Discovering Spatial Interaction Communities from Mobile Phone Data

In the age of Big Data, the widespread use of location‐awareness technologies has made it possible to collect spatio‐temporal interaction data for analyzing flow patterns in both physical space and cyberspace. This research attempts to explore and interpret patterns embedded in the network of phone‐call interaction and the network of phone‐users’ movements, by considering the geographical context of mobile phone cells. We adopt an agglomerative clustering algorithm based on a Newman‐Girvan modularity metric and propose an alternative modularity function incorporating a gravity model to discover the clustering structures of spatial‐interaction communities using a mobile phone dataset from one week in a city in China. The results verify the distance decay effect and spatial continuity that control the process of partitioning phone‐call interaction, which indicates that people tend to communicate within a spatial‐proximity community. Furthermore, we discover that a high correlation exists between phone‐users’ movements in physical space and phone‐call interaction in cyberspace. Our approach presents a combined qualitative‐quantitative framework to identify clusters and interaction patterns, and explains how geographical context influences communities of callers and receivers. The findings of this empirical study are valuable for urban structure studies as well as for the detection of communities in spatial networks.     

Negotiating on location, timing, duration, and participant in agent-mediated joint activity-travel scheduling

Agent-based simulation has become an important modeling approach in activity-travel analysis. Social activities account for a large amount of travel and have an important effect on activity-travel scheduling. Participants in joint activities usually have various options regarding location, participants, and timing and take different approaches to make their decisions. In this context, joint activity participation requires negotiation among agents involved, so that conflicts among the agents can be addressed. Existing mechanisms do not fully provide a solution when utility functions of agents are nonlinear and non-monotonic. Considering activity-travel scheduling in time and space as an application, we propose a novel negotiation approach, which takes into account these properties, such as continuous and discrete issues, and nonlinear and non-monotonic utility functions, by defining a concession strategy and a search mechanism. The results of experiments show that agents having these properties can negotiate efficiently. Furthermore, the negotiation procedure affects individuals’ choices of location, timing, duration, and participants.     

1980－2018年山西省太行山南麓暴雨时空变化特征

基于1980-2018年山西省太行山南麓晋城市5个站点的降水资料,利用小波分析和Mann-Kendall方法,研究了太行山南麓暴雨时空变化特征。结果表明:39年平均年暴雨日数有0.9个,年际变化幅度较小。暴雨量与暴雨日数的空间分布并不一致,1980、1981、1982、1995和1996年暴雨日数较多。分析50-59、60-69、70-79、80-89、90-99、100以上6个暴雨量区间空间分布发现,暴雨的空间分布在不同区间并没有明显的趋同性。年暴雨降水量有不同程度的增加趋势,晋城市下辖5站暴雨量趋势均存在突变,突变时间存在差异,暴雨量在19811983年和19921995年为两个峰值时段,之后有所缓和。39年暴雨时间序列的小波波谱显示,太行山南麓暴雨呈现0~3 a、3~7 a、8~24 a等3类周期准振荡变化规律,各波动周期稳定性和显著性不同。3~7 a出现5个多少准周期振荡,该周期表现较为显著,8~24 a出现2个准振荡周期,且这两个周期非常稳定,具有全域性的特征。晋城市3~7 a的暴雨振荡周期和8~24 a特大暴雨振荡周期与现实非常吻合。     

A multi-model study of atmosphere predictability in coupled ocean–atmosphere systems

Of great importance for guiding numerical weather and climate predictions, understanding predictability of the atmosphere in the ocean − atmosphere coupled system is the first and critical step to understand predictability of the Earth system. However, previous predictability studies based on prefect model assumption usually depend on a certain model. Here we apply the predictability study with the Nonlinear Local Lyapunov Exponent and Attractor Radius to the products of multiple re-analyses and forecast models in several operational centers to realize general predictability of the atmosphere in the Earth system. We first investigated the predictability characteristics of the atmosphere in NCEP, ECMWF and UKMO coupled systems and some of their uncoupled counterparts and other uncoupled systems. Although the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System shows higher skills in geopotential height over the tropics, there is no certain model providing the most precise forecast for all variables on all levels and the multi-model ensemble not always outperforms a single model. Improved low-frequency signals from the air − sea and stratosphere − troposphere interactions that extend predictability of the atmosphere in coupled system suggests the significance of air − sea coupling and stratosphere simulation in practical forecast development, although uncertainties exist in the model representation for physical processes in air − sea interactions and upper troposphere. These inspire further exploration on predictability of ocean and stratosphere as well as sea − ice and land processes to advance our understanding of interactions of Earth system components, thus enhancing weather − climate prediction skills.

     

ANALYSIS OF SETTLEMENT PATTERNS DURING NEOLITHIC AND BRONZE PERIOD AND ITS INFLUENCING FACTORS IN HUALONG COUNTY, QINGHAI PROVINCE,CHINA

依据青海省化隆县考古调查获得的新石器-青铜时代(5.3～2.6kaB.P.)的遗址位置和面积,尝试利用聚落等级和等级规模的方法分析该县新石器-青铜时代的聚落形态演变过程,并结合研究区周边地区的全新世气候记录和考古研究资料分析其可能的影响因素.结果显示:马家窑文化时期(5.4～4.0kaB.P.),化隆县出现具有一定人口规模和整合的聚落系统,可能与适宜气候背景下,农业快速发展导致的人口流动有关;齐家文化时期(4.2～3.8kaB.P.),化隆县人口规模未发生显著变化,没有出现聚落等级,聚落系统结构简单,各聚落之间为平等竞争关系,可能与区域聚落分布梅征改变有关;3.6～2.5kaB.P.,化隆县人口规模增加,三级等级聚落系统明显整合,可能是卡约文化的农业生产水平和生计方式适应气候变化的结果.因此,气候变化、生计模式和人口流动是化隆县新石器-青铜时代聚落形态演变和社会组织结构发展的主要原因.     

STONE KNIFE'S FUNCTION: SIMULATION EXPERIMENT VIA STARCH GRAIN ANALYSIS

淀粉粒分析在国内外环境考古学研究中得到了大量应用,但是目前国内还没有关于淀粉粒分析、石器功能与植物利用关系的现代过程研究.本研究针对石刀这一新石器时代重要的生产和生活工具开展现代过程的模拟实验,尝试利用淀粉粒分析方法验证石刀功能及其加工的植物类型.我们利用打制的简易石片模拟石刀,对未成熟和成熟的小麦(Triticum aestivum L.)进行了共两次割穗操作,提取并观察石片割穗后不同部位表面残留物中的淀粉粒形态及其组合.实验结果表明,石片表面残留物中的淀粉粒主要来源于小麦秸秆;小麦秸秆淀粉粒的A型和B型淀粉粒(未成熟和成熟小麦秸秆淀粉粒——A+B型淀粉粒,含量分别为90.91％和92.59％)分别与其成熟籽粒的A型和B型淀粉粒形态、大小相似,具备形态鉴定的特征;小麦秸秆中还发现了独特的多面体型淀粉粒(未成熟和成熟小麦秸秆多面体型淀粉粒含量分别为9.09％和7.41％),这是小麦种子中缺少的类型.根据本次现代实验模拟的结果,考古遗址出土石刀上提取到的淀粉粒很可能来自于植物收割(或切削)过程的残留物,结合淀粉粒分析、石刀形制和出土状况进行分析,可以获取出土石刀功能与古人类植物利用的信息.     

黑河流域生态—水文过程综合遥感观测联合试验总体设计

介绍了"黑河流域生态—水文过程综合遥感观测联合试验"的背景、科学目标、试验组成和试验方案。试验的总体目标是显著提升对流域生态和水文过程的观测能力,建立国际领先的流域观测系统,提高遥感在流域生态—水文集成研究和水资源管理中的应用能力。由基础试验、专题试验、应用试验、产品与方法研究和信息系统组成。其中,①基础试验:搭载微波辐射计、成像光谱仪、热像仪、激光雷达等航空遥感设备,开展一系列关键生态和水文参量的观测;发展遥感正向模型及反演和估算方法。形成覆盖全流域的水文气象综合观测网,为流域生态—水文模型研究提供更有代表性的模型参数、驱动数据及更高精度的验证数据。构建无线传感器网络,度量生态水文模型所需的若干关键的驱动、参数和模型状态的空间异质性。开展航空遥感定标和地基遥感试验。依托传感器网络,并辅之以地面同步和加密观测,开展遥感产品真实性检验。②专题试验:开展"非均匀下垫面多尺度地表蒸散发观测试验",采用密集的涡动相关仪、大孔径闪烁仪与自动气象站的观测矩阵,为揭示地表蒸散发的空间异质性,实现非均匀下垫面地表蒸散发的尺度扩展,发展和验证蒸散发模型提供基础数据。③应用试验:在流域上、中、下游分别开展针对积雪和冻土水文、灌溉水平衡和作物生长、生态耗水的综合观测试验,将观测数据和遥感产品用于上游分布式水文模型、中游地表水—地下水—农作物生长耦合模型、下游生态耗水模型,通过实证研究提升遥感在流域生态—水文集成研究和水资源管理中的应用能力。加强试验将在2012年5月起按中游、上游、下游的顺序展开,全流域持续观测期为2013—2015年。在各类试验的支持下,开展全流域生态—水文关键参量遥感产品生产,发展尺度转换方法,建立多源遥感数据同化系统。     

全新世黄土记录的古气候演化及磁化率和粒度参数灵敏性探讨

黄土是公认的三大古气候记录载体之一,全新世黄土由于位于顶层极易受到人类活动的影响,故研究程度不高.最近在甘肃会宁白草塬发现一个沉积连续、分辨率高、且保存完整的全新世黄土剖面,该剖面忠实地记录了全新世古气候演化,能够很好地与三宝洞和葫芦洞石笋氧同位素记录全新世古气候进行对比:二者共同记录了约12.5 ～11.5ka之间的Younger Dryas冷干事件;约10.5 ～5.2ka全新世适宜期,但是适宜期中气候变化具有不稳定性;5.2ka至今,气候较全新世适宜期慢慢变干变冷,二者相互印证了东亚季风区全新世古气候演化的一般过程;而驱动二者演化主要因素是太阳辐射量的变化.位于黄土高原西北边缘的会宁白草塬剖面中的磁化率和粒度两参数相比较:粒度较磁化率波动更频繁,记录古气候变化更灵敏.     

大口径管井降水在北京地铁施工中的应用

大口径管井降水方法是应用较为广泛的、成熟的地下水控制措施。但因施工准入门槛低,在土建施工造价中所占比重较小,往往得不到重视,常出现边坡失稳、底板隆起等重大损失。基于抽水试验成果完成方案设计,抓准施工质量关键点是实现良好降水效果的必要条件。