Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo,Egypt

The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m _b  = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is “what if this earthquake is repeated today.” In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that “the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times” in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety and collapse prevention in future earthquakes, a five-step road map has been purposed.     

Crop evapotranspiration in the Nile Delta under different irrigation methods

Eddy correlation measurements within the Nile Delta allowed the determination of evapotranspiration (E) for seven crops (rice, maize, cotton, sugar beet, berseem, wheat and fava beans) using basin irrigation (BI), furrow irrigation (FI), BI with increased intervals (BI_i), FI with increased intervals (FI_i), strip irrigation (SI) and drip irrigation (DI). Total E values over the cropping season for rice (BI, BI_i) were the highest (>600 mm), while those for sugar beet (DI), maize (SI and DI) and berseem (BI_i) were the lowest (<250 mm). The differences were due to a combination of atmospheric demand, soil moisture, the presence of surface standing water, root depth, and the length and timing of the cropping season. The DI and SI methods had the advantage for water saving, while the FI_i and BI_i methods were effective for crops with shallow root lengths. Estimated annual E was 566–828 mm/year (water-saving irrigation) and 875–1225 mm/year (conventional irrigation).     

Geodynamic Evolution of Northeastern Tunisia During the Maastrichtian–Paleocene Time: Insights from Integrated Seismic Stratigraphic Analysis

The Maastrichtian–Paleocene El Haria formation was studied and defined in Tunisia on the basis of outcrops and borehole data; few studies were interested in its three-dimensional extent. In this paper, the El Haria formation is reviewed in the context of a tectono-stratigraphic interval using an integrated seismic stratigraphic analysis based on borehole lithology logs, electrical well logging, well shots, vertical seismic profiles and post-stack surface data. Seismic analysis benefits from appropriate calibration with borehole data, conventional interpretation, velocity mapping, seismic attributes and post-stack model-based inversion. The applied methodology proved to be powerful for charactering the marly Maastrichtian–Paleocene interval of the El Haria formation. Migrated seismic sections together with borehole measurements are used to detail the three-dimensional changes in thickness, facies and depositional environment in the Cap Bon and Gulf of Hammamet regions during the Maastrichtian–Paleocene time. Furthermore, dating based on their microfossil content divulges local and multiple internal hiatuses within the El Haria formation which are related to the geodynamic evolution of the depositional floor since the Campanian stage. Interpreted seismic sections display concordance, unconformities, pinchouts, sedimentary gaps, incised valleys and syn-sedimentary normal faulting. Based on the seismic reflection geometry and terminations, seven sequences are delineated. These sequences are related to base-level changes as the combination of depositional floor paleo-topography, tectonic forces, subsidence and the developed accommodation space. These factors controlled the occurrence of the various parts of the Maastrichtian–Paleocene interval. Detailed examinations of these deposits together with the analysis of the structural deformation at different time periods allowed us to obtain a better understanding of the sediment architecture in depth and the delineation of the geodynamic evolution of the region.     

Application of two fuzzy models using knowledge-based and linear aggregation approaches to identifying flooding-prone areas in Tehran

Flooding is one of the most problematic natural events affecting urban areas. In this regard, developing flooding models plays a crucial role in reducing flood-induced losses and assists city managers to determine flooding-prone areas (FPAs). The aim of this study is to investigate on the prediction capability of fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) and Mamdani fuzzy inference system (MFIS) methods as two completely and semi-knowledge-based models to identify FPAs in Tehran, Iran. Six flooding conditioning factors including density of channel, distance from channel, land use, elevation, slope, and water discharge were extracted from various geo-spatial datasets. A total of 62 flooding locations were identified in the study area based on the existing reports and field surveys. Of these, 44 (70%) floods were randomly selected as training data and the remaining 18 (30%) cases were used for the validation purposes. After the data preparation step, data were processed by means of two statistical (FAHP) and soft computing (MFIS) methods. Unlike most statistical and soft computing approaches which use flooding inventory data for both training and evaluation of models, only conditioning factor was involved in data processing and inventory data were used in the current study to assess models prediction accuracy. Also, the efficiency of two approaches was evaluated by pixel matching (PM) and area under curve to validate the prediction capability of models. The prediction rate for MFIS and FAHP was 89% and 84%, respectively. Moreover, according to the results obtained from PM, it was found out that about 90% of known flooding locations fell in high-risk areas, whereas it was 83% for FAHP, indicating that flooding susceptibility map of MFIS has higher performance.

     

Flood risk perception and its determinants among rural households in two communities in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,Pakistan

Natural Hazards - Risk perception plays a vital part in flood risk management and mitigation strategies. Therefore, this study aims at first to measure the risk perception of the vulnerable...     

Separation of magnetic anomalies into induced and remanent magnetization contributions

Inversion of magnetic data is complicated by the presence of remanent magnetization, and it provides limited information about the magnetic source because of the insufficiency of data and constraint information. We propose a Fourier domain transformation allowing the separation of magnetic anomalies into the components caused by induced and remanent magnetizations. The approach is based on the hypothesis that each isolated source is homogeneous with a uniform and specific Koenigsberger ratio. The distributions of susceptibility and remanent magnetization are subsequently recovered from the separated anomalies. Anomaly components, susceptibility distribution and distribution of the remanent and total magnetization vectors (direction and intensity) can be achieved through the processing of the anomaly components. The proposed method therefore provides a procedure to test the hypotheses about target source and magnetic field, by verifying these models based on available information or a priori information from geology. We test our methods using synthetic and real data acquired over the Zhangfushan iron-ore deposit and the Yeshan polymetallic deposit in eastern China. All the tests yield favourable results and the obtained models are helpful for the geological interpretation.     

Detrital zircon provenance analysis in the Zagros Orogen,SW Iran: implications for the amalgamation history of the Neo-Tethys

International Journal of Earth Sciences - The Zagros Orogen developed as a result of Arabia–Eurasia collision. New in situ detrital zircon U–Pb and Hf isotopic analyses from a Cenozoic...     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the northeastern part of Algeria

This work involves updating the evaluation of seismic hazard in Northeast Algeria by a probabilistic approach. This reassessment attempts to resolve inconsistencies between seismic zoning in regional building codes and is further motivated by the need to refine the input data that are used to evaluate seismic hazard scenarios. We adopted a seismotectonic model that accounts for differences in interpretations of regional seismicity. We then performed a probabilistic assessment of regional seismic hazard in Northeast Algeria. Based on a homogeneous earthquake catalog and geological and seismotectonic data gathered in the first part of the study, a seismotectonic zoning map was created and seven risk areas were identified. For each area, peak ground acceleration hazard maps were produced. Details of the calculations are provided, including hazard curves at periods of 0.1, 0.2, 0.33, 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0 s and uniform hazard spectra at urban locations in the area, including Sétif, Constantine, Kherrata, Bejaia, and Jijel.     

Discussion of “Interfacing the geographic information system,remote sensing,and the soil conservation service-curve number method to estimate curve number and runoff volume in the ASIR region of Saudi Arabia” by Fawzi S. Mohammad,Jan Adamowski

The soil conservation service curve number (SCS-CN) method is one of the most commonly used methods to compute the direct runoff from a rainfall event. Since the method was established, numerous researches were undertaken to improve the method through accurate estimation of its parameter and especially the curve number (CN). However, the essence of the SCS method, as an event-based Hortonian mechanism method, remained unchanged. The main assumption of the method related to the rainfall input is that the rainfall is continuous in time and uniform over the watershed. Mohammad and Adamowski (2015) paper apparently used the SCS method to estimate the annual runoff using the annual rainfall as one cumulative rainfall input value, which is a violation of the event-based principle of the method and of the assumption of the continuity of the rainfall event.To re-estimate the average annual runoff more realistically for the Asir region, Saudi Arabia, daily rainfall data from 14 rainfall stations are used for calculating the resulting runoff depths, on a daily event-by-event rainfall basis, throughout the whole simulation period. The resulting runoff depths are added for each year, and the total cumulative annual runoff values for each year are averaged to get the average annual runoff. The runoff values based on the previously mentioned procedure are an upper limit of the actual average annual runoff as the underlying SCS equations discard evaporation and similar long-term losses. Nevertheless, the average runoff values obtained in the discussion paper are an order of magnitude (at least five to tenfold) lower than the ones of the original paper. An equation is proposed to obtain a more realistic estimate of the average annual runoff, to be used with the average annual rainfall as an input, if the annual value is the only available rainfall information.     

Regional modeling of dust storm of February 8, 2015 in the southwest of Iran

According to World Meteorological Organization report in 2015, the southwest of Iran has become one of the dust sources in the region. And the objective of this research is to study the dust storms originating in this region. For this purpose, based on the weather data of 14 stations, the dust storms of the region were investigated, and the dust storm of February 7, 2015, was selected due to its very high concentration of dust particles (66 times the normal values). For the analysis of source areas and storm paths, the FNL data was used. The regional models of Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS), Barcelona Supercomputing Centre-Dust Regional Atmospheric Model 8b (DREAM 8b), Non-hydrostatic Multiscale Model Barcelona Supercomputing Center (NMMB/BSC), and hybrid single-particle Lagrangian integrated trajectory (HYSPLIT) were used to study and analyze the selected storm. The results showed that the dust event in February 8, 2016, has been the result of the polar front jet stream (PJF) caused by western immigrant system that had been over the Sahara in Africa, the deserts of Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and finally southwest of Iran in making the extreme dust event. According to the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data and point models of NAAPS, optical depth was very high. The DREAM 8b and NMMB/BSC models confirmed the impact of the local factors and closeness to the dust source regions. The backward tracking of the model with the HYSPLIT model showed three tracks transporting the dust particles to the region. This software also showed that the dust particles occupied an atmospheric tunnel of 1.5 km in diameter.