TITAN2D simulations of pyroclastic flows at Cerro Machín Volcano,Colombia: Hazard implications

Cerro Machín is a dacitic tuff ring located in the central part of the Colombian Andes. It lies at the southern end of the Cerro Bravo–Cerro Machín volcanic belt. This volcano has experienced at least six major explosive eruptions during the last 5000 years. These eruptions have generated pyroclastic flows associated with Plinian activity that have traveled up to 8 km from the crater, and pyroclastic flows associated with Vulcanian activity with shorter runouts of 5 km from the source. Today, some 21,000 people live within a 8 km radius of Cerro Machín. The volcano is active with fumaroles and has shown increasing seismic activity since 2004, and therefore represents a potentially increasing threat to the local population. To evaluate the possible effects of future eruptions that may generate pyroclastic density currents controlled by granular flow dynamics we performed flow simulations with the TITAN2D code. These simulations were run in all directions around the volcano, using the input parameters of the largest eruption reported. The results show that an eruption of 0.3 km³ of pyroclastic flows from a collapsing Plinian column would travel up to 9 km from the vent, emplacing a deposit thicker than 60 m within the Toche River valley. Deposits >45 m thick can be expected in the valleys of San Juan, Santa Marta, and Azufral creeks, while 30 m thick deposits could accumulate within the drainages of the Tochecito, Bermellón, and Coello Rivers. A minimum area of 56 km² could be affected directly by this kind of eruption. In comparison, Vulcanian column-collapse pyroclastic flows of 0.1 km³ would travel up to 6 km from the vent depositing >45 m thick debris inside the Toche River valley and more than 30 m inside the valleys of San Juan, Santa Marta, and Azufral creeks. The minimum area that could be affected directly by this kind of eruption is 33 km². The distribution and thickness of the deposits obtained by these simulations are consistent with the hazard map presented by INGEOMINAS (Geological Survey of Colombia) in 2002. The composite map of the simulated flow deposits suggests that after major explosive events such as these, the generation of lahars is probable.     

Characterizing the hydraulic properties of unsaturated sand considering various porosities and drying‐wetting paths of the retention curve

Previous studies have shown that water retention curve (WRC) and the hydraulic conductivity vary because of changes of the void ratio or porosity of soil. However, limited documents pointed out the change of hydraulic properties of soil when compacted to different porosities while considering both of the drying and wetting processes of the WRC. This information is sometimes necessary for research like finger flow analysis or the occurrence of wetting and drying cycles as what would be seen in the field. Therefore, this study aims to examine the change of WRC characteristics with varied porosity considering both of the drying and wetting path in WRC by conducting a sand box experiment. Results show that the same type of sand compacted to various porosities have different hydraulic parameters. Hydraulic conductivities generally decrease with reduced porosities; shape parameter α of the van Genuchten equation (1980) linearly decreases with declining porosity and shape parameter n in a reversal manner for the sands of interest whether in the drying process or wetting process. The unsaturated properties of sand are further characterized by inspecting the variations of moisture content, matric suction and vertical displacement of soil body subject to periodic changes of the water level by another sand box experiment. The outcomes suggest that the saturated water content and residual water content are changing during the wetting–drying process, which can be an implication of the changed properties of WRC. The characteristics of volumetric deformation might be varied as well because of the observation of the dissimilar patterns of the changing vertical displacements among each wetting–drying process. Infiltration patterns of the sands also are identified through numerical modelling by introducing a constant infiltration flux from the surface followed by a no‐influx condition. Results indicate that less water accumulates in the sand near the surface for the sand compacted to higher porosity, but water can move deeper. Hydraulic conductivity is found as the prime factor dominating the evolvement of wetting fronts. However, shape parameters of water retention curves also affect the infiltration pattern to some extent. In addition, different sands with similar porosities can have quite different infiltrating characteristics. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Linking past flood frequencies in Norway to regional atmospheric circulation anomalies

Analysis of two continuous, high‐resolution palaeo‐flood records from southern Norway reveals that the frequency of extreme flood events has changed significantly during the Holocene. During the early and middle Holocene, flood frequency was low; by contrast, it was high over the last 2300 years when the mean flood frequency was about 2.5–3.0 per century. The present regional discharge regime is dominated by spring/summer snowmelt, and our results indicate that the changing flood frequency cannot be explained by local conditions associated with the respective catchments of the two lakes, but rather long‐term variations of solid winter precipitation and related snowmelt. Applying available instrumental winter precipitation data and associated sea‐level pressure re‐analysis data as a modern analogue, we document that atmospheric circulation anomalies, significantly different from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), have some potential in explaining the variability of the two different palaeo‐flood records. Centennial‐scale patterns in shifting flood frequency might be indicative of shifts in atmospheric circulation and shed light on palaeo‐pressure variations in the North Atlantic region, in areas not influenced by the NAO. Major shifts are found at about 2300, 1200 and 200 years ago (cal. a BP). Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trends,drivers and impacts of changes in swidden cultivation in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers: A global assessment

This meta-analysis of land-cover transformations of the past 10–15 years in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers world-wide shows that swidden agriculture decreases in landscapes with access to local, national and international markets that encourage cattle production and cash cropping, including biofuels. Conservation policies and practices also accelerate changes in swidden by restricting forest clearing and encouraging commercial agriculture. However, swidden remains important in many frontier areas where farmers have unequal or insecure access to investment and market opportunities, or where multi-functionality of land uses has been preserved as a strategy to adapt to current ecological, economic and political circumstances. In some areas swidden remains important simply because intensification is not a viable choice, for example when population densities and/or food market demands are low. The transformation of swidden landscapes into more intensive land uses has generally increased household incomes, but has also led to negative effects on the social and human capital of local communities to varying degrees. From an environmental perspective, the transition from swidden to other land uses often contributes to permanent deforestation, loss of biodiversity, increased weed pressure, declines in soil fertility, and accelerated soil erosion. Our prognosis is that, despite the global trend towards land use intensification, in many areas swidden will remain part of rural landscapes as the safety component of diversified systems, particularly in response to risks and uncertainties associated with more intensive land use systems.     

蔚县矿区岩溶水供排结合研究

本文从系统观点出发,分析了矿区岩溶水供排结合的水文地质条件,提出了以供代排,合理的规划蔚县矿区地下水资源的供排结合方案。应用有限元数值模拟与最优化技术建立供排结合水量规划的教学模型,求出了蔚县矿区最佳水源地位置和最佳的供水开采量与疏干量,实现了较好的经济效益。     

Activity-composition relations in FeTiO3-MnTiO3 ilmenite solid solutions from EMF measurements at 1050–1300 K

The activity of FeTiO₃ in the binary ilmenitepyrophanite (FeTiO₃-MnTiO₃) solid solution has been determined for the temperature range 1050–1300 K by displacement of the reaction: 2 FeTiO₃=2 Fe+2 TiO₂+O₂ in T-O₂ space, using an electrochemical technique with calcia- and yttria-stabilized zirconia solid electrolytes. The activities show small positive deviations from ideality, which, although the data are unusually precise, may be perfectly described by the simple regular solution model, with an interaction parameter, W _Fe-Mn ^ilm , of 2.2±0.3 kJ g-atom^–1, which is independent of temperature. This value, together with the experimental data on the partitioning of Fe and Mn between ilmenite and garnet (Pownceby et al. 1987), gives W _Fe-Mn ^gt =1.2±0.5 kJ g-atom^–1 for the almandine-spessartine (Fe₃Al₂Si₃O₁₂-Mn₃Al₂Si₃O₁₂) solid solution.     

The Application of Computerized Pattern Recognition to the Prediction of Mineral Resources

The technique of mineral prediction by pattern recognition has been developed through the applicationof computerized pattern recognition to geological exploration. The principles and computing method of thistechnique as well as some characteristics of its application in geological exploration are expounded in thispaper. Some of the study results gained by the authors in this aspect are also given. which include classifica-tion of oil-field waters. evaluation of gossans of main ore deposits in China, prediction of ore resources inthe Dachang Sn-polymetallic field. and appraisal of Pb and Sn anomalies and prediction of mineral re-sources in southern Hunan. Some of the prediction results have been proved correct.     

烃类微渗漏的地物波谱探测原理与方法研究

通过对新疆塔里木盆地北缘油气谱的实测和分析，结合烃类微渗漏理论，讨论油气信息的波谱特征和遥感直接探测的机理。运用遥感技术探测油气信息，一是探测烃类微渗漏产生的地表理化异常，二是直接探测渗漏运移到地表的烃类物质或土壤吸烃信息。在塔北试验区，烃类组分异常是最直接，最有意义的标志，２．３２－２．３６μｍ的烃类吸收双谷位置，被确定为塔北地区油气遥感探测波段。