南极普里兹湾及邻近南大洋水体N_2O分布特征

利用中国第25、26次南极科学考察航次获得南极普里兹湾及邻近南大洋附近水样,采用顶空气相色谱法分析其中N_2O含量,结果表明普里兹湾陆架水体N_2O浓度较低,介于13.2―17.4 nmol·L~(-1),且呈现不饱和状态,饱和度异常值为-7%;而普里兹湾附近南大洋水体中N_2O浓度较高,介于15.5―23.3 nmol·L-1,除表面一层极薄的不饱和层外,中层至底层水体相对工业革命前大气浓度为高度过饱和状态。该区域N_2O的分布格局与复杂的水团特性和水文过程有密切关系。N_2O含量不饱和的普里兹湾陆架水(SW)和绕极深层流(CDW)混合下沉形成南极底层水(AABW),可能为温室气体N_2O提供向深层海洋输运的通路。这个过程为大气N_2O提供了一个汇的机制,使南极近岸水体成为大气N_2O的汇区。     

西南某巨型水电站坝区推覆断层研究

马家河坝断层发育于金沙江某巨型水电站库区,距坝址最近仅3km,且沿江两岸出露,主断面不同部分和次级断层结构样式和变形特征复杂。所以对断层的认识一直是大坝稳定性评价的重点也是争论的焦点。通过大比例尺野外填图、开挖平硐和室内构造解析获得了大量新资料,认为该断层是一个发育在地台内部的小型推覆构造。首次厘定了断层几何学和运动学特征和影响范围,分析了断层的动力学机制。这对大坝的施工和蓄水后的安全运行有重大意义。     

华北东部地区的共轭地震破裂与地质构造

本文研究了华北东部地区地震与地质构造的关系。对该地区１９６６－１９７６年发生的５次强震的震源机制、地震形变一、余震活动、极震区等震线、地形变制量资料进行了综合分析，发现华北东部地区地震破裂具有在强度上不对称的共轭剪切破裂特征；地震破裂相对于地质构造具有突出的新生性。     

天山南北前陆冲断带构造滑脱层分布差异及对圈闭样式的控制作用

天山南北前陆冲断带具有较强的差异变形特征,滑脱层的差异对前陆冲断带变形特征及圈闭样式的影响较大,对于天山南北油气勘探具有重要意义。以地震资料解释为基础,通过断距测量、缩短量统计及平衡剖面复原等手段,对天山南北前陆冲断带构造变形差异进行研究,取得如下认识:(1)天山南北前陆冲断带滑脱层性质不同,库车前陆冲断带以古近系膏盐岩为滑脱层,分层变形特征显著;准噶尔盆地南缘前陆冲断带深层断层多穿过滑脱层,分层性差;(2)天山南北前陆冲断带新生代构造变形差异明显,库车前陆冲断带在该时期的平均缩短率为12.1%,准噶尔盆地南缘前陆冲断带的平均缩短率为9.93%,库车前陆冲断带的新生代变形强度比准噶尔盆地南缘前陆冲断带更强;(3)受滑脱层差异的影响,库车前陆冲断带滑脱层上下平均断距总体大于准噶尔盆地南缘前陆冲断带,且库车前陆冲断带的缩短量呈现“单段多峰”复杂的变化趋势,这是准噶尔盆地南缘前陆冲断带没有的特点,表明库车前陆冲断带滑脱层塑性和分层能力比准噶尔盆地南缘前陆冲断带强;(4)基于天山南北前陆冲断带断层活动和滑脱层差异的影响,准噶尔盆地南缘前陆冲断带以岩性—构造的复合圈闭为主,而库车前陆冲断带以盐下大型构造圈闭为主,岩性—构造圈闭为辅。准噶尔盆地南缘前陆冲断带深层和库车前陆冲断带的侏罗系—三叠系煤层、泥岩层等滑脱层控制的岩性—构造圈闭是未来油气勘探的有利目标。     

Spectral Analysis based on Wavelet Transform Maxima: Identification of Multi-order Stratigraphic Boundaries and Cycles

In sedimentology, stratigraphic sequences and cycles are ordered by time spans and physical scales, such as thickness, and bounded by discontinuities, including unconformities or flooding surfaces. Spectral analysis based on wavelet transform (WT) maxima is proposed and used as a quantitative tool to identify multi-order stratigraphic boundaries and cycles in well log data. The proposed spectral analysis is based on quantitative analysis on the center frequencies and resolutions of Gaussian wavelets in time and frequency, and uses a combination of the WT maxima based on both the first order Gaussian wavelet having a high time resolution and the seventh order Gaussian wavelet having a high frequency resolution. WT maxima spectra, which can characterize the evolution of WT maxima across scales and periods along WT maxima lines concerned with sequence boundaries, are used to detect dominant spectral peaks corresponding to the time-period domain WT maxima and to determine WT maxima spectral slopes. The WT maxima spectral slopes are helpful for discriminating sequence boundaries from intrasequence cyclic variations in well log data, and the time-period domain WT maxima are used to relate the detected boundaries to relevant cycles. The interval WT maxima spectra and the stationary index, related to the WT maxima spectra, are introduced as indicators that can be used for the hierarchical ordering of the boundaries and cycles. Application of the proposed method to well log data shows that the suggested method is efficient in identifying multi-order sequences that relate well to the Milankovitch cycles.

     

台风路径多模式集成预报技术研究

利用NCEP、ECMWF、日本数值、英国数值、上海台风模式和广州模式包含全球模式和区域在内的6家数值模式资料,利用近似SEAV方法,设计台风路径多模式集成预报方法(SHME),并用2014—2016年的台风客观预报数据进行多模式集成预报的效果检验,且与ECMWF模式进行比较,通过比较发现,SHME方法较ECMWF在12～48 h预报上有明显改进,在72～120 h预报2014年尤其突出,2015—2016年均与ECMWF预报效果相当。     

集合同化方法在黄海海域海表面温度同化中的应用

The effects of sea surface temperature(SST) data assimilation in two regional ocean modeling systems were examined for the Yellow Sea(YS). The SST data from the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis(OSTIA) were assimilated. The National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center(NMEFC) modeling system uses the ensemble optimal interpolation method for ocean data assimilation and the Kunsan National University(KNU) modeling system uses the ensemble Kalman filter. Without data assimilation, the NMEFC modeling system was better in simulating the subsurface temperature while the KNU modeling system was better in simulating SST. The disparity between both modeling systems might be related to differences in calculating the surface heat flux, horizontal grid spacing, and atmospheric forcing data. The data assimilation reduced the root mean square error(RMSE) of the SST from 1.78°C(1.46°C) to 1.30°C(1.21°C) for the NMEFC(KNU) modeling system when the simulated temperature was compared to Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature(OISST) SST dataset. A comparison with the buoy SST data indicated a 41%(31%) decrease in the SST error for the NMEFC(KNU) modeling system by the data assimilation. In both data assimilative systems, the RMSE of the temperature was less than 1.5°C in the upper 20 m and approximately 3.1°C in the lower layer in October. In contrast, it was less than 1.0°C throughout the water column in February. This study suggests that assimilations of the observed temperature profiles are necessary in order to correct the lower layer temperature during the stratified season and an ocean modeling system with small grid spacing and optimal data assimilation method is preferable to ensure accurate predictions of the coastal ocean in the YS.     

Research on the effect of straw mulching on the soil moisture by field experiment in the piedmont plain of the Taihang Mountains

To reveal the influencing effect of the long-term straw mulching on the soil moisture, this paper employed the field experiment data in 2010 of a typical area of Taihang Mountains plain, observed the soil moisture dynamic regularities under different mulching patterns by virtue of depressimeter and neutron probe, analyzed the characteristics of soil water content and storage in different depths and seasons under the long-term straw mulching. The results showed that the long-term straw mulching can keep the soil moisture conservation of the deep, while decreased the shallow. (1) The long-term straw mulching can changed the type of soil water movement. If no straw mulching, the type is mainly evaporation-infiltration. And with straw mantle the type would change into infiltration. The number of zero flux plane would be reduced or absent. (2) The long-term straw mulching can increase the soil water reserves of the whole soil profile with the depth between 0 cm and 220 cm. But the soil water content of the layer from 30 cm to 80 cm decreased and the soil water content of the layer from 80 cm to 220 cm increased instead., The effect of soil moisture conservation on winter wheat is not obvious; (3) With no straw mulching, the depth of infiltration recharge by rainfall or irrigation is shallower than 80 cm. In a straw mulching, the influence depth is can extend to 120 cm; (4) With no straw mulching , there is a deep layer on the depth of 220 cm between March and June, while this layer will disappear with a long-term straw mulching.     

The Impact of Volcanic Eruption on Decadal-Scale Climate Prediction Skill of Pacic Sea Surface Temperatures in the IAP Near-Term Climate Prediction System(IAP DecPreS)

Explosive volcanic eruptions are known to be a leading cause of natural climate change. There has been a growing recognition that there is a measurable climate system response even to moderate-sized volcanic eruptions. In this study, we investigated the hindcast skills of the Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) using the hindcast experiments based on the near-term climate prediction system DecPreS developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP)(hereafter DP-EnOI-IAU experiments). The DP-EnOI-IAU experiments were run for initial years from 1960 to 2005. These hindcasts took into account observed stratospheric aerosol concentrations that included the four large tropical volcanic eruptions during that period. The time evolution over the entire hindcast period for skill in predicting the patterns of the 3~7 year prediction averages for Pacific SSTs showed that there was statistically significant skill for most years except for a dramatic drop in skill during the 1980s and 1990s. Decadal hindcast skill is reduced if the post-eruption model response deviates the internal El Niño variability in the observations. The simulations showed a post-eruption SST of a La Niña-like pattern in the third northern winter after the 1982 El Chichon eruption and a El Niño-like pattern after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, which were opposite in sign to what was in the observations. This lead to the loss of hindcast skill for years in the 1980s and 1990s affected by the eruptions. Agung (1963) happened to have post-eruption Pacific SSTs more similar to the observations and thus did not degrade prediction skill in the hindcasts.     

Spatial distribution,mineralogy, and weathering of heavy metals in soils along zinc-concentrate ground transportation routes: implication for assessing heavy metal sources

We investigated the source of heavy metals in soils at a site in South Korea, where a ground transportation of zinc-concentrates (ZnS, sphalerite) occurs daily. Seventy soil samples were collected at the site and analyzed for residual concentrations of heavy metals, as well as their chemical and mineralogical properties. Enrichment factor was calculated based on local geochemical background level of metals in soils and confirmed the contamination of soils in the area by an anthropogenic source. The concentration data were also subjected to a Pearson correlation analysis to determine the possible influences of anthropogenic sources and identify the primary source. A slight negative correlation between heavy metals and Al, and a weak correlation between heavy metals and Fe implied that the heavy metals originated from anthropogenic inputs rather than a geogenic source. A strong positive linear correlation between Zn and other heavy metals (i.e., As, Cd, Cu, Pb, r ≥ 0.96, p ≤ 0.001) suggested the influence of a single anthropogenic source of zinc-concentrates containing all of these heavy metals. Zinc-concentrate oxidation and leaching experiments, which mimicked physical and chemical weathering in the environment, indicated that zinc-concentrate could be transformed to zinc oxides and release Cd and Pb upon precipitation. The findings in this study provide an insight into the fate of the Zn that the original form of zinc-concentrate would not remain in the soil after long-term weathering, which should be considered when source of heavy metals is identified.