermore indicate that the Ankarokaroka lavaka formed between 18.5 ± 2.3 ka ago and the 14th century AD. The present study demonstrates that this lavaka has a climatic origin, and highlights the potential of OSL to date sediments associated with Madagascar lavaka. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of ionizing radiation on the survival of bacterial spores in artificial martian regolith

Bacterial spores of Bacillus subtilis were used as a model system to study the effects of ionizing radiation on the survivability of spores uncovered and covered with artificial martian regolith. Spore survival after X-ray exposure was mainly depending on the role of non-homologous end-joining (NHEJ) as the major DNA double-strand break repair pathway during germination, the involvement of major small, acid-soluble spore proteins (SASP) as DNA radioprotectants and the coverage by martian regolith, whereas spores covered with martian regolith were significantly more sensitive to X-rays than uncovered spores, which is mainly due to the interaction of X-rays with artificial martian regolith resulting in the formation of secondary electrons and reactive oxygen species.     

Human activities and environmental stress: some essentials revisited1

Current pollution of the total environment is caused by waste products of the extrasomatic metabolism of Homo sapiens who, since the beginnings of the industrial revolution, has raised his energy consumption by a factor of 10–20 above the basic metabolic rate of the single individual. While the increased energy flow through the human ecosystem has brought about an improvement of the human condition unprecedented in the history of mankind (including a doubling of the average life expectancy), it is beset also with an intrinsic maladaptive potential for the possible emergence of an autotoxic effect. The future of high-energy (industrial) societies will, accordingly depend on man's capability to maintain an adequate energy flow while hopefully minimizing the potential impact of autotoxicity on his environment by suitable technological fixes.